Why Matiang'i-Uhuru game plan is facing headwinds

The Jubilee Party favourite is discovering he may be playing the role of 2013's Kalonzo Musyoka in the wake of the turbulence his political game plan with former President Uhuru Kenyatta is encountering.

In what is threatening to derail what once appeared to be a strategic path to the presidency, the former CS has been treated to a baptism of fire since his endorsement.

DCP leader and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who is keen on a comeback after being hounded out by President William Ruto’s troops, has given all the signs that he’s no longer at ease with the former Interior CS.

His take is that the Jubilee activation is yet another plot by the regime to contain him in Mt Kenya, calling it a “red wheelbarrow”.

Gachagua has argued that Matiang’i has no numbers, holding that he is being used to undermine his influence in Mt Kenya by targeting the very numbers.

The unfolding political drama mirrors events from 12 years ago.

In his autobiography, "Against All Odds," Kalonzo reveals that the initial plan had been for him to run for President with Uhuru Kenyatta as his running mate, or vice versa.

This arrangement abruptly collapsed during what Kalonzo describes as a fateful night when Uhuru delivered the crushing message: "Stephen, we have decided that you should choose some other position, but not the presidency or deputy presidency."

Today, Matiang'i appears trapped in a similar political predicament.

Despite being endorsed by Jubilee as its presidential candidate, the ex-CS finds his ambitions constrained by the same brutal political arithmetic.

For pundits, the most immediate challenge to Matiang'i's ascendancy comes from Gachagua, whose political show has dramatically altered the opposition landscape.

Once content with kingmaker status, the impeached DP returned from a six-week United States tour with renewed presidential ambitions, albeit his compatriots have cast doubt he’d keep the push to the end.

Despite the uncertainty, his declaration has sent shockwaves through the fragile opposition coalition.

Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni openly cautioned that Gachagua's bid was disruptive to opposition unity.

Yet Gachagua remains unmoved, famously retorting that "power isn't passed over like a cigarette lighter”, touting to rivals his unmatched following in Mt Kenya.

The tension has triggered hostile exchanges between Gachagua's camp and Jubilee loyalists like Kioni and former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu.

Further complicating Matiang'i's path is the unwavering position of Wiper leader Kalonzo.

The former Vice President has drawn his own red line, saying 2027 is “now or never” for his presidential ambitions, having served as running mate to Raila Odinga in two previous elections.

“I am going for the presidency. It is now or never. If I don't go for it now, I will never go for it," Kalonzo said.

His calculations appear to be bearing fruit, as evidenced by recent campaign rallies in Kitui, where his colleagues endorsed him as their preferred presidential candidate.

Gachagua and other united opposition leaders, including former Attorney General Justin Muturi and former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi, made the call.

At a mammoth rally at Kalundu market in Kitui town, Gachagua declared to a charged crowd that "it is no longer about guesswork. We already have the vote numbers and the candidate. We are only waiting for the day".

The sentiments were restated at the Wiper's delegates October 10 meeting. Matiangi himself said he’d be ready to support Kalonzo if the team settles on the Wiper leader as the flagbearer.

“When that time comes, we will all sit together, consult everybody, and find a method of identifying one of us who’d be the first among equals. If that person were you (Kalonzo), I will support you,” the ex-CS said.

Political analysts watching the unfolding drama remain sceptical about Matiang'i's prospects for securing a top position in the opposition hierarchy.

Professor Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, observed that "the ex-CS doesn't have much chance as a running mate for the Kalonzo team".

He elaborated that Matiang'i's "chances for numbers are problematic" and noted that "the united opposition is more of a Gachagua-Kalonzo game, for purposes of getting the numbers".

Furthermore, Nyambuga highlighted that "Rigathi is uncomfortable with him because he represents Uhuru," concluding that Matiang'i's "chances of going higher are slim".

This assessment is echoed by other political observers who note that while the opposition may agree in principle on dislodging Ruto, the process of anointing a single candidate is fraught with danger.

Political analyst Calvin Muga summarised the challenge: "As long as there is fragmentation in the opposition, their chances of taking on William Ruto will be impossible".

A senior member of the Wiper Patriotic Front quipped that the most the ex-Interior CS can get is “a return to Harambee House in the same position”.

“Even the Prime Cabinet Secretary position that we initially thought we could give him is being eyed by Gachagua in the event his impeachment cases hold and he regains the leeway to hold public office,” the Wiper member said.

“We are working well aware that we need numbers and in that regard we are likely to look at Mt Kenya even if it’d be from the Eastern side.”

The numbers game appears to be working against Matiang'i, with the larger political forces aligning around the Kalonzo-Gachagua axis as the most numerically viable path to mounting a serious challenge to Ruto's re-election bid.

Further to this, for pundits, Gachagua, despite his impeachment woes, is likely to insist on the running mate slot even if it means endorsing an ally. If that’d be the case, they hold that Matiang’i’s options would be narrowed, and that “his best bet may even be to join Ruto”.

But Jubilee secretary general Kioni disagrees. “Hell, no. Take that to the bank. We have restated that we are still in Azimio and that is where we will remain to the end,” he told the Star in an interview.

He argued that there are many things to be done and that it was not the time to discuss positions to be taken by members of the opposition.

“We must have issues in mind and consider how our decisions affect us. We must not take the path where we make decisions that make other parties suffer,” Kioni said.

He argued that the coalition was yet to discuss roles each of them would be playing when they form government, “since Kenyans have issues they want addressed as a matter of priority.”

“We will engage with like-minded parties. Every person is trying to play their part. We will see which way out of the positions debacle when we get there,” the former Ndaragwa MP said.

Kioni said the Matiangi team knows where it is going. “We are working on a party that serves the people, not its leaders, and one that is governed by the principles of reconciliation and healing”.

But the reality working against Matiang'i is the brutal mathematics of coalition politics.

While he brings technical competence and administrative experience to the table, these attributes appear to be undervalued in comparison to the voting blocs controlled by Kalonzo and Gachagua.

Gachagua has been explicit about this numbers-based approach, maintaining that negotiations "will be based purely on numbers" while dismissing other considerations.

Kalonzo, while disagreeing on the criteria, arguing that factors like "record of service and integrity" should matter, has nonetheless embraced the alliance with Gachagua as essential to electoral success.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

As the 2027 elections approach, Fred Matiang'i finds himself in political limbo, the designated standard-bearer for a major political party yet increasingly marginalised in the opposition's internal negotiations. The very factors that made him an attractive candidate, his administrative competence, implementation skills, and national profile, appear to be losing value in the face of hard electoral mathematics.