As supporters of the alternate political fronts continue to soak in celebrations and grief, the Star looks back at key economic hits and misses of the outgoing regime under President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto.
On the campaign trail, Ruto castigated his boss for abandoning their Big Four Agenda economic blueprint in the second phase of their 10- year rule.
In case his win is challenged in court by his arch-rival Raila Odinga of Azimio La Umoja Coalition, the president-elect has a bag of economic issues to carry.
Ruto will for instance inherit an economy battered by Covid-19 effects, rising inflation due to supply glitches caused by the Russia -the Ukraine crisis, high public debt, and drought among others.
This has seen both local and international economic experts cut growth prospects for the current year.
Last month, both the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and the National Treasury cut the country's growth to 5.7 per cent from six per cent projected in April.
JPMorgan analysts on other hand downgraded Kenya’s economic growth outlook for this year from IMF’s target of 5.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent on account of elections, closure of the Eurobond window and high current account deficits.
But how did the economy perform in the past 10 years of Uhuru-Ruto rule?
Economic commentator Jabril Buhasio describes it as good on paper but way worst in reality.
''Kenya's economic growth looks on great on paper but the country is choking on a tough tax regime leading to a high cost of living. Businesses have been hard pressed, leading to high unemployment,'' Buhasio said.
He however hails the regime for continuing with the previous regime's infrastructure revamp that has unlocked huge opportunities for businesses across the country.
''I give Uhuru-Ruto a 70 per cent score on infrastructure. From the Standard Gauge Railway to feeder roads in counties. This has played a huge role in easing the cost of doing business,'' he said.
Kenya is ranked 56 among 190 economies in the ease of doing business, according to the latest World Bank annual ratings. The ranking improved to 56 in 2019 from 61 in 2018.
His sentiments are echoed by Joel Agufana, an economics professor at the University of Ghana who rates Uhuru's government performance in two phases.
According to him, most development and economic upscale happened during the first term but that was watered down in the second phase by a number of factors including high corruption and Covid-19.
''Improved infrastructure and digitalization of most state services brew businesses. Even so, all went down the drain in the last five years courtesy of the high tax regime to repay rising public debt and high corruption,'' Agufana told the Star on phone.
According to him, the country's debt has grown by over four folds since Uhuru took power, the tax regime increased by at least two times and the rate of unemployment doubled.
''The ease of trade has, however, improved significantly courtesy of good infrastructure and digitization. Access to credit has also greatly improved,'' he said.
He adds that Uhuru-Ruto lost track of the Big 4 Agenda despite pumping huge resources into the dream.
This policy was to anchor activities during Uhuru's second term which mostly focused on delivering on the Big Four Agenda promise of affordable housing, universal health, manufacturing and food security.
Kenya has allocated at least Sh1 trillion to Big Four Agenda enablers from 2018 to the current financial year ended June 30.
UNIVERSAL HEALTH
Under this pillar, the Jubilee government intended to ensure every person in the country is listed in a health insurance scheme.
When the current regime came to power in 2013, health insurance coverage was at 14 per cent, which rose slightly to 16.5 percent at the beginning of the third MTP.
According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the number of people registered under the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) grew by 53.3 per cent to 23.45 million last year from 15.45 million in 2017.
While the growth is quite notable, it falls below the expected goal. The Jubilee government, however, receives above average rating on this, pushing the ball into the next government's court.
Recent data by the presidency shows the proportion of births reported to have occurred in health facilities increased to 97.7 per cent in 2020, attributed to the Free Maternity Programme in public health facilities, which is covered by Universal Health Care (UHC).
It pegs much of this success on the 'Linda Mama programme launched in 2016 to offer expectant mothers pre and post-natal care at local health facilities for free.
Before this, the World Health Organisation (WHO) had indicated that 6000 women were dying every year from preventable causes during pregnancy and childbirth.
The programme now averts over 2,000 deaths of women and 30,000 child deaths every year.
Since 2018, Uhuru's government has been allocating at least 40 per cent of the health budget to Universal health. In the year starting July 1, the exchequer has allocated Sh62.3 billion of the health budget to Universal coverage.
MANUFACTURING
Under this pillar, the government was to increase the sector's contribution to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP of 15 percent by end of this current financial year.
On the contrary, it has continued to register a decline, hitting 6.7 per cent last year according to the latest Kenya Economic Survey from 8.4 per cent in 2018.
Under the plan, the government committed to focusing on apparel, leather, agro-processing, oil and gas and mining. Other sub-sectors include fishing, iron and ICT.
Even so, the sector's contribution to GDP is on the rise, having recovered from the slow growth of 0.4 percent in 2020 due to Covis-19 effects.
This is attributed to a number of incentives put in place to spur the manufacturing agenda.
Top on the list is affordable energy costs after the government reduced power prices across all consumer categories by 15 per cent starting January this year.
In 2018, the government introduced the Time of Use Tariff whereby industrial users enjoy a 50 per cent cut on electricity consumed in the off-peak hours between 10 pm and 6 am.
Even so, the last mile connectivity programme was a game changer. It has seen the number of people connected to the grid grow to 8.5 million as of last year from 4.9 million in 2016, fueling small businesses.
AFFORDABLE HOUSING
In 2017, Uhuru launched the Affordable Housing programme as one of the key pillars of the Big 4 Agenda.
The government had planned to deliver 500,000 by 2022 and with the president’s five-year term almost coming to a close, it is already far out of reach since only about 1,000 units have been delivered through the Pangani and Park Road Ngara projects.
Even before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the government had no sustainable plan on how to fund the initiative despite increasing its budgetary allocation by 75 per cent since 2018.
Even so, there are tens of ongoing projects both by the government and the private sector under this initiative.
The government has in the past five years been allocating at least Sh20 billion to the pillar and a host of policy directives including a fair tax regime on construction materials.
FOOD SECURITY
Although agriculture accounts for at least 25 per cent of the country's GDP, Uhuru's regime has done little if not worsened the situation in its bid to ensure food security.
While the government's plan on this specific agenda envisioned mechanized agriculture, value addition and surplus food production, the country is a net importer of the simplest of food.
When Uhuru's regime took power in 2013, two-kilo of maize flour retailed for Sh90 and the country was producing 86 per cent of its demand.
Today, a few weeks before he hands the power to his deputy, the country is facing a maize flour shortage, with a 2-kilo bag of maize flour retailing at an average of Sh240, the recent subsidy plan notwithstanding.
