Rain expected in some parts of of the country/FILESenior Counsel Paul Muite has commended the Kenya Meteorological Department for its timely and accurate weather forecasts, saying the agency’s recent reports have proven vital as rains pound various parts of the country.
In its weekly weather outlook covering September 30 to October 6, 2025, the department had predicted rainfall across several regions despite prevailing dry and sunny conditions at the time.
The forecasts warned of possible impacts, particularly in flood-prone and low-lying areas, urging Kenyans to stay alert and follow official advisories.
True to the projections, heavy downpours have since been reported in different parts of the country, including Nairobi, where flash floods have disrupted transport and business activities.
The developments prompted Muite to publicly commend the weather agency, praising both the accuracy of its prediction and the timeliness of its communication to the public.
“Hongera Meteorological Services. Accurate weather forecast, rain, and timely information to Kenyans,” Muite wrote on his social media page on Saturday.
In their latest report, the weatherman has said rainfall
currently affecting various parts of the country is expected to intensify in
both amount and geographic coverage through to Sunday,
October 5, 2025.
According to a public weather alert, several regions are
likely to be affected, including the Central Highlands, particularly
Nairobi, as well as the Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, Western, and
North-Western regions.
The alert states:
"Isolated heavy rainfall of 20mm to
50mm in 24 hours, and in some places very heavy rainfall
exceeding 50mm in 24 hours, may occur over parts of these
regions."
The statement further warns that such intense rainfall may lead to "localized flooding, slippery roads, and possible disruptions."
Residents and travelers are advised to remain vigilant and make informed decisions regarding movement and outdoor activities during this period.
The Kenya Met has urged the public to monitor official updates and prepare for potential impacts, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
October typically marks the beginning of the short rains season in Kenya, which runs from October to December.
These rains are important for agriculture but also pose risks, particularly in urban areas such as Nairobi, where poor drainage systems frequently lead to flash floods.
At its core, weather forecasting is about observing what is happening in the sky today and using science and technology to predict what will happen tomorrow.
The process begins with observation. Around the world, thousands of weather stations, satellites, radars, and even balloons collect information about the atmosphere.
These instruments record key details such as temperature, air pressure, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover.
This raw data becomes the foundation for predicting weather. Without it, meteorologists would be working blindly.
Once the data is gathered, it is fed into supercomputers that use advanced mathematics and physics to describe how the atmosphere behaves.
This stage, known as numerical weather prediction, involves running massive computer models that simulate the Earth’s atmosphere.
The models take into account the laws of physics to project how air, moisture, and temperature will interact in the coming hours or days.
However, computers alone cannot give us a complete picture. This is where the skill of meteorologists comes in.
Experts study the model outputs, compare them with real-world observations, and use their training and experience to interpret what is most likely to happen.
For example, a sudden drop in air pressure combined with high humidity is a strong signal that rain or storms are approaching.
Once the forecast has been developed, it is communicated to the public through weather bulletins, advisories, or warnings.
These messages can range from simple daily updates, such as whether to carry an umbrella, to life-saving alerts in the case of floods, storms, or heatwaves.
The process does not end there.
Meteorologists constantly check the accuracy of their forecasts by comparing predictions with actual weather outcomes.
This verification process helps refine the models and improve future forecasts.
In short, weather forecasting is a blend of science, technology, and human expertise. It is not an exact science, sometimes forecasts are wrong, but thanks to advances in meteorology, predictions today are far more accurate than they were a few decades ago.
At its heart, the science of weather forecasting is about helping people prepare for the future by turning the mysteries of the sky into useful knowledge.
