Kenya is a deeply divided society. Six years ago economist David Ndii, an erstwhile opposition strategist and champion of secession, wrote an opinion article in the Daily Nation titled ‘Kenya is a cruel marriage, it’s time we talk divorce’.
He was right. Kenya is a cruel marriage. But because I am not a separatist, and because I am proud of our diversity, methinks we need not divorce. Indeed, many African states have had to undergo a very painful process after a failure of leadership to deal with underlying conflicts that grew over time into full-blown war. A good example is the Biafran war in Nigeria. However, I believe Kenyans can solve their problems and continue to co-exist peacefully.
Political scientist Hanna Lerner, in an article titled ‘Constitution Making in Deeply Divided Societies’, argues that in recent years’ constitutions have become an important tool for mitigating conflicts and promoting democracy in deeply divided societies.
By and large, a constitution is a political document wholly obsessed with how a people want their government to be structured, power and functions to be distributed — among and between the three arms of government — and elections to be held.
That Ndii, and other Kenyans, have continued pontificating about the political instability post the 2010 Constitution, all point to the fact that the document majored on the minors and minored on the majors.
Even though many would use the explanation by Prof Okoth Ogendo that the problem we face is that of constitution without constitutionalism, methinks by looking at that as the gospel truth we tend to overlook the fact that it is possible to have constitutions that do not respect cultures and societal realities thus making themselves unimplementable. But I digress.
Two weeks ago Cotu secretary general Francis Atwoli proposed we postpone the 2022 election if we are unable to effect constitutional changes that would see us go into the polls without worrying about post-election violence.
In the same week Interior CS Fred Matiang’i reported that intelligence reports point to possible post-election violence in 2022.
Now, with all this in mind, it seems holding an election in 2022 is tantamount to playing with fire and expecting not to get burnt. Which begs the questions: What is the purpose of an election? Why would you go ahead to conduct an election knowing all too well that the most assured outcome is violence? Is the IEBC ready to conduct an election?
Today the country is more polarised than ever. Unlike in 2007 when there were only two camps, every region has its own ‘kingpin’ with some such as Western, Central and Ukambani spoilt for choice over who should be ‘kingpin’. If this, dear readers, is not a recipe for civil war then I don’t know what is.
This is the hard reality. Before we go to the election we must, at all cost, ensure the country has peace. Peace can only be achieved through the balancing of conflicting interests.
Currently, Wanjiku wants to participate in an election come 2022 for the sake of it, while the proponents of the BBI want to push forth a constitutional amendment process that would bring about more peace. This is a conflict of two rights.
Be that as it may, and considering the buck stops with the President, the Executive working together with the Legislature must ensure that Kenya doesn’t go to the 2022 election only for it to end with violence and the much-dreaded civil war.
Methinks the country gained more by avoiding an election at Independence. Additionally, we gained more when Kibaki and Raila worked together in 2008. We need not go to an election to seek peace thereafter. Let’s go to the polls knowing that peace is to a great extent guaranteed.
And to those looking forward to the 2022 election like Amalinze the Cat would look forward to the next wrestling match in ‘Things Fall Apart', I would like to remind them that there is always an Okonkwo waiting to throw them down.
Political scientist. [email protected]
