•This is the question many political observers are mulling over as the country heads to August polls.
•The county has in the past experienced high octane political drama with favourite candidates seeking governor position accusing the party of being rigged out.
Image: Dickens Wasonga
Is Siaya, Raila Odinga's home county, ready to dump ODM and elect a governor from United Democratic Movement ?
This is the question many political observers are mulling over as the country heads towards the August polls.
Siaya county is critical to Raila and his ODM party.
The county experienced high octane political drama, with candidates seeking the governor's post accusing the party of rigging them out.
The victims of such schemes have been vocal, condemning the Orange party for locking out residents and denying them the right to pick a candidate of their of their choice in the region's dominant party.
As the clock ticks towards another election, the lingering question is will Siaya go against Raila and ODM and elect a non ODM governor like Migori did with Okoth Obado of PDP in 2013 ?
Although the governor position is more critical, the idea of electing a candidate on a party rather than ODM is not remote in Siaya.
In a hotly contested by- election in Ugenya constituency, David Ochieng of Movement for Democracy and Growth went against the ODM tide and beat Chris Karan hands down.
Senator James Orengo, who is ODM's front runner in the Siaya gubernatorial race, was tasked to deliver the Ugenya seat to ODM.
He failed and left the party with egg on its face.
In Kisumu, voters in Kisumu West constituency have rejected ODM candidates since 2013 and elected Olago Aluoch who was in Ford Kenya.
Shakeel Shabbir also ditched ODM in the last elections and ran as an independent candidate.
He went on to beat the ODM candidate in that election.
He will be defending the seat for the fourth time in the coming elections.
Shabir said recently that he was done with ODM and will be running again as an independent candidate.
Olago, meanwhile, will be seeking re-election, this time on DAP- Kenya.
DAP- Kenya, which is associated with Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa, is one of the Azimio la Umoja affiliate parties.
The two legislators are optimistic that they will easily recapture their respective seats and ODM candidates are the least of their worries.
The wind of ODM defiance witnessed in parts of Nyanza will likely sweep away the party flagbearer in the Siaya gubernatorial race.
Lawyer George Mgoye Mbeya, who is seeking the ODM ticket for governor and J. T Okinda, who is the party's senatorial hopeful, warned that the party risks losing to UDM if they fail to conduct credible primaries.
The duo who addressed several joint rallies in Siaya on March 30 warned ODM against imposing leaders on the people by issuing direct tickets.
"Gumbo (Nicholas) is likely to beat the ODM candidate if the primaries are not free and fair. The party might be confronted by protest vote," Mbeya said.
ODM has already given direct tickets in some counties including Homa Bay, where Gladys Wanga was given the ticket.
Former Kasipul Kabondo MP Oyugi Magwanga is her running mate.
Janet Ongera was also handed the party's ticket in Kisii, a move that sparked off protests.
In Siaya, Orengo is believed to be the ODM' s preferred candidate for the governor position.
In fact, those in his camp believe it is already a done deal.
Orengo's team are said to be crafting post party nomination campaign strategies.
Former police spokesman Charles Owino, who had earlier shown interest in vying on the party's ticket, bolted out last week and joined UDM whose leader is Governor Ali Roba.
Owino must have realised his chances of getting the ticket in the Orange party through a fair contest was slim.
Owino will now deputise former Rarieda MP Gumbo in the siaya gubernatorial race.
The duo hit the ground running and are promising the ODM candidate a gruelling political duel on August 9.
In 2013, William Oduol gave Siaya Governor Cornel Rasanga a run for his money.
ODM leader, Raila, had to camp in Siaya to ensure the Oduol wave was put on check to save Rasanga from what looked like an imminent defeat.
A similar situation played out in 2017 when Gumbo, running as an independent candidate, became a hard nut for ODM to crack.
Gumbo teamed up with former Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo, both running as independent candidates to face ODM.
They were not happy with the way they were edged out of the party during the primaries and plotted revenge.
As Gumbo readies his arsenal to face whoever is picked to contest by ODM, he appears to have a head start in Rarieda, Bondo and Gem constituencies where he had a good showing in the last elections.
He has been keen to ring-fence this political base from ODM as he seeks to win Ugenya, Ugunja and Alego-Usonga.
Should Orengo win the ODM ticket, the senator will be banking on Raila's clout and the ODM wave as the regional dominant political vehicle.
(Edited by Francis Wadegu)