Kenya’s main opposition coalition Nasa crosses into 2019 badly splintered after President Uhuru Kenyatta dealt it a potentially fatal blow that may lead to its natural death.
Political analysts argue that the net effect is that the government can now easily pile more taxes on Kenyans with President Kenyatta, who is likely to have an easy ride in his second term.
Kenyans are on their own, burdenedby skyrocketing commodity prices and a high cost of living. the new year 2019 is likely to bring about more hardships with Nasa deflated and defanged.
The appointment of ODM leader and Nasa chief Raila Odinga as AU Special Envoy for Infrastructure Development and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka as South Sudan peace envoy was a political masterstroke by the President.
Both out of the way, sort of.
However, for many Kenyans, the appointments drove the last nail into Nasa’s wobbling coffin.
Raila and Kalonzo had been the Jubilee administration’s fiercest critics during Uhuru’s first term but the post-handshake events between the rivals, the Building Bridges initiative, and the recent continental appointments have drastically altered the terrain.
While Raila’s appointment had already spelled trouble for the opposition, Kalonzo sealed it when he accepted Uhuru’s appointment as the new head of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) on peace in South Sudan.
The duo’s appointments have thrown the opposition movement into disarray and shifted the political landscape ahead of the 2022 General Election.
Nasa — which consists of Raila Odinga’s ODM party, Kalonzo’s Wiper, Moses Wetang’ula’s Ford Kenya and Amani National Congress of Musalia Mudavadi — formed the main opposition movement.
With Raila’s and Kalonzo’s continental activities requiring frequent travels, the two will be missing from the ‘early campaigns’ already being witnessed in the country.
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As the face of opposition politics for decades, Raila had been the heartbeat of the opposition, constantly and consistently keeping the ruling party on its toes through vigilance, criticism of its policies and programmes as well as frequent street action.
The former Prime Minister in President Mwai Kibaki’s 2008-2013 Grand Coalition government has been the cornerstone of the opposition and his vibrancy and acumen have provided its inspiration.
Raila had hammered home the Eurobond questions, the NYS scandal, land grabbing sagas and has exposed mega corruption in the Jubilee administration.
Thus, the one-time ‘People’s President’ has until recently always been considered the ‘People’s Watchdog’.
Raila was charged with treason and imprisoned without trial for six years; he was arrested several times for opposition despotism under the one-party rule.
Since he agreed to cohabit with the government, many Kenyans have raised concerns that the man known as the opposition ‘enigma’ no longer speaks out about the ills in government, including the imposition of the VAT levy on petroleum products and the maize and fertiliser scandals.
The huge vacuum caused by Raila and Kalonzo’s absence has been viewed as a dangerous loophole in the development of Kenya’s fledgling democracy.
“The opposition in Kenya is clinically dead,” governance expert Javas Bigambo said.
He says that while ANC’s Mudavadi now claims to be the face of the opposition, it would be of no use to have the face when you are ‘brain-dead’.
“While some vital organs in the body of the opposition could be alive and functioning, it is brain-dead,” he said.
Bigambo said Raila’s extending his hand of brotherhood to Uhuru hadsounded the death knell to all opposition politics.
Ndung’u Wainaina, executive director of the International Center for Policy and Conflict, said that without a vibrant opposition voice, civil society may find it difficult to operate in an environment in which government continues to trample on their rights.
“Civil society groups have been facing increasing infringement on their freedom of association, assembly, and expression. It is becoming dangerous to challenge power, sometimes doing so results in reprisals. This has limited the work of civil society groups,” he told the Star.
Raila and Kalonzo’s appointments have shaken the core of the opposition outfit, leaving it exposed and unable to maintain a thorough oversight of the Jubilee administration.
Mudavadi, a former vice president in President Daniel Moi’s Kanu government, has come out guns blazing, trying to position himself as the country’s main opposition leader.
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However, many argue that the void left by Raila is too vast to be filled by the man seeking a second stab at the presidency in 2022.
Positioning himself as the alternative voice for ‘deserted’ opposition supporters, Mudavadi has accused Raila and Kalonzo of abandoning their followers in their greatest hour of need by agreeing to cohabit with the establishment.
“I don’t believe the opposition must cease to exist. You cannot be in government and in opposition at the same time. It’s deceitful and unconvincing,” Musalia said after Raila’s and Kalonzo’s recent appointments.
He has vowed not to join the government and will continue to defend Kenyans.
“Being in opposition is the legitimate and constitutional assignment of Nasa. Our job is to help keep a balance of power, provide checks and balances, sustain democracy and maintain the constitutional requirement of Kenya as a multiparty state,” he said in an interview with a local newspaper.
“To abdicate that honourable responsibility is to betray the millions who voted for Nasa. It would be difficult to convince them that you can achieve what you told them that you stand for by joining to serve your erstwhile opponent.”
Mudavadi said despite the moves by Kalonzo and Raila, the remaining leaders in Nasa must continue to monitor and check the government.
However, Wetangula has been hobnobbing with Deputy president William Ruto casting doubt on his impact in holding the executive to account.
The numbers in Parliament also don’t work in favour of them.
The Orange Democratic Movement is Kenya’s second-largest party, with 76 MPs after the ruling Jubilee Party which has 171 lawmakers in the 349-member National Assembly.
The Wiper Party has 23 MPs, making it the second-largest opposition outfit after ODM, while Wetang’ula’s Ford Kenya has 13 MPs with Mudavadi’s ANC having 14 MPs.
A strong opposition Parliament had given Jubilee sleepless nights. The Nasa alliance had a combined strength of at least 127 MPs - well above the one-third threshold required to table impeachment motions against Cabinet Secretaries
Raila has vehemently dismissed suggestions that his handshake and appointment mean that he has joined the government
“This whole hullabaloo that the opposition is dead is a media creation,” Raila said after recently meeting Embu political leaders.
“I have not joined the government. There is nothing stopping me from criticising the government. We only have a working arrangement.”
The opposition chief explained that his appointment should be viewed within the larger context of Kenya’s efforts to broker nationwide healing and reconciliation, and not through a narrow political prism.
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“We all agreed we were coming from a very difficult situation which required mediation and that’s what we have done with the Building Bridges Initiative. There is nothing saying that I have joined the government,” the ex-PM said.
Political analysts and governance experts say the opposition has been dealt a fatal blow.
The March 9 handshake marvel agreed on an elaborate work-plan to address the historical issues that bedevil the nation since independence.
Uhuru and Raila had struck a deal to deal with ethnic antagonism and competition, lack of national ethos, inclusivity, devolution, safety, security and corruption.
They formed a 14-member task force that would work out the practical steps to be taken to implement the eight-point agenda and publicly, in a rare show of camaraderie, after a year of antagonism, pledged to “stand together” to pursue the country’s shared prosperity.
Kenyans will look up to the team in the New Year to see what practical solutions they will offer to solve the historical issues.