Is the passing of Raila Odinga going to lead to the ODM
collapse, its rebirth or renaissance? I have keenly followed the fierce debate
on the future of the ODM by its various leaders since the death of the former
Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
I listened to all the speeches in the celebration of ODM 20
years anniversary and followed keenly the subsequent speeches by various
leaders. Interestingly, there is consensus in most of the issues except one; at
the core of the disagreement is whether ODM should join opposition side or
remain within the broad-based team for the sake of the 2027 election. Which
choice will hand them solid grasp of power?
In contrast to the
past, this decision is critical to its survival, because without Raila, the
party might not be invited to a post-election coalition. A commonly neglected
reality is that, it is only Raila’s charisma and massive support that forced
previous governments to accommodate him post-election.
There are many views by ODM leaders and supporters on how to
move the party from the margins to the centre of government. I point out that
there is no major areas of disagreement and some of the fierce debate is
justified and expected as part of the transition. This means ODM can easily
find consensus on the one or two areas of disagreement. Unity of the party is
possible.
In my analysis the
various opinions are core concern shared by both sides. Both sides want a
united ODM and oppose divisions. I probe the idea of working with the
opposition and question how in the shadow of opposition unity they will be
willing to negotiate with Rigathi Gachagua who has emerged as the natural team
leader. I see more validity for ODM to work with broad-based approach to
achieve their goals for the reasons below.
In making a choice on which side to join, ODM should not
make assumptions that their supporters are static. The decision should be made
with the reality of a shifting terrain. The projects and 10 points agenda
between President William Ruto and the late Raila has already lead to some
emancipation, dignity, visibility and inclusivity to change the unfair
structures that create and sustains inequality in the perceived opposition
zones. One year of work between Ruto and Raila has moved a majority of
supporters towards the broad-based plan. Therefore their decision is not made
in a vacuum but within context that there is already alignment of the
grassroots with the government and any dislocation to rejoin opposition might
leave a large majority behind.
The party should avoid historical mistakes that relegated
them to the opposition. This is critical for the party to avoid another misstep
that confined them in the opposition. Opposition politics should not be
embraced for the sake of it, because while being in opposition might not make
much difference to the personal wellbeing of Siaya Governor James Orengo, for
he enjoys the benefits of the job, for the communities it makes a huge
difference. Canaan is a good description of where the ODM members hearts lie
but empty rhetoric without concrete strategy will not get them to Canaan.
The talk of never compromising is convenient for a few
leaders who resist change. However there is plenty of evidence to show that
working with opposition parties to get to power has been a long beaten path
that has yielded much misery. I question the source of confidence in the
opposition to capture power in 2027. I question those who support the
opposition idea to demonstrate how the idea is different from the past attempts
and thinking within the party, which the traditional voting patterns and trends
have defined presidential elections. Interestingly, both sides agree they do
not wish to stay in the opposition after 2027 and agree with Raila’s vision
that ODM cannot remain an opposition party forever. It is therefore important
to discuss the most viable path for ODM to be part of the 2027 government.
Working with opposition relates closely to the party
identity. For some, the idea of working along side the government makes them
uncomfortable and anxious having spent decades as a formidable opposition. Both
sides easily agree that the opposition politics has been a poor guardian of
their region development interests. The core bases have suffered economical,
political and other longstanding harm.
The plan to join government through the opposition may fail
and leave ODM in the doldrums. There are other minor areas of disagreement
within the party, but my concern is on the core disagreements. The party leadership
has a great chance to find consensus on the one area of disagreement. With
regard to which side to work with, both agree the main goal of a political
party is to get power. The matter therefore to be determined is how viable is
each path based on the patterns of the past elections.
The minority pushing for the opposition, are yet to
demonstrate how it offers a clear path. This is because there are a few leaders
who are opposed to working with the government, it has also brought friction on
who should be the party leader. In my view, leadership transition is not a
major area of conflict because it appears both sides agree the replacement of
Raila should be within the Odinga family. Even the issue of having an ODM
presidential candidate is really an invitation to negotiate and a bid to
receive counter offers but not a deal breaker.
Much disagreement are on the very short term goal on the
next election nothing much on long term issues beyond the 2027. Of course it
will be naive to assume 2027 is not a real dress rehearsal to the possible
politics of the next kingpin. The great news is that the conversation of the
next king pin is not restricted to ODM and it is individual efforts.
I suggest the only way to make meaning out of the many
suggestions is for the teams to seat and define a common goal. That common
interest must first be defined clearly. For example what is the common interest
of the Nyanza people? The common interest should be paramount and at the centre
of the debate.
Working with the government does not appear to go contrary
to the ODM principles and values. Whichever choice they make it might lead to
the ODM renaissance, rebirth or collapse.
Like any other great institution ODM must continue to
innovate, adapt and avoid the temptations of short term thinking. I suggest
they need to first map their common interest and then consider the most viable
path. ODM might have differing views and ambitions, but they must put the
interest and welfare of the members first, if ODM is to survive as a party that
can hand economic justice as clearly articulated in the 10 points agenda
between Ruto and Raila.
Dr Duncan Ojwang'
A lawyer with extensive theoretical and
practical experience in human rights law.
