A national survey by TIFA shows that 36 per cent of Kenyans do not believe that the cooperation between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga will necessarily guarantee an effective electoral commission in 2027.
According to the poll released on May 7, 2025, only 21 per cent of respondents said the working relationship would make it much more likely that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) would conduct itself above reproach.
“Opinion among Kenyans is quite divided as to the perceived impact of the ‘broad-based’ cooperation arrangement between President Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga on the capacity of the IEBC to oversee the next elections in a manner that meets approval across the political spectrum,” the report states.
While a plurality believes this cooperation makes a credible election much less likely, a significant proportion expects it to have a positive impact, with 30 per cent saying it makes such an outcome either “much more” or “somewhat more” likely.
Specifically, nine per cent of respondents said the cooperation would have a "somewhat" positive impact, while 18 per cent believe it will make no difference.
Another nine per cent said the cooperation is "somewhat unlikely" to have any positive effect, while eight per cent were unsure.
Respondents were asked whether they believe the cooperation between President Ruto and Raila Odinga makes it more or less likely that the new IEBC will conduct a fair election.
The poll was conducted between May 2 and May 6, 2025, involving 2,024 respondents.
It was carried out through telephone interviews in Kiswahili and English, using contacts collected from prior face-to-face, household-based interviews.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.17% and covered nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western.
The report also shows that half of Kenyans believe that the 2027 general elections will not be free and fair, 25 months to the polls.
