The leading candidates in the presidential election being long-time opposition politician Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto provides a very fiery contest.
It is almost similar to the 2007 race between then President Mwai Kibaki and Raila but at this stage, it looks too close to call. With this kind of contest, a lot can go wrong during the Election Day and after.
It is highly unlikely, however, there would be the kind of chaos we witnessed in 2007-08. However, there is potential for a lot of political disagreements and push and pull in courts as well as political heat in the country. The two men, who have deep political acumen and huge following, are providing an election race like no other.
Unless one of the coalition presidential tickets is able to pull up their numbers this month to a level that there will be significant clear difference in victory, a petition is highly likely.
Unless the electoral commission is on top of things, we will end up with a presidential election petition that could lead to another annulment of the results as happened in 2017. With a lot of accusations and fingers pointed at the processes and systems flaws at the IEBC, there is a highly likelihood both camps, Azimio and Kenya Kwanza, are preparing grounds for a petition as part of risk management.
The close call nature of the election makes disputes highly likely. Unless one of the coalition presidential tickets is able to pull up their numbers this month to a level that there will be significant clear difference in victory, a petition is highly likely.
The other challenging aspect of this election is that key political players are also factoring in the 2027 presidential election. It looks almost certain that in victory or defeat, Raila is unlikely to vie in 2027. If, on the other hand, Ruto wins, he will seek a second term in 2027. And even if he loses, he will be back at it because his age gives him that opportunity. After all Raila has been at it since 1997. The current President of Zambia Hakainde Hichilema went for it six times. So for Kenya Kwanza political formation, the key year could be 2032, if Ruto wins or in defeat they could be also preparing for 2027.
There are also very many interests at paly after the elections. The players behind the two political formations would want to position themselves for the next elections in terms of business interests, positions in government, political influence, jobs and so on. They are just very many of them at the moment.
If you look for other layers of seats, any of the political formation would be wise to get loads of them winning at all levels. Whether you win the presidency or not, you must get as many seats as possible at the county level and in Parliament. It means a lot for you for political survival into the future.
What does this means or portend for the rest of Kenyans?
We are in for a tough political and economic period at least for the rest of this year. Economically, there is a lot we are going through and politically, if we don’t make some decent choices all through the layers of political seats, we could be in for a tough next five years or more.
Politics has a strong stranglehold on the development and fortunes of this country, especially economically and in terms of freedoms and space for self development. This country has a chequered political history and has also potential to get worse.
Democracy does not guarantee the best of choices or outcomes. However, there is no system at this stage in the world that has proved better at all. While, people have a choice to make, they will have live by the choices they make. The majority can make life worse or better by their choices, which affect all. It is a price to pay for democracy.
But again societies most often get the leaders they deserve. Obviously, for any political formation that hopes to win the presidency and various other seats, July demands heavy spending, vigorous campaigns in various forms and tricks to win the hearts and mind of the voters.
Harrison Mwirigi Ikunda is a political, economic and social analyst and commentator
@hikunda
