As the Russian troops continue bombard sections of capital Kyiv, and America and its allies condemn Russian actions, China is faced with strategic dilemmas in Ukraine.
This is because China is desperate to play the role of middleman: Not taking any side between the warring belligerents in Ukraine or supporting the Russians and their allies the Ukrainian separatists, nor supporting Ukraine and its America allies.
This is the crux of its strategic dilemma.
On one hand, China resents American hegemony in Ukraine, the idea of the US working to move Ukraine into its sphere of influence.
However, at the same time, China is also concerned with the consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine. The reality that its takeover of Kyiv will lead to a more aggressive Russia and to Russian expansionism in Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia.
China is Russia’s neighbour and is well aware of the consequences of a successful military intervention in Ukraine to Sino-Russian relations. The capacity for a successful Russia in Ukraine rekindles border disputes in the Sino-Russian border region.
Given China’s need to maintain strategic ambiguity, it abstained from a Security Council vote on February 25 seeking action on Ukraine. In a move seen as a victory to Russia, any reference in the final resolution to Chapter 7 of the UN Charter dealing with sanctions and the authorization of force was removed.
However, Ukraine crisis is pushing China towards Russia because the US has targeted China as the biggest global threat to American global hegemony.
China also suspects America to be behind pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong styled like the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.
China saw the Orange Revolution uprising in Ukraine as a coup that toppled a legitimately elected government. Putin has similar concerns with pro-democracy activists and the civil society regime in Russia as really being fronts for American backhanded attempts to initiate regime change in Moscow.
In the context of Ukraine, China and Russia have converging interests. Beijing and Moscow recently declared a “no limits” partnership. A quid pro quo arrangement that would see Russia back China on Taiwan and China reciprocate by backing Russia on Ukraine. This Sino-Russian cooperation checks the influence of the US in Ukraine and Taiwan.
On the other hand, China cannot wholeheartedly support Russia because Russia and China are regional competitors. They also have had a history of border disputes that can resurface with a more aggressive Russia post-Ukraine.
Russia’s annexation of Ukraine threatens China's own territory. It epitomizes the notion of might over right. However, in the short term, China will employ the notion of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” in uniting Sino-Russian interests as they overlap on the question of Ukraine. Both China and Russia’s endeavor to deny the self-determination of Ukrainians since Ukraine will become a model for regime change and democratisation in the region. Threatening the authoritarian regimes in Moscow and Beijing.
China also remains conflicted on the question of self-determination. While Russia's invasion of the Donbas region undermines the right of the Ukrainian people to self-determination, Beijing faces its own separatist movements in Xinjiang.
In its western provinces, it faces the problem of rebellion from ethnic Muslim Uighurs fighting for more autonomy through the East Turkmenistan Independence Movement – ETIM.
The US has further infuriated China by removing the ETIM from the list of terror organisations. The US now considers the ETIM and the Uighurs more generally as a persecuted ethnic minority in China.
Sino-Russian interests converge on the need to contain separatist movements. However, China risks weakening its image as anti-colonialist in the developing world by its tacit support for Russia's effort to reestablish empire in Ukraine.
Another strategic dilemma for China because of Russia’s activity in Ukraine is China’s concern over Russia’s strategic designs in Asia. Russia's expansionism in Ukraine goes against the rules based international order.
A set of interntional norms all nations are supposed to abide by. Nations like China rely on international norms to check the expansionism of global military superpowers in the US and Russia. China also relies on international norms and rules-based regimes in advancing its claims to its territory where disputes occur with countries like India, Myanmar, Philippines, Vietnam, and its claim to Taiwan.
Russian and Chinese interests converge in seeing the US as a bully in the region, hence, the desire of both nations to be side-by-side in their anti-American positions on Ukraine.
They want to frame American influence in Ukraine as that of an extra-territorial actor meddling in Eastern Europe, a region far from North America. China is, therefore, empathetic with Russia's concerns in Ukraine.
As Russia sees the US-led North American Treaty Organization as an anti-Russia alliance, China sees the US led Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (AUNZUS) as a collective treaty targeting an emerging and rising China in Southeast Asia.
China’s strategic dilemma over Ukraine is bound to continue for some time to come, with Beijing looking to bandwagon with Russia when both country’s mutual interests are at stake.
However, this cooperation is also coated with a healthy dose of mutual suspicion of each other’s long-term designs in their shared neighborhood. China's dilemma in Ukraine will continue as it balances itself between two feuding global powers in the Ukrainian geopolitical space.
Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York
[email protected] @dmonda1, davidmonda.com
WATCH: The latest news from around the World
