Three central issues, top among them revival of the battered economy, are shaping President Uhuru Kenyatta’s succession race as rivals ramp up campaigns.
Deputy President William Ruto and ODM boss Raila Odinga have promised to revamp the economy, unite the country and tackle corruption.
This as Ruto and Raila are locked in a vicious battle over the fate of President Uhuru Kenyatta's ambitious Big Four agenda.
Certain issues that have previously galvanised the race to State House including land reforms, social justice and the push for expansion of the democratic space have taken a back seat.
In the current race so far, Ruto and Raila have spent large chunks of their campaign time to speak about their economic agenda - the central plank of their presidential contest.
The two, however, differ on the approach they would take to address the country’s economic woes, with Ruto proposing an end to the top-bottom model.
Buoyed by his unity pact with ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetang'ula under the Kenya Kwanza Coalition, Ruto’s team have crafted three slogans - Kazi ni Kazi, Uchumi Bora, Pesa Mfukoni. The three are driven by creating jobs and improving the economy.
The DP’s camp says their mission is to resuscitate the ailing economy and eliminate corruption.
"We need to get down to work soonest after elections while guided by our agenda to revive our broken economy and eject corruption that has been the greatest vice eating up this nation,” Musalia said on Sunday.
Ruto claims the bottom-up model will empower the lowest cadres of the social pyramid, create jobs and expand the tax base.
But his rivals have repeatedly claimed the model is nothing more than a catchy slogan to trick the desperate millions into believing their lives will change.
The structure of economic decision-making, his challengers contend, is driven by economic experts who will debate the merits of the economic policies presented for implementation.
But Ruto claims the top-down model that has dominated the country’s economic policies for decades, has created a handful of billionaires and perpetuated poverty among millions of Kenyans.
Ruto has said the bottom-up economic model is a blueprint targeting to promote investments of ordinary Kenyans and empowering them financially so the country can generate taxes to spur the economy.
“The youth of Kenya do not need handouts. These people have gone to school and only require empowerment to run their business. They have no time for handouts,” Ruto said on Sunday.
As part of his strategy to market his bottom-up economic model, Ruto has compared his presidency to America's Joe Biden, who adopted the economic model for his election.
"Look at President Joe Biden of America. He is using the bottom-up economy and so far, the American economy is doing way better," Ruto has said.
Ruto promised Sh50 billion for small businesses so they can be released from the exploitative grip of shylocks and high loan interest rates charged by financial institutions.
He would allocate Sh100 billion for housing, agro-processing – that appear to borrow heavily from the Big Four Agenda – to spur economic growth.
The DP has claimed he is best placed to continue with the Big Four plan, which will spill into the next administration, accusing Raila of hijacking Jubilee's programmes.
However, Raila, the man who served as the country’s Prime Minister during Mwai Kibaki’s administration between 2008-2013, has trashed the bottom-up model.
The ODM boss, who is seen as President Kenyatta’s preferred successor, has promised Sh100 billion to small businesses, tax cuts as well a war against graft.
Raila says public funds are stolen and therefore if he seals the loopholes, he will get money to fund his social protection and support programmes.
While Ruto’s camp is opposed to more borrowing saying the country’s debt levels are not sustainable, Raila promises to pay the loans and borrow to fund development programmes.
“We have our agenda as a people. When we join government, we will clear all the debts and borrow more. Even the United States of America has debts. Everyone has a debt somewhere. It is not abnormal to have debts,” Raila said in response to Musalia Mudavadi's attack on Kenyatta's appetite for loans.
Musalia has said the country will have to renegotiate and restructure all the loans if the Kenya Kwanza Coalition wins the presidency but not borrowing more.
Experts have argued that while borrowing would be inevitable, it must be tailored to ensure the money goes to sectors that spur economic growth.
The ODM boss, as part of his manifesto, has promised to set up industries in every subcounty to create jobs.
"We will have one subcounty, one industry, one product to spur the country's industrialisation," Raila said when he met 30 governors in Naivasha recently.
Raila has warned that what Ruto is doing through his bottom-up proposal is to incite the ‘poor against the rich’ saying the best approach to fight poverty would be by providing opportunities.
“In an economy, there will always be the rich and the poor, but you don't deprive the rich to give the poor," Raila said.
Raila believes that massive investments in rural infrastructure, cheap electricity and clean water will turn around the economy.
The ODM boss has promised to launch a multi-billion-shilling economic stimulus programme that targets villages similar to the one Kibaki unveiled in 2008 after the post-election violence.
The ex-PM also says he will give poor homesteads Sh6,000 monthly stipend and to cushion the single mothers, widows and widowers from adverse economic effects through a social protection programme.
With the economy taking centre stage on the leading presidential candidates’ blueprints, Kenyans might vote depending on who promises solid economic policies that will revive the economy.
The new approach that focuses on the economy could evoke memories of the 2002 presidential battle in which Kibaki's Narc politburo rode on the economic revival platform to vanquish Kanu.
Then Kibaki, who was the joint opposition candidate, campaigned on opening the democratic space, delivering a more efficient and open government free of graft and revival of the stagnant economy.
Ruto is promising a healthy nation through a Pay-As-You-Earn public health insurance that will see Kenyans get access to affordable medical care through the National Hospital Insurance Fund.
The DP has said his administration will deliver a universal healthcare programme within 90 days of assuming office in a bid to ease the burden of medical care on poor Kenyans.
“God willing, by the end of this year, all Kenyans will have an NHIF cover. For those who cannot afford the monthly contributions, I will make sure the government pays for all of you,” he said.
Apart from the economic interventions, Raila and Ruto are also focusing on national unity amid accusations and counter accusations.
The DP has accused President Uhuru of imposing Raila on the people of Kenya at the expense of other Kenyans who want to elect their next President freely.
In what is seen as a strategy to vanquish the Uhuru plan, the DP has said his new Kenya Kwanza Coalition is aimed at uniting all Kenyans.
“We have come together not to share positions but to unite the country and end impunity,” said Ruto in Kirinyaga on Saturday.
According to Ruto, the country’s unity faces threats if a few political elites would continue to dictate the country’s political direction.
The DP had argued that part of the Building Bridges Initiative’s agenda was to isolate some people and perpetuate the status quo.
The botched BBI was seen as a political machine that would have anchored President Uhuru’s succession plan by expanding the executive with more positions including introduction of prime minister and two deputies.
But Raila, who has launched his Azimio La Umoja, has accused Ruto of seeking to destabilise the country’s peace by creating a class war through his hustler nation campaigns ahead of the August 9, general election.
“They’re moving from place to place donating stolen money. We will ensure that they are arrested and jailed,” Raila said while in his tour of Mount Kenya.
The former PM has accused Ruto of being part of the corrupt leaders stealing public funds.
Ruto has argued that he has been branded a thief because he has gone against the establishment to fight for the poor and empower them.
Edited by Henry Makori
