Not long ago, many astute political observers
were saying anyone who would tell you what
was going to happen in the country at any time
in the future was purely speculating with zero
basis of knowing what that could be in the next hour.
This was an apt observation given the fast-moving pieces
on the chess board at the time as clouds of uncertainty
loom above everyone.
That was then and even though in hindsight it looks
to have been a lifetime ago, it was only a few weeks ago
when ODM leader Raila Odinga lost his bid for AUC
chairman to a lesser mortal from Djibouti.
All eyes were on Raila to see what his next move would
be, for whatever that was, it was going to have a profound
impact on the political landscape one way or the other.
Writing about this at about the same time, I posited as
follows: another more plausible school of thought is
plausible and more likely what may have happened.
Although Raila was all in to go for AUC chairman
and initially had campaigned hard for it, with the
dimming prospect of Ruto’s political survival having
gotten dimmer, it is likely both men decided Raila would
be more effective for their mutual objectives if he stayed
put in Kenya and didn’t wander all-over Africa as AUC
chairman.
I said this school of thought made a lot of sense but
also begs questions beyond my subject at that time,
so I left it for others to answer.
I now ask and answer
the question: what is in it for President William Ruto
and for Raila in this latest handshake — or marriage of
convenience — and, conversely, who stands to lose by
this marital union?
I already hinted by saying firmly that it’s Raila and
Raila only who can save Ruto this time from being a
one-term president.
In other words, that’s what is in
it for Ruto: having the last laugh to State House for a
second term come 2027, courtesy of Raila.
In this school of thought, it will be Raila, saying ‘Ruto
tosha’, without actually saying it, but putting his weight
behind Ruto will do the trick.
How will Raila do that, besides lending Ruto what
goodwill he has left among his loyal followers? I gave that
away also: if Raila makes a deal with Ruto whereby Ruto
agrees to take on and sincerely try to rid the country of
the rampant corruption, and if Raila has Ruto making
it right for the sins committed against Gen Z while
addressing their issues, Raila will make Ruto’s reelection
a given.
For anyone following closely, you know these
two loaded points were featured in the MoU between
Ruto and Raila. Those are low-hanging fruits the duo can quickly pick
and see returns in turning things around to do the heavy
lifting that lies ahead, and that is what is in it for Raila.
The former Prime Minister wants to transform the
country, even though he has been denied the opportunity
to do so as president, starting from full implantation of
the National Dialogue Committee report and wealth
reallocation distribution for more equitable sharing of
national resources across the board, driven by a more
robust devolved system than what we have now.
With Ruto onboard, of necessity, the two leaders can
easily accomplish this almost in a manner to say to
Mt Kenya, “Mtado”?
In other words, the Ruto-Raila marriage will make
permanent what is already known to be a legal
separation between Ruto and Mt Kenya, with divorce
only a formality.
Mt Kenya will be in the losing column in this new
math, but there will also be also casualties and these
are the so-called ‘original’ Kenya Kwanza foot soldiers.
Raila will demand they be shown the door, and Ruto
can only gleefully oblige.
If Ruto’s association with Raila yields these dividends
in the short term, his re-election will be reassured.
If
the association fails to deliver on these fundamentals,
both men will be ejected from the political scene, and
mercilessly and rightly so.
The US-based writer is a political commentator
