The unspoken political tension between Matiang’i, Gachagua

The conflict has been triggered by Matiang’i’s move to join the Jubilee Party, which culminated in his unveiling in a colourful ceremony in Nairobi on Friday.

 The decision has exposed deep fissures and suspicions in the ‘United Opposition’ as the country's political landscape reshapes ahead of the 2027 general election.

 To demonstrate the political suspicion, while Matiang’i attended the Jubilee National Delegates Convention, all the other opposition bigwigs attended a similar event staged by Martha Karua.

 Apart from Gachagua, the Karua-led NDC was also attended by Kalonzo Musyoka, Justin Muturi and Eugene Wamalwa.

 While he has not spoken openly, Kalonzo too could be having misgivings with Matiang’i, following former president Uhuru Kenyatta's backing.

 Uhuru was seen as the force that convinced Kalonzo to back Raila in 2022, with an alleged promise that 2027 would be his turn.

 People close to Gachagua see Matiang’i’s joining of Jubilee as a direct threat. They believe the move is not just about joining a party, but is a plan to undermine Gachagua’s influence.

 Some even think that Uhuru is behind it, using Matiang’i to challenge Gachagua in his own political stronghold, the Mt Kenya region.

 The criticism from the DCP leader’s side has been strong.

 Cleophas Malala, a deputy leader in Gachagua’s party, is leading the charge. He said Jubilee’s return is meant to “destroy and break DCP to water down Gachagua’s popularity.”

 He warned Jubilee to stay away if they are not planning to work together with the opposition.

 “The 2027 presidential candidate and flag bearer is none other than Gachagua,” the former Kakamega senator said.

 A lawyer and ally of Gachagua, Ndegwa Njiru, has also spoken out. He called Matiang’i a “state project,” suggesting his political comeback is being managed by powerful people, not a genuine effort by Jubilee.

 Njiru said Matiang’i is a ‘political novice’ in the opposition and could cause a split of their votes, helping their common rival, President William Ruto.

 Njiru also questioned Matiang’i’s loyalty to the opposition agreement, adding that the group of six potential candidates, which includes Matiang’i and Gachagua, had agreed that each would focus on building support in their home region.

 But, according to Njiru, Matiang’i has “avoided his own people” and is instead focusing on Mt Kenya, which is Gachagua’s stronghold. “He is not a man you can look in the eye and trust,” Njiru added.

 However, those on Matiang’i’s side tell a different story, holding that he is simply making a smart political choice.

 Nyambega Gisesa, UPA national chairman and Rigoma MCA, said, “Fred Matiang’i is a presidential candidate with the right to choose the party to use.”

 While defending Matiang’i’s right to choose his political vehicle, he explained that they are building a coalition with Jubilee and other parties to create a stronger opposition.

“Matiang’i is a presidential candidate with the right to choose the party to use. He also has the right to choose which coalition to work with,” Gisesa said.

 He said the move is part of building a broader coalition framework with Jubilee and other like-minded parties, a normal step in opposition politics.

 Gisesa asked for the fighting to stop. He told Malala to “stop theatrics” and let each side campaign for their candidate.

 He said the real goal is to challenge Ruto in the next election. “Our common enemy is Ruto, so let's stop the theatrics,” he said.

 This growing disagreement is a major test for the opposition. While they all say they want to unite against the government, Gachagua and Matiang’i’s personal ambitions and distrust have got in the way.

 While their camps trade accusations and warnings, the underlying question remains whether this internal competition will strengthen the opposition through healthy debate or fatally weaken it.

 The group of six prominent leaders, including Karua, Kalonzo, Muturi, Eugene, Gachagua and Matiang'i, has yet to settle on a single flagbearer.

 Each of them, however, has expressed interest in running for office.

 In the same spirit, Matiang’i’s alignment with Jubilee is widely seen as a strategic step to bolster his position within the competition.

 However, from the perspective of Gachagua’s allies, this is no simple political realignment. They view Matiang’i’s move as a deliberate and calculated strategy aimed squarely at undermining the former deputy president.

 The belief in Gachagua's camp is that Matiang’i is being propelled by Uhuru to checkmate the DCP leader and eat into his stronghold.

 This perception has transformed a potential united front into a fierce rivalry.

 Malala framed Jubilee's re-emergence not as a positive development but as a hostile force out to frustrate Gachagua’s efforts.

 “The party being unveiled has come to destroy and break DCP to water down Gachagua’s popularity,” Malala said.

 He went on, saying, “Jubilee must be warned that if they are not going to be part of the 'United Opposition', they shouldn’t come to divide Gachagua’s stronghold”.

 He dismissively labelled Jubilee as “a red wheelbarrow... that has no good intentions for DCP”.

 For pundits, the tension between Gachagua and Matiang’i is more than a personal rivalry as it reflects a crisis of political legitimacy and direction in Kenya.

 The situation also highlights the complex and often shifting nature of Kenyan political alliances amid ongoing speculation about potential realignments, including a possible truce between Ruto and Uhuru, who both may see Gachagua as a common political threat.

 If such a reconciliation were to occur, it could completely reshape the political battlefield, potentially sidelining Gachagua and altering the calculus for Matiang’i and others.

 INSTANT ANALYSIS

 The unfolding drama between Gachagua and Matiang’i is a critical test for the opposition. It reveals the difficulties of managing multiple ambitious leaders within a coalition that has yet to unite behind a single vision or candidate. The accusations of being a state project and of hypocrisy, point to an obvious lack of trust that could prove retrogressive to a united front. While the Gachagua camp views the Mountain as its rightful political base, Matiang’i’s move signals a fierce contest for that very ground.