- ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi's presidential bid is in trouble as troops are deserting him and he's facing a party mutiny. The party has nearly imploded.
- Mudavadi plagued by perceived inability to retain followers, his perceived indecision and fence-sitting and the Luhya tribal tag. Party seeking national rebranding.
Image: WILFRED NYANGARESI
ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi's push to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta is in trouble as his troops are crumbling and he faces a party mutiny.
In recent months, the party has nearly imploded, as a section of members questioned his term in office, some even demanding elections and saying he and others overstayed their terms. He denies the allegations.
The 2013 presidential candidate has also been abandoned by key allies who have resigned from the outfit or changed their political allegiance and openly defied the party’s directives and official positions.
The former Vice President has been deserted by most of his foot soldiers, including secretary general Barrack Muluka and a number of lawmakers, with only a few now having his back.
The latest to exit Mudavadi's camp, a day after Muluka in mid-August, was ODM leader Raila Odinga's former strategist Eliud Owalo. He unsuccessfully ran in the Kibra by-election on the ANC ticket.
ANC lawmakers Godfrey Osotsi and Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala’s are also gravitating towards Raila Odinga's ODM and have been defying Mudavadi on key issues.
The duo broke ranks with the party during the Kibra by-elections and openly campaigned for the ODM candidate. ANC lost to ODM's Imran Okoth.
This baggage of losing disillusioned supporters and Mudavadi's perceived indecision on critical issues could combine to frustrate his presidential ambitions in 2022.
Political commentator and lawyer Danstan Omari said the exodus from his camp by once-trusted allies was informed by their realisation the ANC boss doesn't stand a chance of winning.
Omari said if Mudavadi soldiers on to the ballot, he would be a peripheral candidate in what is shaping up as a two-horse race between Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga — if he vies.
“People are deserting Musalia and strategically moving to where the two horses are. It's either Baba's (as Raila is fondly known) camp or Ruto's camp. The fifth president of this country will come from one of those two formations," the city lawyer said.
Muluka and Owalo realised Mudavadi will not have the financial muscle to fund and finance their operations, Omari said.
But ANC deputy party leader and Lugari MP Ayub Savula downplayed the departures and called them inconsequential.
“We have lost nothing with the exit of secretary general Muluka and Owalo, they did what they did and we appreciate that as a party,” Savula said on the phone.
Some observers say the ANC boss must first right his troubled ship and consolidate his troops. Others say he must first stop sitting on the fence and shake off the tribal tag that has been dogging the ANC.
The self-proclaimed voice of the opposition has previously made unforeseen and abrupt last-minute changes of heart on a number of issues. They include political alignments in the recent push to change the Constitution through the Building Bridges Initiative.
Mudavadi is also accused of lining up his foot soldiers mainly from the Luhya community and lacking the broad national clout needed for someone who wants to be Kenya's CEO.
Omari further said his candidature will be weakened by emerging camps in the Western vote bloc that will weaken his grip on the community.
He cited the emergence of strong centres oscillating around Cotu boss Francis Atwoli, Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya, youthful Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja and his Kakamega counterpart Malala.
“We have the old foxes, Musalia and [Bungoma Senator Moses] Wetang'ula who have still been clinging to the old adage that the Luhyas belong to them," Omari said.
"Then we have Oparanya hanging onto he coattails of Raila Odinga. When you put all these [considerations] together, Musalia remains a tiny Maragoli person. Therefore, very many people are likely to run away.”
The analyst said Mudavadi has "not even done himself better. The new brooms he brought in - Harriet Chegai, Dan Ameyo, all Luhyas. He's not looking at national elections, he's still looking at the Luhya nation,” Omari said.
He added, “In my own sum total, he will be a bystander or a spectator to watch the key players in 2022 as they put their houses in order and as he continues to demolish the small reputation he had."
Lugari lawmaker Savula, however, declared Mudavadi's march to the presidency unstoppable, adding that the party has decided to do away with the old tribal identity. He said soon Mudavadi will be the only top official from the Luhya community as the party broadens its national appeal and opens offices.
“We have changed the party, even Savula [himself] will relinquish his position as deputy party leader for a smaller position to attract other communities. We have dished out the positions to other regions like Central, Nyanza, Eastern, Coast and even Northeastern.”
The lawmaker also denied claims that Western Kenya has slipped from Mudavadi's grasp, saying its grassroots operations in the region are fast bearing fruit.
He said the ANC boss is the most popular presidential candidate in the vote-rich Western bloc.
“In a survey, Musalia emerged the leading candidate in Western, followed by Ruto and Raila in that order,” Savula said. He did not elaborate on the survey.