He gave the Oka Naivasha retreat a wide berth on Friday. He did not make it to the Azimio MPs' lunch hosted by President Kenyatta and graced by Azimio leader Raila Odinga at State House on Thursday.
ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi is living up to his pronouncement last year of unpredictability. Musalia indicated he will surprise political players.
There is a very high chance Musalia gave the retreat a pass because he is preparing for the ANC January 23 National Delegates Conference.
All the other Oka principals have had theirs and been endorsed to run for president. Musalia has promised to deliver a eureka statement during the NDC.
He has attracted attention lately with both Raila and UDA leader William Ruto exploring coalition opportunities with ANC. It is not clear if Musalia will join either team, support an Oka candidate if he is not the flag bearer or run. He may want to give Kenya a choice alongside the others.
Oka principals received a report from a technical team on how to select their flag bearer. This report will now be subject to constituent parties review.
It seems that part of the Oka coalition decided to do simulations as well as permutations over a flag bearer without the benefit of directions from the political class.
It is not clear if the simulations are anchored in scientific metrics and sensitive to political realignments taking place in Kenya.
The simulations that haven’t received the principals' blessings put Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka at the top.
Kalonzo is set to host top Lower Eastern leadership at his Yataa farm on Saturday. These simulations will make for good conversations and give Kalonzo political capital as he seeks to determine the region’s trajectory.
All said and done, Oka is in a latent space and must quickly convert to latent energy for Kenyans to take them seriously. They must demonstrate their cumulative killer instinct and desire to offer Kenyans an alternative to Raila and Ruto.
Raila and Ruto have set the bar too high. They have deployed active voter engagement. Oka needs to firm up their strategy real quick and hit the ground.
Political risk analyst spoke to the Star
