While the opposition leadership is increasingly zeroing in on Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and former Interior Minister Fred Matiang’i, the outcome of the ruling will be a major determinant in how the opposition ticket will be decided.
Having been impeached, Gachagua is barred from occupying public office.
In the event the courts uphold his impeachment, it is likely to be a blessing for Matiang’i, whom Gachagua may back as the candidate deputised by Kalonzo or vice versa.
However, in the event the impeachment is overturned, Gachagua, who has worked hard to galvanise the populous Mt Kenya vote bloc and sustain the anti-Ruto campaign, will be eligible to vie as President or running mate.
This is likely to complicate matters for Matiang’i.
Matiang’i has already been endorsed by former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party and has started preparing the ground for his run.
Arguably, the former CS in the Uhuru administration draws national goodwill and has a soft spot in Mt Kenya region, which would be an incentive for Gachagua to endorse him.
However, Gachagua has expressed his dissatisfaction with Matiang’i coming to the negotiation table on the Jubilee ticket as it will cause trouble to his Democracy for the Citizens Party in Central Kenya.
Consequently, in the event Gachagua is cleared to run and matters come to a head, Matiang’i could be sacrificed at the altar of the DCP and Wiper alliance.
Political analyst Herman Manyora acknowledges this, noting that as it is, Gachagua controls the entire Mt Kenya region, and the only real conflict would be if Uhuru decided to back someone like Matiang’i while he wants to vie or back Kalonzo.
Allies of the former DP have also queried Matiang’i’s capacity to fiercely campaign against Ruto.
Political commentator Wahome Thuku, who is eyeing the Othaya MP seat, has described Matiang’i as a “townhall kind of campaigner”.
“He is the guy who likes explaining what needs to be done and showing where it’s going wrong and why,” Wahome says.
“For the record, I will mark his name on the ballot any day. Unfortunately, 70 per cent of Kenyans don't understand that townhall or boardroom language. Like it or not, Kenyans want someone who will hit the other with four heavy words.”
However, political analyst Martin Andati argues that the impeachment is likely to be overturned as the proceedings ought to have stopped the moment Gachagua was taken ill, whether it was real or stage-managed.
“He has strong grounds based on fair administrative justice, which emphasises the right of every person to receive administrative actions that are expeditious, efficient, lawful, reasonable and procedurally fair,” Andati told the Star.
And when that happens, he said, Gachagua will be eligible to vie or occupy public office.
He, however, said Gachagua is unlikely to vie lest he divides the opposition, and is likely to back one of the opposition figures instead.
“He is the glue that is holding the opposition together. He is the one who looked for Martha Karua, Kalonzo, who came with Eugene Wamalwa, brought in [Justin] Muturi and reached out to Matiang’i,” Andati said.
“He is also the one who has energised the opposition, and he would not want any cracks.”
Gachagua and Kalonzo have in recent weeks intensified joint rallies, seeking to consolidate their backyards, which they have christened “cousins”.
Based on the 2022 IEBC statistics, Gachagua’s Mt Kenya backyard has 4.8 million votes. This comprises 1.3 million votes from Mt Kenya East and 3.4 million votes in the vast Mt Kenya West.
Kalonzo’s Ukambani region has 1.6 million votes. Together, the two leaders have 6.5 million votes to mobilise.
On the other hand, Matiang’i’s Gusii region has a partly 960,293 votes.
