Kenya faces the risk of a severe rice shortage and soaring food prices if orders
blocking the importation of 500,000 metric tonnes of duty-free rice is upheld,
Cabinet Secretary for Agriculture Mutahi Kagwe has said.
The court is scheduled to give directions
tomorrow, August 15, 2025, at 2:30 pm, on whether to lift the conservatory
orders obtained by a farmers’ party challenging the Cabinet’s decision to allow
the imports.
In an affidavit filed in court, Agriculture and
Livestock Development Cabinet Secretary (CS) Sen. Mutahi Kagwe warned that
Kenya’s domestic rice production meets only 20% of the country’s annual demand,
leaving a deficit of about 1 million metric tonnes (MT) that is largely met
through imports.
Kenya’s annual rice demand stands at
approximately 1.3 million MT.
With consumption per capita projected to hit 29 kilograms in 2025, and the
population estimated at 54.79 million, the national requirement is expected to
reach 1.5 million MT this year — or roughly 125,000 MT per month.
Between July and December 2025 alone, the country will need an estimated
625,000 MT.
“The current retail price of Grade 1 milled
white rice has already risen to between Sh190 and Sh 220per kilogram, up from
last year’s duty-free period average of Sh150 per kilogram,” Kagwe stated.
“If duty-free imports are blocked, prices are likely to surge further,
worsening the cost-of-living crisis.”
The CS said the Kenya National Trading
Corporation (KNTC) has already signed contracts with the Mwea Rice Growers
Cooperative to purchase local stocks for supply to government institutions.
However, he noted that available stocks from farmers currently stand at only
20,000 (50kg) bags, far below the projected demand of over 350,000 bags
required by key institutions.
According to Kagwe’s affidavit, the Ministry
of Education needs 130,000 bags of Komboka rice, the State Department for
Special Programmes requires 90,000 bags (Komboka), the State Department for
Correctional Services has requested 60,000 bags (Sindano), and the Kenya
Defence Forces requires 40,000 bags (SPR).
Other security and service agencies — including the Administration Police,
General Service Unit, National Youth Service, and the Kenya Police Service — also
have significant rice needs.
Kagwe argued that without duty-free imports,
both households and critical public institutions could face acute shortages.
He stressed that the government’s move to allow the duty-free shipments was
intended to stabilize supply and protect consumers from runaway prices.
“The importation is necessary to stabilise
prices and avert a potential food crisis,” he emphasised.
The case has drawn attention across the
agricultural sector, with farmers’ groups divided over the policy.
Supporters of the court petition argue that duty-free imports could flood
the market and undermine local growers, while proponents say imports are
essential to fill the massive supply gap and protect consumers from price
shocks.
Kenya’s rice deficit has persisted for years,
and with climate-related challenges affecting yields in key growing areas, the
gap between production and consumption remains wide.
According to official statistics,
local production, mainly from the Mwea Irrigation Scheme, covers less than
one-fifth of the country’s needs.
The Kerugoya court’s decision will determine
whether the shipment of 500,000 MT of duty-free rice goes ahead or remains
blocked, a ruling that could directly impact market prices in the coming weeks.
