Fourth Covid wave to hit Kenya in July — Kemri

Experts have warned Kenya is likely to experience a fourth Covid-19 wave from mid-July fuelled by the highly infectious Delta variant.

The highly transmissible variant first detected in India is now gaining dominance over the Alpha variant in the country and is said to have fuelled the third wave, especially in the Western and Nyanza regions.

Thirteen counties in the region are under partial lockdown.

The genomic sequencing was conducted from data from November 2020 to early June 2021 from samples sequenced at Kemri-Wellcome Trust, including 677 from Coast counties, 114 from Nairobi, 143 from Nyanza/Western and 104 from other counties.

The study projects an additional 4,300 hospitalisations and 580 deaths from the Delta variant.

The experts also project that the start of a fourth wave is imminent in the Coastal region and Nairobi county, and is already causing a surge in Nyanza and Western.

“The most likely location where health service demand will exceed capacity is in the Nyanza/Western region,” the finding reads.

“Genomic data from across the country indicates an increasing proportion of cases positive for the Delta variant, suggests the establishment of local transmission sometime in April or May.

"We are  beginning to see replacement of the Alpha variant that was predominant in the third wave,” the experts said.

This, they said, indicates a strong likelihood of a fourth wave and prompts consideration of its timing and impact.

“The timing of the next wave is imminent for the country as a whole or, in the case of the lakeside region is currently occurring. The health services in lakeside region counties are in jeopardy of being stretched beyond capacity,” it states.

Acting Health director general Patrick Amoth on Thursday said the ministry is still assessing the data collected to determine the possibility of the country experiencing a fourth wave.

Modelling teams had earlier predicted that the country might have a fourth wave in July after the trend showed the country experiences a wave after every three months.

“We are still watching the data and information as to whether we have a fourth wave is data-driven but we believe that certain measures that we took early in the month of June could preempt the development of a fourth wave coming In July,” Amoth said.

As at Thursday, 406,146 Kenyans had been inoculated with the second dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine while 1,010,954 people reached with one dose.

The total vaccines administered in the country to date stand at 1,417,100. The uptake of the second dose stands at 40.2 per cent with a majority of those vaccinated being men at 55 per cent.

The proportion of the adult population fully vaccinated stood at 1.56 per cent. Kenya needs to vaccinate at least 60 per cent of her population to attain herd immunity.

“I want to appeal to all Kenyans, whether you have received your two doses  or a single shot, to continue to wear masks properly and continue to maintain social distance. the proportion of our  people who have been fully vaccinated is still small so we are very far from achieving herd immunity,” Amoth said.

In terms of uptake per priority groups, 84,432 are healthcare workers, 54,074 are teachers, 30,714 are security officers, 127,008 are people aged above 58 years while 109,918 are members of the public.

This comes even as the country recorded 376 more Covid-19 cases from a sample size of 3,831, representing a positivity rate of 9.8 per cent.

“Sadly, six patients have succumbed to the disease, all of them being late deaths reported after conducting facility record audits on diverse dates in the months of April and June,” Health CS Mutahi Kagwe said in a statement.

The number of people who has succumbed to the disease stands at 3,640 while 126,594 have recovered from the disease.

(Edited by V. Graham)