The October to December short rains
are expected to start late and end early in several regions and below-average
rainfall is projected in many areas, the Kenya Meteorological Department has
announced.
Temperatures will generally be warmer in most areas.
The Met said Central Kenya, including Nairobi, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Kiambu, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi, will get rains between the third and fourth week of October.
They will likely end by the third to fourth week in December. Precipitation is expected to be fair to poor.
Western counties of Busia, Vihiga, Kakamega and Bungoma and in Nyanza and Rift Valley, rainfall will continue from September through late December, with fair to good distribution.
In Turkana and Samburu, however, the onset and cessation remain undefined, with only occasional rainfall expected.
Coastal counties of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and part of Tana River, will receive rains from late November to late December, with possible occasional showers in October.
Narok will get rains from late October to early November, continuing into January next year.
Meanwhile, the southeastern counties of Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta, Kajiado and Tana River will receive rains from late November until December.
In the northern counties of Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Isiolo, the Met said the onset and cessation of rains remain undefined.
“The October-December rainfall is expected to be poorly distributed, both in time and space, across much of the country,” Met deputy director Charles Mugah said.
“Western Kenya may experience fair to good distribution, but central, eastern and coastal regions will have poor rainfall marked by prolonged dry spells and occasional isolated storms.”
Mugah said the forecast was based on both dynamical models and statistical analysis, comparing current conditions with similar years, particularly 2021.
He warned of a 55-90 per cent chance of mild drought in many areas, especially in eastern and Central, with a 20-55 per cent risk of severe drought.
Most regions will be warmer than average, except in parts of Western where near-normal or cooler conditions are expected.
Mugah urged Kenyans to stay alert and follow Met updates, as short-term drivers such as tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation could influence rainfall patterns.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a global weather pattern of enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall and wind that moves eastward around Earth's equator, typically in a cycle of 30 to 60 days. It makes precise prediction difficult. He said the expected rainfall from the October to December rains season is expected to have both negative and positive impacts in agriculture and other sectors.
