This week has been very interesting. It has been the week for Kirinyaga in that to begin with, we were informed the Ngiricis and Interior PS Kibicho had made up after a long-running family feud.
Secondly, iron lady Martha Karua was named spokesperson for the Mt Kenya-based political parties and leaders forum keen to negotiate with key presidential aspirants for the region’s interests ahead of 2022.
Thirdly, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru decided to harken to the will of her people by joining the United Democratic Alliance at a roadside rally.
Quite a mouthful isn’t it? As they say, a week in politics is a very long time.
For starters, the Ngiricis, Kibicho patch up comes on the heels of a Kirinyaga leaders forum that was convened ostensibly to plan for Mashujaa Day celebrations.
Karua is a key contender and front runner for the Kirinyaga gubernatorial seat, while Waiguru finally heeded the advice we have her in this column. She is being courted by presidential aspirants. We questioned her dalliance with Raila, Kalonzo and even Mudavadi.
She finally turned down the running mate offer and in her own words, declared she would be defending her gubernatorial seat.
Kirinyaga is unique as the governorship has attracted the three great women as the strongest and most visible contenders so far. Is Karua going national as Waiguru goes local?
Waiguru, a one time luminary of the BBI bandwagon crafted by Raila Odinga, decided to signalher defection to UDA at a meeting with boda boda riders by a roadside.
This is quite symbolic in that these are the hustlers Deputy President William Ruto has been able to connect with through the bottom-up economic narrative and ideology.
For Waiguru to jump ship after her open hostility to the second in command is a clear testament to the dwindling fortunes of the reform narrative Raila has been advancing.
It is important to ask why this is so in a country with a long way to go to institutionalise good governance.
To begin with, Raila, Matiba, his late father Jaramogi, Rubia, Muge, Okullu and many others started clamoring for constitutional changes in the 80s. This culminated in the repeal of Constitution Section 2A, which made Kenya a one-party state.
With this, a plethora of political parties came into being. Currently, we have 68 political parties, with six comprising the bulk of Parliament. They areaJubilee, ODM, Wiper, ANC, Ford Kenya and Kanu. .
To argue that political pluralism is what the country needs fails the question why these many parties haven’t helped solve much of the citizenry's common problems.
Secondly, the clamour for reforms led to the 1997 IPPG (Inter-Parties Parliamentary Group) whose results ushered in the Narc government in 2002. This utopian train cobbled up by Kibaki, Raila and their allies collapsed less than three years to the elections.
In fact, the falling out led to the 2007-08 post-election violence. In 2010, a new first-class Constitution was promulgated to heal the fissures that emerged in previous elections, especially in 1992, 1997, and 2007.
The Constitution introduced devolution, the real revolution in the new 47 counties.
Curiously, this was the time William Ruto cut his teeth and entrenched himself as the kingpin of the Rift Valley, hence, parting ways with Raila in ODM.
In 2013, Raila was at it again, soon after the general elections calling for constitutional reforms via his Okoa Kenya initiative. This collapsed since the signatures could not be verified by the IEBC. In 2016, the target for reforms shifted to the IEBC itself with weekly demonstrations.
Nevertheless, elections were held and the presidential results were nullified by the Supreme Court.
A handshake between Raila and President Uhuru on March 9, 2018, led to the BBI initiative that took a record four years, sucking up all government attention as its priority.
Both the High Court and Court of Appeal nullified the BBI process, leaving drivers of the bandwagon with egg on their faces.
While in 2005, a referendum to birth a new constitutional order heralded the formation of ODM as a key national party, the flopping of the BBI initiative makes Raila not credible.
Thus, he lost the very momentum he had sought to create if the process had succeeded.
The 2005 referendum win of 45 per cent for yes and 55 per cent for no gave Raila a build-up to the 2007 polls.
His win against incumbent Kibaki gave him mileage and gravitas towards his claimed win in 2007, hence, the signing of the National Accord in 2008 under Kofi Annan. That close contest is what gave Raila the Prime Minister's position.
Today’s generation cannot connect with the idea of fighting Moi, who is now departed. When you tell them about Raila being detained, they think it was just a criminal issue since they are always being harassed and arrested by the police as they try to eke out a living during the pandemic.
What matters to them most is their survival in terms of jobs, economic and other opportunities.
Age is also a factor, especially because the younger population wants leaders who resonates with them. With Kenya’s median age being 20 years, the country is truly a young one.
Lastly, Raila’s brand has really been dented by his association with the perceived forces of oppression, aptly named 'the system' and 'the deep state', the very he claimed denied him the presidency thrice.
Once seen as the champion of the downtrodden, the oppressed and the voiceless, Raila became the candidate of the dynasties and the status quo. This clear shift has alienated him from his core support base that cuts across regions and religions.
Further, the fact that Kalonzo and Mudavadi don’t seem keen to support Raila's bid also injures his coalition-building acumen witnessed over the years.
This is over and above denying him a critical support base.
For Raila to reignite his magic, he needs to go back to the drawing board, otherwise, he bid has been billed by his competitors as the third term of the Jubilee administration.
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“In matters public affairs, it’s always about which end you start from, the money (Right) or the heart (Left). Eventually, humanity needs both....a third way....Keep serving.
(Edited by V. Graham)
