Raila, who is exiting local politics to pursue a continental job at the African Union Commission, was widely expected to be succeeded by his two deputies— Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho.
The ODM boss, in fact, endorsed the two during his last public rally in Wajir county.
“Should I win, Joho and Oparanya are here and able to steer this party to success," Raila said in Wajir.
The move triggered a vicious succession battle in the Orange party, with the outfit's top brass secretly caucusing in camps as they scheme for control.
The move has put, on the horns of dilemma, Raila’s inner circles that are literally split between endorsing Oparanya and Joho as the next ODM supremo.
In the 2022 presidential race, Joho was Raila's point man at the Coast, while Oparanya was in charge of Western.
Joho met some ODM lawmakers last week aligned to his camps as they plot the party takeover.
In the camp included National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Narok Senator Ledama ole Kina.
A series of interviews with ODM MPs however points to a new political twist with a number of Raila allies now dissociating from both Oparanya and Joho axis.
In their argument, the politicians are opposed to narrowing the contest into a two-horse race and instead want an open field.
This development now portends fresh hurdle for the ex-county chiefs in their bid to inherit ODM and Raila’s constituencies which is largely Nyanza, Western, Nairobi and Coast.
National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, while distancing himself from the camps, told the Star that he too will give the seat a stab if Raila steps down.
“To put me in a camp is something that I totally denounce. First and foremost, there is no camp I know of in ODM,” Wandayi said.
“Even if there were to be factions in ODM, I cannot identify myself with any camp for the reason that that would beneath me. I am not a party to such camps and factions and I will not be now and in the future.”
“Since I am the leader of entire Azimio in the National Assembly, I cannot reduce myself to identify with a faction in my party. I am supposed to be the symbol of unity.”
In the thinking of the Raila’s allies, mostly from his Nyanza bedrock, the former Prime Minister should continue leading the party even when his AU bid succeeds.
Should it become untenable after winning the continental job, the position should be subject to an election.
Mathare MP Antony Oluoch insisted that Raila’s position should not be inherited by those who have been missing in action and only appear when it is convenient.
“In these political parties, we now have Johnny-come-lately and other people who had disappeared and now they want to be saviour of ODM,” Oluoch said.
Joho and Junet emerged from months of perceived political hibernation since Raila’s Azimio party lost the 2022 presidential elections to President William Ruto.
Rarieda MP Otiende Amollo said he is also ripe to lead the region. He said they will stand their ground and not be swallowed by the Oparanya/Joho axis.
The lawmaker insisted that there is no way Raila succession matrix can be discussed without the involvement of his Nyanza heartland.
“Baba the other day said Oparanya and Joho are there to lead the party, I want to tell you that when it comes to politics, we have also come of age and can lead our people,” he said last week during a burial in Siaya.
This is even as Wandayi disclosed harbouring ambitions of succeeding Raila should he resigns his party position to concentrate on AU.
“I want to debunk very strongly this notion, this false narrative of something akin to what we call duopoly in marketing that if by any chance a vacancy arises in the leadership of ODM, then it will be for two persons to compete, nothing could be further from the truth,” the Ugunja MP said.
“I may present my name for that position. As you all know, I have studied Baba for a very long time since I was 20 years old and now I am 50. This is a long time so nothing stops me from presenting my name for such a position if it were to fall vacant, an eventuality that I don’t foresee now and in the near future.’’
Suna West MP Peter Masara said they will align with the party leaders after the April elections.
“Let us not confuse our people, the party will hold elections in April. We will have party leaders. Raila remains the leader of Luo nation nationwide,” Masara said.
“I am confident come 2027, Raila will be our candidate, there is nobody else,” Siaya Woman Representative Christine Ombaka said.
Raila’s sister and Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga claimed that since Nyanza forms the bulk of ODMs support, it should not be denied an opportunity to participate in the election of its leader should the position fall vacant.
“ODM is a national party with diverse communities that we cannot limit its succession, if any, to two individuals. We have many loyal and consistent members with the capability and expertise to lead this party,’’ she said.
“We have the Orange Women democrats and we also feel limiting this contest to two male individuals is being insensitive to the female gender."
The MP added that any aspirants forming camps without women would be in for a rude shock.
Awendo MP Walter Owino argued that should Raila relinquish the position, then it should be open for any member to contest.
“We should never embrace handpicking of leaders in boardrooms because ODM is a national party….if Raila exits, bearing in mind that Nyanza forms the majority of the membership of this party, the region must also be accorded equal opportunity to produce a candidate in the contest," he said.
Speaking to the Star, Alego Usonga MP Sam Atandi also distanced himself from the Oparanya/Joho camps saying he too is capable of taking over from Raila.
The ODM party is planning to hold its countrywide elections next month amid fears that the factional wars could spill over to the polls.
ODM is one of the oldest parties in the country after Kanu, Ford Kenya and Narc.
Currently, it is the party with the second largest number of legislators elected in both the Senate and the National Assembly.
Apart from the drifting support of Raila allies, ex-Kakamega governor will also contend with the brewing rebellion from his Western region.
Mumias East MP Peter Salysa in what signals division in Mulembe nation backed Joho over Oparanya for the Raila seat.
“I am totally against the idea of handing over ODM to Wycliffe Oparanya. Age should be a serious factor. Are we having him there as a future presidential candidate? We respect his age, but let the party be led by the likes of Hassan Joho and Babu Owino. Let him play advisory roles,” the vocal lawmaker posted in his X account.
Joho on the other hand will have a lot of convincing to assure the ODM stalwarts that his absence when the party needed him most was without malice.
