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Raila's one hell of a gamble in bid for AU top job

Political pundits say whichever way vote goes, there are serious ramifications for Raila and his supporters.

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by The Star

Siasa06 March 2024 - 17:21
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In Summary


  • Some also feel that Raila's exit would be to his advantage owing to his advanced age of 79 and also perfect escape from the pettiness of local politics.
    The other factor playing out in the race is what other African nations think about Kenya and how they take Ruto.
Raila Odinga at the Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg in Germany on February, 21, 2024.

Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is staking big in his bid to replace Moussa Faki as chairperson of the African Union Commission. In declaring his bid for the position, questions abound as to whether he is venturing into a risky political gamble.

Political pundits say whichever way the vote goes, there are serious ramifications for the Opposition leader and his erstwhile supporters.

The conversation continues that even in the event he wins, his political bases would remain exposed to infiltration and other vagaries of politics.

Should he lose, Raila will be viewed as having complicated his comeback, especially with the confusion about his new-found camaraderie with President William Ruto.

His mega coalition Azimio has all signs of tearing apart, with the key personalities appearing to be charting their path.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has rolled out an elaborate takeover plan, bringing with him former Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa and Kanu chairperson Gideon Moi to his fold.

Raila’s Mt Kenya allies, apart from those who defected to Kenya Kwanza right after the elections, have also started showing signs of drifting apart.

Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni told the Star that they will retreat to Limuru on April 20 to discuss the way forward.

“It [the meeting] has nothing to do with Azimio. We are retreating to discuss our place as Mt Kenya. The meeting has everything to do with our community,” the former Ndaragwa MP said.

The activities have been accelerated by Raila's recent photo op with President Ruto and Uganda’s Yoweri Museveni at the latter’s cattle farm in Kisozi.

The former premier's bid has attracted support from rare quarters, including Kenya Kwanza, furthering the debate he could be out of the 2027 race. His AU quest has also stirred talks of a possible “handshake” with Ruto, but others hold he could be playing into the President’s hands.

For his troops, it is a catch-22 situation: either a blessing for their party leader or a poisoned chalice that would decimate the ODM leader’s political firepower completely.

Away from the local political scenes, concerns are rife that the race would be no walk in the park. 

Interviews with various political players and analysts point to critical matters that could frustrate his bid for the Addis Ababa office.

“It is a double-edged sword for Raila, but also for President William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka,” lawyer and political commentator Danstan Omari said. 

He holds that the Azimio leader's chances of succeeding are minimal.

With the possible emergence of competition from within East Africa, Raila is said to hanging on a loose thread.

“Ruto doesn’t agree with most heads of state from the region – Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Burundi. They might not be comfortable voting for Kenya,” Omari said.

A few months, Kenya stirred diplomatic tension with Rwanda following comments by Roads Minister Kipchumba Murkomen that rubbed Kigali the wrong way.

An outstanding oil pipeline deal has equally caused strife between Kenya and its neighbours Uganda and Tanzania, pointing to efforts to isolate Nairobi.

Sudan recalled its ambassador to Kenya a month ago in protest against the warm reception given to paramilitary commander Mohamed Dagalo by President Ruto.

This was shortly after the Democratic Republic of Congo recalled their envoy on the accusation Kenya was hosting and dealing with their opposition leaders in Nairobi.

“They might sponsor someone to teach him [Ruto] a lesson,” Omari said, saying Tanzania or Burundi could front bids.

Prof Macharia Munene, USIU International Relations don, says since Raila is not likely to be the only candidate, "his chances are something else".

“If [former Tanzania President Jakaya] Kikwete was to vie, Raila’s chances would be slim. Kikwete has more serious credentials in every way,” he said, adding that Obasanjo’s credentials are also a factor.

He argued that how Raila appeals to other African leaders would also count, and so would the academic qualifications sought by the AU.

The commission says the role requires a master's degree in law, international relations, economics, diplomacy, political science, social science or any related field.

“If they follow the qualifications, Raila’s chances are not very high. Depending on which part of Africa, some see him as a violent man while some see him as a very good man,” Prof Munene said. 

It is understood that ODM leader's troops have opted to keep off the debate in public so as not to antagonise his chances.

“We have chosen not to give public comment on this matter for strategic reasons. We are vigilant about any mischief as we take this path,” a source in Raila’s inner circle told the Star. 

For the lot, the best outcome would be for the former PM to win, saying it would propel his clout. 

Some also feel that Raila's exit would be to his advantage owing to his advanced age of 79 and also perfect escape from the pettiness of local politics.

The other factor playing out in the race is what other African nations think about Kenya and how they take Ruto.

It is observed that the regional dynamics will come into play, with success depending on the direction taken by leaders of East, West, North, and Southern Africa.

“If they have issues with Ruto, they won’t support,” Prof Munene said, adding that the campaign’s success would depend on how the President lobbies.

Maseno University don Dr Charles Nyambuga agrees that Raila’s sojourn to the AU could be a big gamble, “as the race is not settled”.

“It is not a sure thing just like any other election would be. It is not automatic. For him to emerge as the obvious EAC candidate would be a task,” he said.

For the communications don, the premier's candidature has to undo the concerns around the country’s relationship with its neighbours.

“Raila is sponsored by Kenya whose relationship with its neighbours has not been at its best. The neighbours might not support what Ruto wants,” Dr Nyambuga said.

Pundits further point out that the interests by the US, China, Japan, France and Britain would also affect the outcome.

Omari said the very established presidents of Africa – in Arab North, West, and Central Africa, also matter.

“These guys feel they are not backed by the West when Ruto is. They will feel that a winner backed by the West may interfere with the status quo,” the lawyer added.

Another factor cited involves Raila’s position on matters such as life presidency, as well as his opposition politics.

The former PM believes in term limits and has for years led campaigns against the establishment.

Also featuring in the race is a fear that former President Uhuru Kenyatta's row with Ruto could adversely eat into Raila’s bid.

Despite the endorsements analysts say Raila, who until 2022 was the AU Infrastructure envoy, must campaign hard.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who is leading the shuttle diplomacy to sell his candidature, earlier dismissed claims of tensions.


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