Ruto, Raila mount double attack to tackle Matiang’i

President William Ruto and his partner in the broad-based government, Raila Odinga, have mounted a double-pronged strategy to counter the influence of former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i in the Gusii region.

In a calculated move to secure their flanks ahead of the 2027 general election, they aim to counter the perceived threat of a Matiang’i presidential candidacy, which has upended the traditional political calculus of Kisii and Nyamira counties.

The concern within the broad-based side is palpable after the emergence of Matiang’i, a seasoned administrator with a formidable reputation from his tenure at the Interior ministry.

The ex-Interior CS has provided the Gusii nation with a formidable homegrown figure to rally behind as a kingpin, changing the political dynamics to a great extent.

For Ruto, a region that voted overwhelmingly for his opponent (Raila) in 2022 is slipping further from his grasp.

For Raila, the backup of his Nyanza support is showing cracks, with key allies defecting to the Matiang’i side, threatening his stature as the region’s political force.

Owing to the mutual vulnerability, the two have forged an alliance, ostensibly to help manage the uprising against ODM and UDA in the region, coming amid perceptions that Raila himself is dented, too.

The two principals have reportedly agreed that facing off against each other in their respective strongholds would only splinter votes and hand an advantage to opportunistic opponents. 

They believe that they can make an impact from a united front, having learned the cost of going it alone.

This strategy was on full display on Thursday when President Ruto and Raila hosted a meeting of Gusii grassroots leaders at State House, Nairobi.

The gathering, led by Kisii Governor Simba Arati and attended by Education Cabinet Secretary Ogamba Migosi and Solicitor General Shadrack Mose is the second in a month.

The seemingly back-to-back conclaves signal the urgency both leaders attach to the region.

In a statement after the meeting, President Ruto framed the alliance not in terms of raw politics, but of historic opportunity.

“We have before us a rare and historic opportunity to make every part of our country truly prosperous,” he said, before unveiling development carrots for the region.

For Kisii, the President promised transformative investments: 15,000 affordable housing units worth Sh30 billion, Sh2.5 billion for modern tertiary student hostels, and four state-of-the-art markets valued at Sh2.4 billion.

For Nyamira, he pledged life-changing projects worth over Sh16 billion, including 7,000 housing units, student hostels, and three modern markets.

The sweetener was a commitment to connect over 32,000 homesteads across both counties to reliable electricity, a move designed to unlock business and endear the national government to the populace.

The delegation, in return, endorsed President Ruto’s re-election bid and pushed for the swift completion of the promised mega projects.

However, beneath the surface of this show of unity, the Gusii political landscape remains deeply fractured.

There are several ODM MPs who are working with Matiang’i, notably Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi and Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka.

In the same vein, Ruto's allies in the region face a serious challenge and have been treated to pockets of hostile receptions when undertaking their political activities.

The faction allied to Matiang’i has dismissed these overtures as inconsequential and politically desperate, saying the ground had already shifted in favour of the former CS.

UPA national chairman and Rigoma MCA Nyambega Gisesa told the Star on Friday that the meeting was inconsequential.

“The people of Kisii have decided on Fred Matiang’i. He is the preferred candidate, and no one can change that now. The meeting had no impact because the things the President said are the same ones he said when he met us in Kakamega two years ago,” Gisesa said.

“I don’t see anything coming out of the engagements that will be gainful for Ruto and Raila,” the MCA said.

His sentiments were echoed by Kitutu Chache South MP Antony Kibagendi, one of several ODM MPs openly working with Matiang’i, who argued that those backing Ruto were “signing their political obituaries.”

He accused State House visitors of being motivated by personal gain rather than community interest, alleging they were being used to undermine the former CS.

“Those who are visiting State House are after their stomachs… The voters will deal with them,” Kibagendi warned.

He further contended that the project figures were exaggerated, claiming the actual number of housing units planned was closer to 5,000, not 22,000.

“It is the same old story. These are ongoing projects that we have spoken about for ages, only that the housing units are exaggerated,” he said.

Political analyst Martin Andati painted the picture of the Herculean assignment lying ahead of the broad-based government partners.

“Kisii is going to be a very hard nut to crack for the broad-based team. One, because of Matiang'i, who is carrying the hopes, fears and aspirations of the Gusii nation. Two, the Gusii nation has traditionally had two ministers in government, but this time they have got only one.”

“Also, for PS, they have always had three or so but this time they have got the Solicitor General and PS Isaboke, which were belated appointments, looking like an afterthought,” Andati explained.

This view is supported by Prof Olang Sana of Maseno University, who believes the administration’s strategy may be too little, too late.

“Ruto’s general strategy for Kisii cannot help change the dynamics. It is too late,” the don said, highlighting the deep-seated nature of the challenge.

In March, Raila met Gusii MCAs after receiving a lukewarm reception in a tour he conducted immediately after ODM signed a pact with UDA, which pointed to the uphill battle.

The current charm offensive, focused on development priorities, is a direct response to that initial coldness.

Thursday's meeting came amid Ruto’s renewed outreach to Gusii leaders, with the focus remaining on development priorities for Kisii and Nyamira.

Yet, for many in the region, the allure of development is tempered by a desire for authentic representation. 

Political leaders who snubbed the meeting argued that the State House delegations would have nothing to add to the region.

They held that as a county, they had their allocations as decided by the Commission on Revenue Allocation.

“No one should lie to us that we can get more as a county or assembly by visiting the President at State House,” an MCA said.

INSTANT ANALYSIS

The battle for the soul of Gusii is now firmly joined. On one side stands the combined machinery of the presidency and the opposition, armed with the power of incumbency and promises of development. On the other stands a populist movement rallying around a local son, Matiang’i, fueled by a desire for a first-ever Gusii president and a growing perception that the political order has for years taken their support for granted. As 2027 draws nearer, the twin attack from State House will be tested against the formidable groundswell of a region that believes its time has finally come.