The 2022 presidential battle will be shaped by the historic political war between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy William Ruto.
The President, who has declared that he will not dictate his successor, is blatantly plotting against his deputy.
The DP has audaciously stepped way out of line and is facing off with his boss, going head on some 340 days to next year's general election.
After months of proxy wars, the President and his deputy this week left no doubt the gloves are off.
In fact, the country's succession race could be a battle between Uhuru and his Number Two.
Shots have been fired and the shootout has escalated. Will they go for the jugular?
Uhuru is breathing fire that his own deputy is leading a rebellion against his legacy agenda, while Ruto is defiantly taking on the state in a daredevil push.
Buoyed by constitutional protection, Ruto is leaving nothing to chance. Using the language of war, he refused to "surrender".
Uhuru has made clear that Ruto, once thought to be his heir-apparent, will not get his backing; in fact, the President is far from the detached statesman, he is actively working against the DP.
The President is working on a grand plan to unite opposition leaders for a behemoth political machine to vanquish Ruto.
Politicians and analysts argue that the bid to stop Ruto's grand march to the House on the Hill will be at the centre of 2022 campaigns.
On Thursday, former South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya, while calling for respectful campaigns, said the Uhuru-Ruto bitterness will shape the 2022 succession.
"You are likely to see a lot of crying foul from the DP's that they have been shortchanged despite twice supporting Uhuru. The President's allies will be campaigning on the platform of Ruto having frustrated him and his development agenda," Nyamweya said.
The Kenya National Congress party leader said the war will escalate.
"They will be going for each other's jugular, definitely," Nyamweya said.
It is the first time a second in command is brazenly confronting his boss, going toe to toe.
While former presidents have had their fair share of run-ins with their deputies, then their appointees, the battles were bottled up and never exploded onto the public arena for scrutiny.
For instance, when Jomo Kenyatta fundamentally fell out with Vice President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga barely 16 months after assuming office, Odinga quit government. after the country’s independence, the latter quit government.
Once a devoted supporter of Kenyatta, Jaramogi said the Independence government’s policies were at variance with the original script.
While Ruto’s disaffection in government mirrors the first post-Independence cabinet, it is full of parallels that critics say has left the DP with egg on his face.
Throughout former President Daniel Moi's administration, there was a high turnover of vice presidents. Moi had the constitutional luxury of hiring and firing so none dared challenge him to a duel.
When George Saitoti was dissatisfied with Moi's choice of successor in May 1998, the quiet maths professor did not publicly take on his boss.
That may be why Moi reappointed him in April 1999 after a long period without a vice president.
For Moody Awori, the man who became Mwaki Kibaki's vice president for five years from 2002 to 2007, no major political differences were recorded. The same with Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka who worked under Kibaki from 2008 to 2013.
Nyeri town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, a critic of Ruto, told the Star the DP was unnecessarily raising political temperatures with his "bravado".
He said he expected Ruto to sustain the "chest-thumping and political posturing" into the polls but he also said Ruto would consider resigning at a strategic time to gain mileage.
“The most honourable thing for Ruto is to resign on principle," he said."Ruto’s attacks on the President are personal and unfortunate."
But unlike Jaramogi who resigned on principle through a 103-word statement in April 1966, Ruto has firmly stated that he will not quit despite pressure from the President to leave if he's so unhappy.
While some, especially Ruto’s allies, say the DP enjoys constitutional safety as he is not an appointee of the President, others believe ideological differences should lead to a parting of the ways.
Uhuru is working with ODM boss Raila Odinga and the One Kenya Alliance principals of Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kal(Ford Kenya) to block Ruto.
Former State House Comptroller Franklin Bett warned the country could be teetering on a dangerous cliff if the President and his deputy continue attacking each other publicly.
Their animas will be shared by the public.
“We are approaching elections and the most important assignment for any politician is to tone down the negative rhetoric in the interests of peace and stability,” Bett said.
The Former Bureti MP said that while the two men have differences, they should talk and dialogue.
“Personally, I think this has set the tone for the 2022 campaigns and they are going to revolve around broken promises,” Bett said.
On Monday, the President rebuked his deputy for opposing his policies and dared him to resign to resign instead of rocking his administration from within. He spoke in a rare interview with editors at State House.
"It would be an honourable thing that if you are not happy with it (government), step aside and then take your agenda to the people. That is what happens in a democracy, you cannot ride on what we have done and talk a different language on the side," he said.
The President was incensed that his deputy has been celebrating the Court of Appeal ruling that quashed the Building Bridges Initiative as he leaves office. It was a key part of his agenda and legacy.
Uhuru said he doesn't have a problem with Ruto's constant politicking but it's wrong for him to attack the same government he is serving.
Ruto fired back, accusing the President of having orchestrated the BBI process to return the country into an imperial presidency. He called BBI the most "dangerous constitutional amendment."
“I’m a man on a mission. I have no space to retreat nor the luxury to surrender,” Ruto said.
The fiery exchange between the President and his deputy, politicians argue, portends more ugly tension before the polls.
“With Ruto’s daredevil approach, we expect nasty exchanges going forward as each side digs in,” former Githunguri MP Njoroge Baiya warned.
“It is obvious the President has said he wants this successor to continue with his legacy but his plans suggest that man will not be Ruto.:
Analyst Felix Odhiambo said the country's next few months would be highlighted by "ferocious verbal attacks".
"It is going to be nasty," he said, "as the war will spill into the open."
(Edited by V. Graham)
