Food to be more scarce as Kenya battles worst drought in 40 years

According to the projected outlook through May 2023, the below average October to December short rains in pastoral areas are likely to result in limited forage regeneration, livestock remaining away from homesteads, and continued limited milk availability for households.

“Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will prevail across several pastoral areas, while humanitarian assistance is expected to prevent worse outcomes in Mandera, Wajir and Isiolo, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected,” the latest forecast released on Thursday said.

The forecast was released by Famine Early Warning Systems Network in collaboration with the National Drought Management Authority and the World Food Programme.

On Wednesday, EAC CS Rebecca Miano said at least 4.35 million Kenyans are in dire need of relief food and 960,000 children are severely malnourished.

She said the drought situation remains critical in 22 of the 23 ASAL counties.

"On the contrary, the period during which short rains are expected ended up posting poor rainfall right across the mist of the ASALs. This marked the fifth consecutive failed rain season," Miano said.

Nine counties have been mapped by the government as being in the alarm drought phase.

They include Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Isiolo and Kajiado.

The latest forecast said the situation in such counties will continue deteriorating driven by low livestock productivity, low household income and purchasing power.

“High levels of acute malnutrition are expected to continue across Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, and Samburu. High staple food prices and low livestock prices will continue to reduce household food access and income, causing households to seek additional income from non-livestock-related sources that are constrained by increased competition and inflation,” the forecast shows.

It is estimated that 2.5 million livestock have died due to the drought.

Scores of wildlife have also died.

The forecast says the January to February dry period is expected to erode limited improvements in rangeland resources, further reducing livestock productivity and household access to food and income.

Faced with below-average purchasing power, households will be forced to apply both consumption and livelihood coping strategies to access food and income.

The forecast says from late March onward, the likely below-average March to May long rains will only alleviate shortages in rangeland resources in the short term, keeping livestock in dry-season grazing areas.

“Slight improvements to livestock body conditions will only improve livestock prices marginally.”

The forecast said high staple food prices will keep goat-to-maize terms of trade below the five-year average and keep household food access and consumption below average through May.

It said the continued humanitarian assistance and ongoing distribution of government safety nets will mitigate severe reductions in household food and income sources for beneficiary households, most likely preventing worse outcomes in Mandera, Wajir and Isiolo counties, where Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is anticipated through May.

However, due to the greater severity of need in Turkana and Marsabit, poor households will depend on more severe, unsustainable coping strategies and be unable to minimise food gaps, indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) despite planned assistance.

The forecast said the anticipated below-average short rains harvest will temporarily lower household dependency on market purchases in February and March 2023, and produce transient price declines in marginal agricultural areas.

However, staple food prices are expected to remain above average through May 2023.

Household income from crop sales will remain below average, as well as agricultural wage labour for the March to May long rain season, due to reduced access to seeds and other inputs and lower liquidity among better-off households.

The forecast said reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that in the high and medium rainfall areas of western Kenya and the Rift Valley, harvesting of the long rain crops is ongoing.

In the warmer regions of western Kenya, the green maize harvest for the short rain crops is taking place.

“National maize production is estimated to be around three million tonnes, around 15 per cent below the five-year average, due to poor temporal distribution of rainfall during the long rains and pest damage,” the forecast indicated.

However, a more conclusive maize production estimate is expected by February 2023 following the bi-annual national assessment.

In Kenya, around 80 per cent of Kenya’s wheat production occurs during long rains, with the harvest typically occurring in October and November.

Wheat is primarily grown in Narok, Nakuru and Uasin Gishu, in southwestern and western Kenya.

National wheat production is expected to be around 300,000 tonnes, slightly lower than the five-year average of 305,000 tonnes.    

In the marginal agricultural areas, the 2022 October to December short rains have been unfavourable for crop production, due to delayed onsets, poor temporal distribution, and below-average cumulative rainfall.

According to NDMA field reports, land preparation and planting were delayed from October, the typical start of planting, to mid to late November.

Consequently, crops are currently at the early vegetative stages in most areas rather than at the flowering and pod-filling stages for legumes and late vegetative stages for cereals.

The forecast said the areas planted with food crops by poor households are below average as constrained incomes following consecutive below-average harvest seasons are limiting access to seeds and other inputs.

“Consequently, ongoing agricultural activities, such as weeding, are providing below-average incomes due to limited labour opportunities and an oversupply of labour.”

The forecast said staple food prices remain significantly above average due to high fuel and transportation costs, high inflation rates, and high global maize prices.

In Nairobi, Kisumu, Eldoret and Mombasa, the major urban consumer markets, wholesale maize prices are around 95 to 130 per cent above the five-year average, with mixed stability between October and November.

The stability is driven by the slightly improved availability of maize harvests from areas of western Kenya and the Rift Valley, along with increased demand in Kisumu due to depleted household stocks before the short harvest period.

The forecast said wholesale dry bean prices were around 30 to 45 per cent above the five-year averages across the monitored urban markets, except for the Kisumu market where bean prices were 90 per cent above average due to higher-priced imports from Uganda, depletion of the local stocks, and increased demand.

Maize flour, a staple in urban areas, remains at a five-year high of Sh200 per 2kg packet compared to a normal of between Sh100 and Sh115, which has contributed to the reduction in household purchasing power in urban areas.

The forecast said food consumption remains insufficient despite ongoing levels of assistance.

While food assistance is mitigating worse outcomes, particularly in Wajir, Isiolo, and Mandera, the severity of need is outpacing food assistance in the highly drought-affected areas of Turkana and Marsabit.

The forecast said poor households in worst-hit areas are engaging in consumption coping strategies such as sending household members to eat elsewhere, eating less preferred or less expensive foods, and reducing meal frequency and food portions.

The reduction in food consumption is exacerbating already chronically high levels of acute malnutrition in pastoral areas.

The forecast said the nutrition surveillance data from the NDMA indicates that the prevalence of acute malnutrition is increasing in Turkana, Isiolo and Wajir, evidenced by an above-average and increasing proportion of children recording a mid-upper arm circumference of less than 135mm in most pastoral areas.

The deterioration in nutrition outcomes is being driven by a severe reduction in the quantity and quality of food consumed, particularly low to no milk consumption.

Consistently high morbidity levels are also aggravating the prevalence of acute malnutrition, with Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Turkana West, and Turkana Central likely facing critical acute malnutrition.

The forecast warned that the prevalence of extremely critical acute malnutrition is likely to continue in Marsabit and in Turkana North and Turkana South sub-counties.