Babu Owino's 2027 chess game leaves Raila, Ruto scratching heads

The firebrand legislator is raring for the seat, setting the stage for a titanic battle with the incumbent Johnson Sakaja, who currently enjoys the support of both the principals of Kenya Kwanza and Azimio coalitions.

Compellingly, Babu has employed a sophisticated strategy, an approach that has seen him forging unlikely alliances.

He is also leveraging his documented performance as a legislator and capitalising on the growing discontent with Sakaja's administration.

The incumbent faces an uphill task in his reelection bid, evidenced by the incessant impeachment calls by troops loyal to Raila and by extension, Rigathi Gachagua.

The President and the ODM leader recently intervened as MCAs, among them Robert Alai, Sakaja’s most formidable critic, mounted impeachment efforts against the county boss.

Amidst the tumult, Babuu has positioned himself as the solution to what Nairobi residents feel Sakaja has let them down on.

The MP has promised to dismantle cartels, which, he claims, have established themselves at City Hall.

“Your staff will only act the way they think you want the county to be run. If they know you are corrupt, they will follow suit. If they know you are a straightforward leader, they will also take cue,” Owino said.

He lists Nairobi’s problems as largely centred on drainage, roads, general infrastructure, garbage and insufficient supply of water, pledging to fix the mess when elected.

“A simple solution like devolving garbage collection to youth, women's groups can suffice and you won’t even see a leaf in this city,” he said.

As part of his 2027 polls calculus, the former student leader has been forging strategic alliances for the duel, and has lately been gravitating towards Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka.

The courtship saw the lawmaker officially endorse Kalonzo's presidential bid during a student leaders’ forum at the Wiper headquarters.

The MP simultaneously used the platform to urge young people to register as voters, stressing their power to shape the country's future.

Observers hold that in courting all constituencies, the overtures may help him win new vote bases, like the Kamba community, who are key to Nairobi election outcomes.

Babu is at the same time building bridges to Mt Kenya, recently holding a meeting with the Kikuyu Council of Elders, Nairobi chapter, pointing to efforts to reach out to the Kikuyu community.

They assured him of their full support in 2027 at the meeting attended by former Dagoretti South MP Dennis Waweru, pointing to possible negotiations for a ticket.

Waweru has himself been urging Kenyans, especially young and new voters, to register ahead of the 2027 polls.

Beyond political positioning, the Embakasi East MP’s gubernatorial bid draws significant credibility from his documented performance as a legislator.

The latest Infotrak rankings of MPs released in January this year identified him as the best-performing legislator in Kenya with an impressive approval rating of 72 per cent.

Recognition from a reputable polling firm provides powerful ammunition for a campaign, staging a contrast of his effective representation with Sakaja's troubled administration.

Babu has mounted a critique of the City Hall’s governance failures, framing his criticisms not as tribal concerns but as legitimate issues of governance.

He observes: "We see sewage all over, if it rains for 30 minutes, you can't walk in town, potholes [are] all over, we even now have goons in town to attack people. This is not why Sakaja was elected".

The MP has particularly emphasised corruption allegations flagged by the Auditor General.

His background as a recently admitted advocate lends additional weight to his credentials on legal and accountability matters.

Babu, who has been stealing the show in public appearances, the latest at Dalmas Otieno’s burial, has also criticised the quality of essential services.

Pundits say this makes him come out as a leader prioritising human welfare over political manoeuvring, a subtle jab at both Sakaja and his backers.

The Embakasi East MP has not spared Raila, his own political mentor, in his critiques. He has openly expressed displeasure with Raila's intervention to protect Sakaja.

"I was not happy even with what Raila did to call those MCAs," referencing Raila's meeting with Nairobi MCAs to shelve the Nairoib governor’s impeachment motion.

However, analysts remains divided on Babu’s prospects, with others arguing that Sakaja may make a comeback.

Sakaja, while defending his record, cites the Dishi na County – lunch for primary school children, revamped hospital services and beautification of the city as some of his achievements.

The county chief says he has also embarked on fixing illegal electricity connections and rolled out a jobs plan for the young people. “I still have more to offer,” he pledged at the recent Nairobi’s ‘Jukwaa la Usalama’ meeting.

Political analyst Dennis Odingo says the grand question is "whether Babu can be Nairobi governor without ODM leader Raila Odinga's support".

"Sakaja won without ODM support, so did Mike Sonko, while Waititu's bid flopped," suggesting that success requires a different coalition-building approach.

Babu also enjoys several structural advantages beyond his performance ratings.

His Embakasi East constituency is one of Nairobi's most populated, providing a substantial voter base from which to launch his countywide campaign.

His advocacy for Gen Z and victims of police brutality, spending endless hours in court defending youths arrested in protests, has earned him credibility.

Anderson Ojwang’, a political commentator, said, “Babu is far ahead of Sakaja. He has a wide network right from university, with a majority in every part of Nairobi. Where is Sakaja’s stronghold?”

“He (Babu) has organic support, and his support for Kalonzo delivers to him the Kamba votes. This is a plus. Luos and Luhya see him as their own, hence another vote block. Ruto has no support base in Nairobi,” he said.

For the observer, the MP’s performance is a plus. “Sakaja has failed and this may cost him. MCAs have identified with Owino and rejected Sakaja, even wanting to impeach him,” he said.

The coalition mathematics for Nairobi victory is complex, as analyst Odingo explains.

"You must get votes outside ODM and Mt Kenya bloc. If you rely on them solely, you are bound to fail. If Babu runs, what he needs is to convince some other communities because Nairobi is cosmopolitan".

Pundits argue that Gachagua would be a key factor in Babu’s success, and that his endorsement would give the lawmaker an upper hand.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

While the race remains fluid, Babu Owino has successfully established himself as a formidable contender who cannot be easily dismissed as a partisan stalwart. His outreach across the ethnic divide, performance credentials and sharp critique of Sakaja’s administration has created a political challenge that leaves national leaders uncertain. As one pundit observed, “they are unsure whether to confront, co-opt, or accommodate his ambitions”.