MOSOKU: Ex-DP Rigathi charts game plan as opposition plots 2002-like coalition

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has declared himself a frontrunner in the 2027 election, saying he is the best suited to vanquish President William Ruto.

His several declarations - first on not running, then on being in the race – have raised both political and legal questions on the suitability his candidature given that he was impeached as DP in October last year.

On September 13, Gachagua announced his intention to run against Ruto in 2027.

Article 75 (3) of the Constitution states that a person who has been dismissed or otherwise removed from office for contravention of the provisions of Chapter Six on integrity is disqualified from holding any other state office.

Some lawyers argue, however, that the former DP can still run for the highest office if he has a pending appeal or is cleared by the courts.

Another group of analysts says Gachagua is building a base and consolidating his Mt Kenya stronghold for purposes of negotiating with other opposition leaders.

They include former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Those espousing this school of thought say if Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party commands the mountain, then he will have many MPs on his side.

His numbers would give him an advantage in a post-election arrangement in which he can bargain for a bigger stake in the new government.

The opposition coalition is made up DCP, Kalonzo’s Wiper Patriotic Front, Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party, Eugene’s Democratic Action Party, former Attorney General Justin Muturi’s Democratic Party and the Jubilee Party represented by chairman Torome Saitoti. Matiang’i has yet to name a party, although he is linked to Jubilee and former President uhuru Kenyatta.

Last Monday, Gachagua doubled down on his declaration to run, saying the year 2027 is the time and he is firmly in the presidential race for a “better Kenya where every Kenyan will participate in governance of their country.”

"We shall liberate Kenya, no matter what!” the DCP leader wrote in a statement on his social media pages.

“It is a matter of time. The year 2027 is the time; I am firmly in the presidential race for a better Kenya where every Kenyan will participate in governance of their country.”

The opposition leaders are currently holding discussions on coalition building. They are studying a relevant document authored by former Agriculture Minister Kipruto arap Kirwa and are expected to hold a three-day retreat to align their strategies. The date has not been set.

“All of us have a right to declare our intentions to vie for president but we will sit and discuss with a view to getting one consensus candidate,” DP leader Muturi said.

Muturi dismisses fears that a declaration Gachagua will rattle the opposition and grant President Ruto an easy run to a second term.

“Moreover, we are all in agreement that rescuing the country from the mismanagement and the plunder by William Ruto is greater than any one individual’s ambitions,” he said.

Lawyer Edward Muriu who is also Gatanga MP and a close ally of Gachagua supports his views. Muriu emphasised that the former DP has a right to express his ambitions.

He contends, however, that in the end, the DCP leader and other like-minded leaders will sit down and craft a winning coalition that ensures President Ruto becomes a one-term president.

“As member of DCP and the attorney of the party, I can confirm to you that we have agreed in principle on what we call a multi-pronged approach whereby you must go out and consolidate your base,” Muriu said.

“His (Gachagua’s) stronghold is the mountain, just as Kalonzo has Ukambani, Matiang’i has Kisii and Eugene and Natembeya are in Western.”

The Gatanga MP said once each of the leaders consolidates their base, they would then formally hold meetings to deliberate on who will be the presidential candidate, the deputy and any other positions. He said DCP has shown that it is amenable to unity after foregoing the Mbeere North parliamentary seat in favour of Muturi’s DP.

“All presidential candidates will sit down and agree and on a coalition. Him (Gachagua) declaring that he is in the race does not negate or dilute the urge for the one-term for Ruto quest,” he added.

Nyando MP Jared Okello, who is allied to the broad-based government, said Gachagua may be upping his negotiation stakes within the opposition since once impeached, no one can run for office.

Should the DCP leader eventually be able run, Okello said the opposition will disintegrate, thus splitting the vote and easily providing President Ruto with a second term.

“If he happens to run, because a court case is pending (presumption of innocence) the opposition will disintegrate, everyone waiting to run. Ruto will sail to victory at 5 am,” the lawmaker said.

Lawyer Ahmednasir Abdullahi said that Gachagua as the undisputed kingpin of central Kenya cannot be wished away. As such, he said, the former DP should be the natural-rational-obvious choice as the presidential candidate for a united opposition as he can easily bring three million to four million votes to the negotiating table.

The lawyer argued that Gachagua commands huge numbers and is followed closely by Kalonzo who can command about 2.4 million votes.

These numbers compare to Matiang'i with 300,000 to 400,000 projected votes, Eugene with an estimated 100,000 to 150,000 votes, Muturi with 100,000 to 120,000 and Karua with 100,000 to 200,000 projected votes.

“With this tabulation, the opposition shouldn't waste time on useless debates,” Ahmednasir said. “They need to urgently agree on the ministries-portfolios some will be given and agree on a Gachagua-Musyoka ticket. This clarity of thought and management of hope is vital.”

Constitutional lawyer Charles Kanjama says Gachagua can still contest for president as long as there there’s an appeal in court.

Whereas Constitution Chapter six on integrity bars impeached persons from running for office, Article 99 allows one to run for office as long as there is a pending appeal.

“Currently the former Deputy President is not stopped from vying for president, with his appeal pending in the High Court,” Kanjama said. 

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei said, however, that the former DP may be upping his stakes within the opposition but will not vie unless the High Court quashes the impeachment.

“When you are impeached as Deputy President, you are not to serve even as chairman of a funeral committee,” he said. “How then can you run for president if you can’t chair a simple committee?”

MP Muriu said that opposition leaders will continue meeting and will make a major announcement on their working formula in mid-2026 after consolidating their bases.

“It will be a 2002 moment definitely,” Muriu said when asked about the determination of the opposition to remain united. He referred to the 2002 election in which the opposition united behind Mwai Kibaki to beat ruling Kanu’s Uhuru Kenyatta.