Nairobi remains a key swing vote for State House contenders

Nakuru county has in recent elections cemented its place as the melting pot of Kenya's national politics. It is the launchpad of political movements.

After announcing their deal to work together, Deputy President William Ruto and his new-found ally Musalia Mudavadi of ANC rallied their troops to Nakuru for their first-ever rally together ahead of the August 9, 2022 general election.

It cannot be forgotten that  Raila Odinga's Azimio La Umoja Movement was also launched in Nakuru in September last year. 

And while Nakuru has gained its significance as the bedrock of Kenya's politics, Nairobi, the capital city, remains a crucial swing-vote region where all rallies are concluded.

All political formations often hold their last rallies in the capital.

With just five months to the polls, top presidential candidates are angling for a chunk of the city's over two million votes.

Top presidential contenders are seeking allies to win the crucial vote block.

Ruto's alliance with Mudavadi is seen as a strategy to win over the Luhya vote basket in Nairobi.

ODM's Raila has traditionally won the presidential votes in the capital and he will be hoping to better that score when Kenyans cast their ballot on August 9.

A look at Nairobi's voting pattern in previous years shows it has often tilted in favour of the opposition.

In the 2017 presidential election results, Opposition chief Raila garnered 828,826 votes against the ruling Jubilee’s candidate President Uhuru Kenyatta who got 791,291 votes.

The total number of votes stood at 2,251,929 in 2017. That is expected to increase when the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission adds to its roll, newly registered voters.

In the 2013 election, Raila defeated Uhuru after winning 49 per cent of the city's votes against 46.75 for the President.

It is worth noting that both Uhuru and Raila are going into the 2022 election as a team with the President backing the candidature of the ODM leader as his successor.

That combination is likely to complicate Ruto's arithmetic in winning seats in the capital. 

Nairobi has 17 constituencies with 85 electoral wards.

The 2019 Population and Housing Census said the capital had 4,397,073 million residents.

In the 2017 general election, Uhuru's Jubilee party won nine of the 17 MP seats with Raila's ODM winning seven. Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper party won one MP's seat. Jubilee clinched the seat of senator while ODM won that of the Woman Representative.

In terms of wards, it was almost even with Jubilee winning 43 MCA seats against ODM's 41. One candidate was elected as an independent.

Breakdown

1. Mathare

Mathare constituency was carved out of Starehe for the 2013 general election when TNA party's George Wanjohi became its first MP. Wanjohi lost the seat in a petition and was later defeated by ODM's  Stephen Kariuki in a by-election in 2015.

Kariuki lost to ODM's Anthony Oluoch during the 2017 elections after he had ditched the Orange party for Jubilee. The constituency had 115,559 registered voters spread across its six wards of Kiamaiko, Ngei, Huruma, Mabatini, Hospital and Mlango Kubwa.

2. Starehe

Starehe is the constituency with the largest number of registered voters of 166,397 as of 2017.

Jubilee's Charles Njagua won the parliamentary seat after beating former area MP Maina Kamada in the party primaries. Kamanda would later be nominated to Parliament.

Starehe also has six wards including the biggest in terms of votes countrywide; Nairobi Central with 51,584 registered voters. Other wards are Nairobi South, Pangani, Ngara, Landi Mawe and Ziwani/Kariokor.

3. Makadara

Makadara is represented in Parliament by former Nairobi mayor George Aladwa of ODM. He unseated Jubilee's Benson Mutura in 2017 after losing to his rival in 2013. Makadara had 126,048 registered voters in 2017 spread across its four wards of Viwandani, Harambee, Makongeni and Maringo/Hamza.

4. Kamkunji 

Next to Makadara is Kamukunji which is led by Jubilee’s Yusuf Hassan Abdi. He first won the seat in a by-election in 2011 after beating then MP Simon Mbugua.

He successfully defended the seat in both 2013 and 2017 general election.

The constituency has 120,266 registered voters in its five wards of Eastleigh South, Eastleigh North, Airbase, California and Pumwani

5. Embakasi West

Former councillor George Theuri won the Embakasi West seat during the 2013 elections when the constituency was first established. He defended that seat in 2017 under the Jubilee party. Embakasi West has four wards; Kariobangi South, Mowlem, Umoja One and Umoja Two with 126,682 registered voters.

6. Embakasi East

ODM’s Paul Ongili, alias Babu Owino, is the area MP after winning 2017 elections with 39,700 votes

In 2013, ODM’s John Ogutu won the MP seat. Embakasi East has five wards consisting of Upper Savannah, Lower Savannah, Mihango, Embakasi and Utawala.

According to IEBC data, there were 140,740 voters in the area ion 2017.

7. Embakasi North

With five wards including  Kariobangi North, Dandora Area I, Dandora Area II, Dandora Area III, and Dandora Area IV, the constituency is represented in the National Assembly by Jubilee’s James Gakuya. He won the seat in the 2013 election and successfully defended it in 2017. Embakasi North constituency had 104,253 voters in 2017.

8. Embakasi South

Having 150,314 voters in the 2017 general elections, the constituency is represented by Wiper's Julius Musili Mawathe who beat ODM's Irshad Ali Sumra in 2017. Sumra was elected in 2013 on the ODM ticket. The area has five wards of Kware, Imara Daima, Kwa Njenga, Kwa Rueben and Pipeline.

9. Embakasi Central

Benjamin Mwangi of the Jubilee party is the current MP of the constituency which has five wards; Matopeni/Spring Valley, Komarock, Kayole North, Kayole Central and Kayole South,

Mwangi unseated TNA’s John Ndirangu who was elected in 2013. The constituency had 131,991 voters in 2017.

10. Ruaraka

It is made up of five wards which include; Baba Dogo, Utalii, Mathare North, Lucky Summer and Korogocho.

ODM’s Tom Joseph Kajwang’ is the MP. Area had 116,301 voters 2017.

11. Kasarani

Jubilee’s Mercy Gakuya is the MP, Kasarani had 146,701 voters in the 2017 general elections.

Ruai, Njiru, Kasarani, Mwiki and Clay City are the five wards within Kasarani.

In 2013, TNA’s John Njoroge was elected MP After getting 45,492 votes

12. Kibra

It has five wards; Laini Saba, Makina, Sarango’mbe, Lindi and Woodley. It is represented by ODM’s Imran Okoth as the area MP.

His late brother Ken Okoth had won the seat with 63,354 votes in 2017 and he was still the area MP in 2013 when he got 41,047 votes

In the 2017 general elections, Kibra had 117,278 registered voters.

13. Langata

Nixon Kiprotich Korir is the area MP having won the seat under Jubilee party in 2107 and got 41,086 votes.

ODM’s Joash Olum was the Mp in 2013 and won with 25,394 votes

The area has six wards; Karen, Nairobi West, Mugumoini, South C, Nyayo and Highrise.

In the last elections, the subcounty had 132,835 voters.

14. Roysambu

Roysambu constituency has five wards; Zimmerman, Githurai 44, Kahawa, Kahawa West and Roysambu.

Jubilee’s Isaac Waihenya is the area MP. The area had 148,349 voters in the last general election and in 2013 he still won under TNA with 72,266 votes

15. Dagoretti North

In the 2017 general election, Dagoretti North recorded 147,214 voters with ODM’s Paul Simba Arati winning the parliamentary seat.

In 2013 he was till the MP after winning with 43,004 votes.

It has five wards; Kilimani, Gatina, Kawangware, Kileleshwa and Kabiro.

16. Dagoretti South

Jubilee candidate John Kiarie emerged the winner of Dagoretti South MP's seat in 2017 with 54,853 votes while in 2013 TNA’s Dennis Waweru was the MP after winning with 58,548 votes.

In the last general election, Dagoretti South had 107,259 voters.

Waithaka, Riruta, Ngando, Mutuini and Uthiru are the five wards found within the sub-county.

17. Westlands

Westlands is represented in the National Assembly by ODM's Tim Wanyonyi who has declared interest in becoming the capital's next governor in August.

Wanyonyi has been the MP since 2013. The constituency has 152,718 registered voters spread across its five wards of Karura, Mountain View, Kitisuru, Kangemi and Parkland/Highridge.