Deputy President William Ruto is facing a delicate balancing act in the search for his running mate following a political deal with ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi.
On Monday, Ruto affirmed that the details of his political pact with Musalia would be made public in the next few days after ratification by party organs.
In picking his running mate, the DP faces a tough situation: how to appease the Mt Kenya vote bloc without jeopardising his new partnership with Musalia’s ANC camp.
There are jitters that if Musalia does not get the running mate slot, any other position may not satisfy his support base in Western Kenya.
Mudavadi could, however, make the perfect economic czar and saviour to rationalise the economy, make debt manageable and improve living standards. Super minister with Treasury docket and wide oversight. We don't know yet.
UDA and ANC have decided to work together ahead of elections, but there can only be one presidential candidate. I assure the people of Mt Kenya the Deputy President must come from our region
While previously it was almost a given that Ruto would pick his running mate from Mt Kenya region, Musalia’s entry into his fold has complicated the search for a running mate.
The Star has established there are palpable fears among the DP’s key allies from Mt Kenya that the DP could bypass the vote-rich region to name Musalia his running mate.
Lifting the lid on the anxiety in Ruto’s Mt Kenya fold, nominated Senator Isaac Mwaura on Monday insisted the DP’s running mate remains a “preserve of Mt Kenya.
“UDA and ANC have decided to work together ahead of the elections, but there can only be one presidential candidate. I want to assure the people of Mt Kenya the Deputy President must come from our region,” Mwara said.
Appearing on a local TV station, Mwaura said only a leader from Mt Kenya region would be suitable for running mate.
“This alliance is going to be a game-changer and the Mt Kenya region should know stakes are high in this new arrangement,” Mwaura said.
An opinion poll conducted by the Star before Musalia announced his plan to work with Ruto ranked Mathira Rigathi Gachagua as the strongest among those likely to be the DP’s running mate.
In the poll conducted between January 5 and 15, Gachagua was preferred for Ruto by 24.9 per cent, followed by Martha Karua, picked by 16.4 per cent of the respondents.
Musalia came third with 10.3 per cent.
Ruto on Sunday attended the ANC National Delegates Convention, formally confirming his political deal with Musalia and Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang'ula.
I do not think Musalia went to Ruto for any benefits. In fact, he sacrificed his political career. He either did it out of anger, or money changed hands, although I am not sure
Political analyst and university of Nairobi lecturer Herman Manyora warned that it would be "suicidal" for Ruto to pick his running mate from outside of Mt Kenya.
“To deny Mt Kenya that position would be suicidal. The only time Ruto can pick Musalia as a running mate is if Uhuru successfully invades Mt Kenya and the Kikuyus become openly hostile to Ruto that might be the time,” Manyora said.
The analyst said that by Musalia agreeing to work with Ruto, he “sacrificed his political career” to take revenge against his opponents and not necessarily to be the DP’s running mate.
“I do not think Musalia went to Ruto for any benefits. In fact, he sacrificed his political career. He either did it out of anger, or money changed hands, although I am not sure,” he said.
Kiminini MP Didmus Barasa, a Ruto ally, also said running mate position remains the preserve of Mt Kenya.
"I don’t think it is going to be possible for Deputy President Ruto to make ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi his running mate because that seat is reserved for Mt Kenya. We have already agreed on that.," he said.
There are suggestions that if Ruto names Musalia to be chief minister and hands him the Treasury docket, then Raila would also dangle the same position to Western Kenya.
Raila, who is the presumed Azimio La Umoja presidential candidate, would make Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya chief minister and hand Mt Kenya the running mate post.
With the running mate question becoming the elephant in Ruto’s room, his rivals from Mt Kenya said either way the DP’s goose is cooked.
Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni, Musalia’s 2013 running mate, poured cold water on the viability of a Ruto-Musalia ticket saying that would have no impact in Mt Kenya.
“If Musalia is the running mate of Ruto, that would have zero impact on Mt Kenya. If Musalia was to become a presidential candidate backed by Ruto, that would be something we would think through as Azimio,” Kioni said.
Kioni said that a Musalia presidency backed by Ruto would also expose the DP as a man who has sensed defeat and is ready to surrender.
“If he becomes a kingmaker, then it would be a loss for him (Ruto). Having been a principal campaigner in Mt Kenya, any change would make his endorsement as weak as his candidature. It would be a confirmation that it is over in Mt Kenya,” he added.
Candidates in the President Uhuru Kenyatta succession have until April 9 to unveil their running mates for presentation to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
The Wafula Chebukati-led polls agency has published notice for the August 9 general election, putting all the presidential candidates seeking election under its watch.
On Monday, Ruto said his deal with Musalia and Ford Kenya had been endorsed by the UDA parliamentary group meeting and the National Governing Council.
The DP defended his partnership with Musalia saying it was anchored on the "status of the country”— including addressing impunity, defending democracy and reducing the public debt.
“Those are the issues at the heart of our conversation with our partners in ANC and Ford Kenya. They are the priority discussions that we are having on how to get this country from where it is because something urgent and major must be done,” he said.
Speaking after chairing the UDA Parliamentary Group at his official Karen residence, Ruto promised that details of UDA’s engagement with the two parties will be unveiled soon to end any speculation.
"The rest of the details of our partnership will be in subsequent documents, because any relationship between parties will be filed with the Registrar of Political Parties at an appropriate moment. The details will be in public documents,” the Deputy President said.
Ford Kenya and ANC are expected to hold their PG meetings between Tuesday and Wednesday to ratify the deal seen as reshaping the presidential succession battle.
(Edited by V. Graham)
