I am an optimist, so I must say there is no one other than a complete and unmitigated madman, reckless of consequences, who would want our country to experience even a fraction of what we went through during and after PEV.
That said, it would be naive to think or believe there aren't those who, on reading the writing on the wall, spend all night and all day dreaming and conniving different ways they can rig without suffering the consequences.
The only rigging that would have no consequences for the rigger is when the margins are close enough for them to cook some numbers and get away with it.
There is no rigging without severe consequences where the overwhelming majority of the voters vote for a candidate.
Given these two realities, it does not take a genius to see what the respective strategies for the various candidates would be for 2027.
President William Ruto
Like all others before him, Ruto will use the power of incumbency to try to sneak back to State House, notwithstanding the sentiment across the country that he has forfeited his privilege to serve a second term.
This will come in various forms, starting with what we are already witnessing: pronouncements and PR showcasing of “progress” intended to convey the message, “don’t believe your lying eyes, your suffering is only imaginative.” That may work in fooling some, but most see it for what it is – and dismiss it accordingly.
There will be all manner of these state functionalities, which will inevitably escalate when it’s obvious the PR stunts are not working.
This is when the government starts flexing its muscle, complete with threats of arrests, or actual arrests of targeted individuals, to convey the message: usicheze na serikali (don’t play with the government).
In days past, this was an arrow in the quiver that was fatally deployed; it not only silenced the targets, but also made everyone shut up and toe the line as desired by the one exercising the power.
Not anymore.
Kenyans are wiser and more informed than in years past, such that they can see and call out shenanigans like this to the benefit of those targeted.
The ultimate use and abuse of the power of incumbency for all presidents in Africa and elsewhere is rigging, which ranges from the mundane to outright thuggish, in-your-face methods, often without consequences, but many times with dire outcomes.
Ruto himself need not say anything about this, but his foot soldiers have openly and publicly stated there is no chance on earth he would be the first to serve only one term in East Africa.
In other words, they speak with confidence that voting won’t matter; they have other plans to have Ruto sworn in for a second term. Let’s just say they are mistaken, but in time, they too will realise.
Fred Matiang’i
Matiang’i has said and it is undisputed, that he had moved on to working at the World Bank following his tenure as a successful and key Cabinet secretary in the Uhuru administration.
It was only by people’s demand that he seek the presidency that he heeded the call in his recent visit to Kisii and has since become the most favoured candidate to take on Ruto.
His strategy is therefore simple: build on the goodwill of the people who are saying across the country he is the man; reach out to others who may have presidential ambitions and have them rally behind him; and once that is done, we have an outcome no different and likely better than we had in 2002.
Kalonzo Musyoka and others
Objectively, they should rally behind Matiang’i and this thing would be over – as described above. However, if pursuing a narrow-minded, selfish strategy devoid of any patriotism, then they will contest – not to win, but to force a run-off where they can cut deals with one of the top two candidates to help them win in the run-off.
Their dream would be quashed in Round 1, given the mood of the vast majority of voters that can only solidify and get deeper.
President William Ruto during his development tour in Migori./PCS
