I have said many times that ODM leader Raila Odinga cannot beat Deputy President William Ruto in the presidential contest. The only way for Azimio La Umoja to beat Ruto is if it has a different flagbearer.
We may also want to look at other scenarios. People may say Raila will lead for one term and hand over to another person but the problem is that you cannot trust the ODM leader.
There is a serious trust deficit and that is why he has never kept one group of people for more than one election. The ones he had in 1997 dumped him and of course, in 2002 it was a different group altogether.
In 2007, it was ODM, 2013 Cord, Nasa in 2017 and now Azimio. You do not have to be a political scientist to know these changes are because of trust issues.
Both Raila and his father Jaramogi Oginga got a lot of support from the rest of the country because they were able to take on the Mt Kenya forces. But the moment you eliminate that factor and you have a candidate other than one from the mountain, things become different.
If Kalonzo runs, Mt Kenya people will feel safer with him than with Raila. If Raila supports Kalonzo, the Wiper boss will win with a very big margin.
But if Raila pushes Kalonzo aside, it does not matter if the 'Deep State' is with him, he will lose. President Uhuru Kenyatta has zero clout in the mountain region. Banking on Uhuru is akin to banking on Kibaki in the 2013 election.
If I were Kalonzo, I would not join any coalition except as the flagbearer.
Even if Kalonzo were to abandon Oka and link up with Raila, as the running mate, for example, he would lose the bulk of his constituency, which will abandon him and support Ruto.
Give the devil his due. I do not support Ruto but he has support from quite a substantial part of the country.
Wiper deputy party leader spoke to the Star
“WATCH: The latest videos from the Star”
