The sway of key regions on the 2027 election is likely to be signalled by the up-coming by-elections in different parts of the country.
Among the areas the by-elections will be held are Coast, Western and Northeastern regions, key political battlegrounds that are likely to decide the 2027 poll.
Each of the sides have undertaken political activities in the respective regions, with Deputy President Kithure Kindiki hosting leaders from Coast region at his Karen residence on Tuesday.
The IEBC reports that there are 23 pending by-elections in various electoral areas. These include the Senate (1), National Assembly (6) and Member for County Assemblies (16).
The vacant parliamentary seats are Baringo Senate seat (Rift Valley), Banisa MP (Northeastern), Malava MP(Western), Magarini (Coast), Ugunja (Nyanza), Kasipul (Nyanza) and Mbeere North (Mt Kenya).
The by-elections are expected to offer the Kenya Kwanza administration and the opposition an opportunity to evaluate their influence or lack of it through the polls as they strategise for 2027.
Already, the recently launched DCP outfit has announced the nomination of lawyer Edgar Busiega to vie for the Malava parliamentary seat in Kakamega county and Aden Mohamed for the Banisa MP seat in Mandera county.
Busiega will face off with Seth Panyako, who is aspiring the seat on the DAP-K ticket.
The stakes are high and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi (ODM) says any party that is allied or associated with the government will get it rough in Malava.
“ODM has lost popularity because of the agreement with UDA,” Amisi said, adding those allied to UDA will only have to watch the polls on YouTube.
“There is resistance against the Kenya Kwanza administration on the ground, including Malava. They are going to vote against anything related to [President] William Ruto. For UDA, they can’t even step there.”
Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi has also twice hosted community leaders from Malava in what is widely believed to be part of the plot by government to get the parliamentary seat. He is expected to lead UDA campaigns in the constituency.
On one side of the political divide is President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, who have since signed a cooperation deal .
In Western, the two opposing camps will be seeking momentum to fight for the more than 2.2 million votes in the region as of 2022 IEBC data, comprising 841,139 in Kakamega, 644,233 in Bungoma, 406,569 in Busia and 304,765 in Vihiga.
Trans Nzoia, which is geographically in the Rift Valley but has a huge Luhya population, has an estimated 395,000 voters.
The battle in Magarini is likely to point at the side that will secure the 1.96 million votes from the Coast, as will Banisa in Northeastern, which in the 2022 poll had 882,677 votes.
With ODM leader Raila Odinga’s announcement that he will back Ruto up to the 2027 election, it means they will have locked the Rift Valley and Nyanza blocs.
On the other hand, impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have locked Central and Lower Eastern regions.
In July 2021, UDA’s Njuguna Kawanjiku beat Jubilee’s Kariri Njama in the Kiambaa by-election, an outcome that was reflected in the Mt Kenya voting pattern at the General Election.
Earlier, in May 2021, the Jubilee ruling party yet again suffered a major setback in what was its stronghold in 2013 and 2017 after losing in the Juja by-election to the little-known People's Empowerment Party.
The party had also lost the Rurii ward seat in Nyandarua county to UDA, then a new party.
