Inside the numbers and fresh push to remove Ruto in 2027
Critics argue that without Raila’s support, Ruto’s administration would be vulnerable in the polls.
by JAMES MBAKA
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President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga in Homa Bay. PHOTO/PCS.
The push to make President William Ruto a one-term leader in 2027 has triggered a major opposition movement, threatening a repeat of Mwai Kibaki’s 2002 Narc moment that swept Kanu from power.Then a united opposition led by Kibaki and Raila Odinga rallied Kenyans under the Narc movement to deliver Kanu’s most devastating defeat in its 24-year grip on the country’s leadership.
While the opposition faces the daunting task of uniting behind a single presidential candidate, President Ruto is pushing back, dismissing the one-term campaign as far-fetched.
“They said I’d never be president. I won’t serve any term, yet I am serving my first term here. Now they say I won’t win a second term. Just wait until I’m re-elected; what excuses will they make then? Wao sio Mungu!’’ President Ruto said this week.
Despite warnings from security agencies, the one-term clarion call has become the central slogan of the opposition's 2027 campaign, exposing growing public dissatisfaction with the government as the country barrels toward the next general election.
As opposition heavyweights consolidate their traditional bases and venture into new regions, Ruto is also entrenching his influence, storming former opposition strongholds in a bid to tilt the scales in his favour.
However, political pundits warn that the one-term campaign may face headwinds, especially following Ruto’s budding alliance with his 2022 rival and veteran opposition leader, Raila.
While the ODM leader is yet to publicly endorse Ruto’s re-election, his recent openness to collaborate with the President and allow access to his political strongholds suggests a possible alliance.
Critics argue that without Raila’s support, Ruto’s administration would be vulnerable in 2027, especially if the opposition fields a united front.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua—once dismissed as a minor regional player—has shaken Ruto’s camp with an aggressive mobilisation campaign in the Mt Kenya region, threatening to deny the President more than 3.5 million votes.
His recent launch of the Democracy for Citizens Party forms the core of his 2027 strategy, as he tours the region in an attempt to consolidate support behind his new outfit amid rivalries from other local factions.
Gachagua has unleashed scathing attacks on Ruto’s Mt Kenya allies, vowing that his DCP will sweep the region in 2027 and significantly erode support for the UDA.
Earlier this week, Gachagua laid out a back-to-back strategy to lock out UDA from Mt Kenya during meet-the-people tours in Kiambu county.
Addressing supporters, the former DP urged voters in Kikuyu and Dagoretti South constituencies to elect DCP candidates.
“I want you to ensure that you give me foot soldiers by electing governors and MPs under the DCP banner in 2027,” Gachagua said.
His call to reject UDA-backed leaders in Mt Kenya could be a major blow to President Ruto, who analysts say risks failing to secure the constitutionally required 25 per cent of the vote in at least 24 counties without the region’s backing.
Mt Kenya, which includes Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Laikipia, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nakuru and Nyandarua counties, comprises 62 constituencies out of Kenya’s 290.
In the 2022 presidential election, Ruto garnered 7,176,141 votes (50.5 per cent) against Raila’s 6,942,930 (48.8 per cent). Ruto’s win was bolstered by overwhelming support from Mt Kenya, where he secured 18 senatorial seats and 103 parliamentary seats.
According to Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, a diplomacy and international relations expert, 2027 is the opposition’s election to lose.
Mwangangi argues that Ruto stands no chance against a Gachagua-Kalonzo-Matiang’i axis and predicts a generational political shift driven by youth.
“When you look at the country right now, I don’t see where Ruto’s victory will come from. Over 10 million voters have united to send him home and make him a one-term president,” Mwangangi said.
“The time has come for Kenyans to show that they can remove leaders who do not meet expectations.”
IEBC data shows that Mt Kenya delivered 3.5 million of Ruto’s 7.1 million votes—underlining the region's critical role in his 2022 victory.
But realignment is underway. Gachagua is challenging UDA's grip despite being replaced by former Tharaka Nithi Senator Kithure Kindiki.Analysts believe the exodus of Mt Kenya political heavyweights from UDA could be the death knell for Ruto’s re-election hopes.
Since his elevation in October last year, Kindiki has struggled to unify the region amid rising dissent, including opposition from Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire.
A by-election in Mbeere North—triggered by Geoffrey Ruku’s appointment to the Cabinet—will be closely watched as a bellwether for national politics.
The anti-Ruto wave in Mt Kenya is seen as the biggest threat to his re-election, as more regional bigwigs rally behind Gachagua.
Former Cabinet Secretaries Justin Muturi (Public Service), Mithika Linturi (Agriculture), and Peter Munya (Agriculture) have joined the anti-Ruto push, alongside Martha Karua of the People’s Liberation Party.
In addition, Gachagua is working with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Last week, Kalonzo hosted these leaders at his Tseikuru residence in Kitui, signalling unity and a serious bid for power in 2027.
The team then toured Ukambani, promising to remain united to the ballot.
“We will make whatever sacrifices necessary to ensure William Ruto is a one-term President,” Gachagua declared.Although internal rivalries and ambitions remain a challenge, Gachagua, Kalonzo, Karua and Matiang’i have all declared presidential ambitions and pledged to work together to defeat Ruto.The opposition is eyeing four million Ukambani votes—including diaspora support—across Makueni, Machakos and Kitui counties.Gachagua recently challenged Kalonzo to double the Ukambani vote tally to qualify for Mt Kenya’s support, arguing that the current two million votes are insufficient.
“Politics is about numbers,” Gachagua said. “If you want us to work together, register your youth. Once you reach 3.5 to four million votes, come talk to me. In Mt Kenya, we’re aiming for 10 million votes.”
The former Mathira MP’s plans include registering five million new voters across Mt Kenya to hit the 10 million mark. Analysts, however, suggest the region can only deliver about three million new voters.
In 2022, the 10 Mt Kenya counties, including Laikipia and Nakuru, had 5.7 million registered voters. The region voted overwhelmingly for Uhuru Kenyatta in 2017 and for Ruto in 2022.
Ruto’s Rift Valley base, comprising six counties—Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, Kericho, and Bomet—contributed 2.2 million voters.
If Ukambani grows to three million and votes with Mt Kenya at an 85 per cent turnout rate, the opposition could command 10 million votes. Adding Kisii and Nyamira’s combined vote base of one million, plus another million in the diaspora, raises the opposition tally to 12 million.
Nairobi, with 2.41 million registered voters, remains pivotal. Raila beat Ruto here in 2022 by more than 200,000 votes.
Amid the one-term campaign, Ruto has partnered with Raila to inherit his support bases and offset losses from his fallout with Gachagua.
Luo Nyanza has at least 1.8 million votes and could rise to four million in 2027, including diaspora. If Raila backs Ruto, the President could count on around three million Luo votes.
This once-unthinkable alliance has sparked fierce debate, especially given Raila’s historic pro-democracy stance and Ruto's controversial governance record.
The alliance was formed after Gen Z-led protests nearly toppled Kenya Kwanza, prompting Raila to support Ruto in exchange for Cabinet appointments for ODM.Beyond Luo Nyanza, Ruto is eyeing Western—Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia and Vihiga—which has 2.2 million votes.However, the region is shifting. Natembeya's Tawe movement seeks to replace entrenched figures like Mudavadi and Wetang’ula, calling for generational change.
“The people of Western Kenya deserve better leadership. Don’t worship politicians who have failed you,”Natembeya said.
The government’s controversial leasing of Nzoia, Chemelil and Muhoroni sugar factories has further strained Ruto’s appeal in the region.
Media scholar Dr Elias Mokua claims Raila has lost his identity, saying the opposition now belongs to Gen Z, Gachagua and Natembeya.
Former Kanduyi MP Wafula Wamunyinyi echoed that view, declaring that Raila can no longer defeat the emerging opposition.
Raila has even praised the Kenya Kwanza government for implementing former Azimio policies—an apparent shift in his political posture.
Treasury CS John Mbadi recently declared that Luo Nyanza would support Ruto in 2027, citing their loyalty when treated well.
Other ODM heavyweights like Wycliffe Oparanya, Opiyo Wandayi and Oburu Oginga are also backing the broader government framework.
However, ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna dismissed claims that Raila's support guarantees Ruto a win in 2027.
“Even with ODM support, Ruto will still lose. We won’t form alliances with incompetence,” Sifuna on Citizen TV.
Kenya’s political titans are scrambling to win over Gen Z voters, expected to number eight million by 2027.
Kalonzo has called on Gen Z to vigilantly protect votes at polling centres to prevent fraud.
“This time, they won’t steal the vote. We need 100,000 incorruptible youths to guard the vote,” he said.
IEBC plans to register 5.6 million new voters, mostly Gen Z, between now and 2027.
If achieved, Kenya’s voter roll will rise to nearly 28 million, making youth the ultimate kingmakers.
Political analyst Charles Munyui said, “Whoever resonates with Gen Z concerns will have the upper hand. Ignoring youth is no longer an option.”
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