The falling out between Deputy President William Ruto and Bomet Governor Isaac Rutto will erode the Kalenjins' unity in the Rift Valley and significantly weaken his bargaining position in the run-up to the 2017 elections.
While President Uhuru Kenyatta is keen to deliver a united Kikuyu vote for Jubilee, the rivalry between the two Rutos threatens to split Rift Valley and weaken claims that they have the interests of the Kalenjin community at heart.
Former President Daniel Moi stands to bolster his position by picking up a constituency that sees the two Rutos as too divisive and too proud to reach a compromise.
In the short term, the differences stand to dent Ruto's credibility as a suave political operative, and present him as a self-serving individual who has been enthralled by the trappings of power.
It might be possible to deduce that perhaps his political tactics were overrated, or explained that two difficult years in office have softened this self-made politician who rose from nothing to become a key player of our time.
Rutto will come off badly too, as a wealthy politician consumed by feelings of entitlement to offering political direction to the Kalenjin people.
A few days ago, at a fundraiser in Elgeyo Marakwet, Rutto said the people of Kenya know a Ruto will become President one day, only it has not been decided which one.
The rapprochement between Rutto and Baringo Senator Gideon Moi, whose political prospects are clearly not for 2017 but perhaps 2022, offers Kanu much-needed relevance in the region’s politics.
In seeking closer ties with Moi and Kanu, Rutto is raising his stakes and hardening the prospects of a possible deal with the DP to end their row.
As a student of former President Moi, Rutto is better prepared for a political contest with anyone in the South Rift, where he is almost succeeding in advancing the narrative that he is a bonafide Kipsigis leader being molested by a jealous elder brother, DP Ruto.
The thinking in Rift Valley is that even before the ICC case is out of the way, the storm, which the DP is obviously not keen to douse, is a dangerous miscalculation of a man who hopes to one day become President.
Nowhere does the Rutto-Ruto rivalry play out more prominently than in the South Rift, where no local politician will stand to benefit, as most are one-dimensional products of political accidents.
Bomet MPs, who are all allies of the DP, apart from the women's representative, present the most threadbare political challenge to the governor.
Barring prosecutable allegations of corruption, anyone seeking to beat Rutto in 2017 is deluding themselves if they do not have an elaborate campaign plan, complete with funding and a potent PR machinery—by the end of this year.
He will brand his main potential challengers Ruto’s project. They include Sotik MP Joyce Laboso, former MP Julius Kones, former Communications Commission of Kenya boss Sammy Kirui and accountant Ernest Cheruiyot.
Laboso is supposed to be a beneficiary of a Rutto tragedy, but she is starting off from an extremely weak position, beset by petty fights with local journalists. Male chauvinists will mock her devotion to the development of the community.
The governor's grassroots support is well cushioned from any bad press on misuse of funds.
In Kericho, Governor Paul Chepkwony’s political prospects are dependent on the local business class and the final result of the Ruto-Rutto duel.
Kericho Senator Charles Keter, an ally of the DP, would be the obvious beneficiary in the event of a Rutto defeat, but he is too obsessed with self-preservation.
In the North Rift, local leaders live in the DP's shadow, lacking the access or spine to genuinely advise Ruto on the pettiness of the region’s politics.
The writer is a consultant on political communication. [email protected].
