“There’s a 62 per cent chance that El Niño will develop during the May–July period, and more than 80 per cent chance of El Niño by the fall (end of September),” said the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in a statement.
The agency said the forecast is “confident” because all the early signs of the climate pattern are now in place.
“From our current vantage point, there is enough evidence to support a confident forecast for El Niño,” the agency said.
Separately, the US Climate Prediction Centre also issued an alert.
The centre explained how strong it might be, although it is still early for a reliable prediction of the strength.
“An El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (four in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (one in 10 chance),” it said.
The forecast coincides with the weatherman's prediction of heavy storms in some parts of the country which are expected to continue in the next five days.
Meteorological department director David Gikungu said the storms will more likely be experienced in Rift Valley highlands, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado and Taita Taveta counties, and the Coast and northeastern Kenya.
The rest of the country will experience average rainfall amounts
“Rainfall is likely to continue over several parts of the country,” he said in a four-day forecast ending on Tuesday next week.
The forecast did not mention El Nino.
But the Dagoretti Corner-based Igad Climate Prediction and Applications Centre says the greatest impact of El Nino in the horn of Africa is mostly felt during the short rains, which begins in October.
“There is a strong association between canonical El Niño and a wet Greater Horn of Africa short rains,” it notes.
It causes dry weather in many other parts of the world.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a change in global weather conditions caused by the warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, has three states: El Niño (warming), La Niña (cooling) and Neutral.
El nino usually brings heavy rains, causing flooding, in Kenya.
The last such occurrence was in 2015-2016.
Kenya Meteorological Department has not issued any forecast regarding the coming El Nino but many agencies in developed countries have done so.
On Tuesday, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said all seven models it had surveyed—including those from weather agencies in the UK, Japan and the US—showed sea surface temperatures passing the El Niño threshold by August.
Although there is a risk of high post-harvest losses with such rains, it is also possible they may boost yields in Kenya.
A 2kg packet of maize flour is currently retailing at between Sh190 and Sh230.
The Ministry of Agriculture said this price may not reduce any time soon due to a looming maize shortage locally and in the international market.
Agriculture Principal Secretary Kello Harsama said South Africa is the only country with sufficient maize stock in the region.
But their grain selling price has shot up due to increased demand from many regional countries that are currently facing prolonged drought.
While speaking to the Star on Tuesday, the PS said maize is currently not available in traditional import supply countries like Tanzania, Malawi and Uganda and it is only available in South Africa.
Months after millers and traders were allowed to import 900,000 metric tonnes of duty free maize, importers are struggling to access cheap grain at the international market.
Importers are unable to find cheap maize at the international market to match the Sh4,200 that the government had set for any maize landing at the Port of Mombasa.
-Edited by SKanyara
