ODM chief Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto face big dilemmas over explosive contests in more than half of the counties as their allies engage in bruising political wars.
There are fears that while Raila and Ruto could broker consensus among aspirants in their own parties, defiant affiliates pose the biggest danger.
There's chaos in the wind.
Azimio has nearly 30 affiliate parties while Ruto's Kenya Kwanza consists of about seven outfits.
There will be friendly fire within Azimio. What we must remember is that friendly fire can also kill... We must know the direction we are firing
On Wednesday, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka warned that "unfriendly fire" would hand Ruto a field day.
Kalonzo, whose party is supporting Raila, urged affiliate parties to build consensus to avoid losing seats to Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza.
“In some areas we have 10 aspirants under Azimio, all want the governor position in one county,” Kalonzo said. He sounded the alarm during the UPIA delegates convention at the Bomas of Kenya.
“There will be a friendly fire within Azimio. What we must remember is that friendly fire can also kill... We must know the direction we are firing.”
Ruto has engaged aspirants within his coalition to agree on single candidates, promising rewards to others.
He has secured deals in Kakamega, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi and Narok.
On Wednesday, the DP brokered consensus in Kakamega that saw Boni Khalwale (UDA) drop his bid in favour of Cleophas Malala (ANC).
Despite his efforts, many contests across the country would put the Kenya Kwanza leadership to the test.
In Nairobi, for instance, former MP Bishop Margret Wanjiru is locked in a bitter contest with Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja for governor.
The two almost exchanged blows at a joint rally early last month.
In the same county, two of Raila's allies are battling for the Senate seat. Nominated Senator Maina Kamanda and ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna are battling for the same job.
Kamanda is among President Uhuru Kenyatta's troops who fully embraced Raila in the early handshake days.
Jubilee, an Azimio affiliate, has three gubernatorial aspirants — Richard Ngatia, Agnes Kagure and sitting Governor Anne Kananu.
But ODM also is fielding Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi.
In Western, ODM's biggest threat is the Democratic Action Party of Kenya associated with Defence CS Eugene Wamwalwa.
We are supporting Raila at the top but we shall field candidates for all seats. If ODM is not agreeable to that, let them go on their own
In Kakamega, former Ketraco CEO Fernandes Barasa and Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito are seeking the ODM ticket.
However, DAP-K has Lugari MP Ayub Savula and Deputy Governor Phillip Kutima.
Kutima defected from ODM.
But Savula, who is the DAP-K deputy party leader, said the people should be allowed to decide.
“We are supporting Raila at the top but we shall field candidates for all seats. If ODM is not agreeable to that let them go on their own,” he told the Star.
In Vihiga, Governor Wilber Ottichilo is seeking to retain his seat on an ODM ticket. He faces challenges from former National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende of DAP-K and George Khaniri of Cyrus Jirongo’s UDP.
Like DAP-K, UDP is in Azimio and supports Raila’s presidential bid.
In Busia, Woman Representative Florence Mutua, former MP Paul Otuoma and Deputy Governor Moses Mulomi are eyeing the ODM ticket.
Busia Senator Amos Wako is also seeking the ODM ticket for governor.
Former Agricultural Finance Corporation MD Lucas Meso is eyeing the DAP-K ticket.
On Thursday, Otuoma said he is ready to do battle with his rival for the ODM ticket but he appeared to favour consensus.
“I have heard of consensus. I will be comfortable with any method that the National Elections Board will recommend,” he said.
Mutua dared her rivals to a popular vote by the party delegates to determine the ODM flagbearer.
“I am ready for primaries. We have party members, let them decide who will fly the flag for governor,” she said.
The governor’s seat is such a serious post that can't be solved through consensus, she added.
In Raila’s Homa Bay backyard, his allies are going for each other’s jugular to seize the ODM ticket for governor.
Woman Representative Gladys Wanga will be battling ODM chairman John Mbadi and former MP Oyugi Magwanga as well as former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero.
In neighbouring Kisii county, Raila has his work cut out for him, as it appears the ODM ticket has triggered walkouts.
Dagoretti North MP Simba Arati is headed to capture the ODM ticket for governor after his main rivals ditched the party
Senator Sam Ongeri decamped from ODM and joined DAP-K to run for governor while Jubilee is also fielding a candidate for county boss.
Former CAS Chris Obure will be battling former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara for the Jubilee governor’s ticket.
The situation is the same in Nyamira where the UPA party has fielded Governor Amos Nyaribo to challenge ODM’s Timothy Bosire.
ODM is facing a nominations dilemma at the Coast.
Two of Raila’s allies, Abdulsamad Nasir and Suleiman Shahbal, are seeking the party’s ticket for Mombasa's top seat.
In neighbouring Kilifi county, Governor Amason Kingi’s Pamoja African Alliance is threatening to spoil the party for ODM.
The PAA is fielding lawyer George Kithi.
Former Lands CAS Gideon Mung’aro and Kilifi Deputy Governor Gideon Saburi have declared interest in the ODM ticket for the governor’s seat.
In Mandera, former CS Adan Mohamed of Jubilee will battle former PC Hassan Noor (ODM) and Speaker Mohamed Khalif of UDM.
Governor Ali Roba is supporting Khalif as his successor.
In Isiolo, Governor Mohamed Kuti of Jubilee will face off with former Governor Godana Doyo of ODM.
Governor Ali Korane of Jubilee will face off with former Governor Nathif Jama of ODM in Garissa.
In Kajiado, Governor Joseph Ole Lenku defected to ODM and will face his predecessor David Nkedianye of Jubilee.
In the same county, Ruto has a headache as MPs Peris Tobiko and Katoo ole Metito seek the UDA ticket for governor.
Over to Kiambu, Senator Kimani Wamatangi will battle former Governor Ferdinand Waititu and Thika Town MP Patrick Wainaina for the UDA governor ticket.
However, affiliate parties are posing a dilemma.
Former Governor William Kabogo is seeking to make a comeback through his Tujibebe Wakenya party, while Moses Kuria of Chama Cha Kazi has also thrown his hat in the ring.
In Bomet former Governor Isaac Ruto of Chama Cha Mashinani which is supporting Ruto is seeking to replace Governor Hillary Barchok of UDA.
Former CAS John Mosonik is also seeking the UDA ticket, putting Ruto in a tight corner.
In Kericho, former Energy CS Charles Keter will fight for the UDA ticket against Deputy Governor Lily Ngok, Fred Kirui and Eric Mutai.
In Nandi, Governor Stephen Sang is facing Cleophas Lagat, Speaker Joshua Kiptoo and Allan Kosgey for the UDA ticket.
Where Kenya Kwanza believes there would be conflict by aspirants spending resources campaigning against each other, it facilitates discussions for consensus
Senator Samson Cherargei is also said to be eyeing the UDA ticket for governor.
In Meru, Ruto is facing a headache as Senator Mithika Linturi eyes the UDA ticket as is Woman Representative Kawira Mwangaza.
The DP is said to be seeking consensus for Kenya Kwanza candidates outside UDA strongholds and select counties outside his Rift Valley bastion.
Mathira MP Rigathi Gachagua, a close Ruto ally and UDA stalwart from Mt Kenya, said the DP’s Kenya Kwanza team encourages "self-driven consensus among aspirants".
"Where Kenya Kwanza believes there would be conflict by aspirants spending resources campaigning against each other, it facilitates discussions for consensus,” Gachagua said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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