The current dry weather is driven by two events, which the Met Department says do not bode well for the country.
As a result, the Met says the short rains will delay in most places, coming at the end of this month.
They will also be inadequate in most places.
Head of Met Department Dr David Gikungu said the dry weather is caused by La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean dipole.
“This negative IOD does not bode well for rain in Kenya,” he said.
A negative Indian Ocean dipole refers to warmer-than-average waters over the Eastern Indian Ocean.
In a negative IOD – which has occurred in two consecutive years for the first time since reliable records began in 1960 – warm water concentrates in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to dry weather over the horn of Africa and floods in Australia.
Dr Gikungu also said the equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are lower than average across the Pacific Ocean, indicating the presence of La Niña.
“This phenomenon is also linked to below-average rainfall in Kenya,” he said.
Rainfall from October to December contributes up to 70 per cent of the annual total in the equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in eastern Kenya.
Last month, IGAD and humanitarian agencies raised the alarm that more than 50 million people in the region are suffering from acute food insecurity this year.
“In Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe,” said Guleid Artan, Director of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, based in Nairobi.
He said significantly less rainfall totals are expected until the end of the year.
The severity of the situation was echoed by IGAD Executive Secretary Workneh Gebeyehu, who made a solemn call to national governments, donors, humanitarian, and development actors to “adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather the worst of this crisis”.
On Tuesday, the Meteorological Department said there will be occasional rainfall in parts of Kenya this week.
In a weather forecast on Tuesday, Met said light rainfall will fall over some areas in the Coast at the end of this week.
The rains will also be witnessed in Northeastern Kenya, Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley.
However, it noted that some areas are likely to experience sunny and dry weather.
The forecast showed that average daytime (maximum) temperatures are likely to exceed 30 degrees over some parts of the Coast, Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya.
Average night-time (minimum) temperatures are likely to be high (more than 20oC) over most parts of the country.
Earlier, Meteorological Services director David Gikungu urged Kenyans to find county-specific forecasts that are available from county directors of meteorology.
“Most parts of the country are likely to be sunny and dry. However, rainfall is expected over some parts of the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin, the Central and South Rift Valley and the highlands east of the Rift Valley,” he said.
Edited by A.N
