Much like Uhuru Kenyatta, whose father was the first president of Kenya, Raila Odinga found himself with a political platform handed to him on a silver platter. His father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, served as the inaugural Kenyan vice president under Jomo Kenyatta. Linked with his late father to a 1982 coup attempt to overthrow Moi's government, Raila was detained for six years without trial by the ruthless Moi regime. Initially denying any knowledge or involvement, a 2006 biography contradicted this, prompting calls by politicians from Kibaki’s Party of National Unity for fresh prosecution, which were hindered only by the statute of limitations which meant that information contained therein did not amount to a confession.
Raila's entry into multi-party politics was incubated by the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy which he joined after returning from exile in 1992, and which later split into FORD Kenya and FORD Asili. Running on the former's ticket, Raila secured victory as the Langata Constituency MP in the 1992 elections. Following his father's passing in 1994, he viciously but unsuccessfully challenged Kijana Wamalwa, the new Chairman of FORD Kenya, alleging fraudulent party polls, leading him to quit and join the National Development Party, taking FORD Kenya's Nyanza legislators with him.
Despite a troubled history with Moi, Raila experienced his first handshake with him in 2002 when NDP merged with the ruling Kenya African Union. Raila became the Secretary General of KANU. However, the alliance disintegrated a few months later in October 2002 when it became clear that Moi preferred Uhuru as his successor. Notably, during this period, Raila acquired the Molasses plant in Kisumu, formerly known as the Kenya Food and Chemical Corporation, a detail conveniently omitted in his biography, but which remained his soft underbelly which his detractors always aimed at even as Odinga sought to present himself as ‘clean’. “I am as white as wool”, he variously would claim.
In 2007, Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement contested the presidential elections, sparking widespread protests and resulting in the tragic loss of over 1000 lives. International negotiations, spearheaded by Kofi Annan, played a pivotal role in shaping the resolution. Consequently, a constitutional amendment was implemented, creating the office of Prime Minister along with two deputies to accommodate Raila and his ODM team. The new constitution promulgated in 2010 would negate those changes. The subsequent period was characterised by palpable tensions as Raila consistently voiced dissatisfaction with the treatment by President Kibaki and his team.
During this tumultuous era, Raila's discontent found expression in various forms. Notably, he lamented the absence of basic amenities, such as a proper toilet and carpet, at events he attended. Moreover, he emphasised the glaring absence of leaders from the provincial administration at his gatherings. In 2023, Francis Muthaura acknowledged that Raila was indeed not accorded the treatment he deserved during the grand coalition era. This admission underscored the challenging dynamics within the coalition government, revealing the persistent frictions among key political figures.
Muthaura further revealed supremacy battles and protocol challenges that unfolded between Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka during that period. Subsequently, there were claims of mismanagement of Kazi Kwa Vijana funds, allegedly involving some senior officers in the Prime Minister’s office. These revelations added a layer of complexity to the intricacies of governance during that time, exposing internal conflicts and potential financial improprieties within the corridors of power.
In the second era of President Uhuru Kenyatta, Raila, who contested and disputed the 2017 presidential election, secured an amorphous agreement with Uhuru, dubbed the 'handshake.' Together, they initiated the Building Bridges Initiative, which proved unsuccessful and incurred substantial taxpayer expense. Although Raila's relationship with Uhuru secured an endorsement for the 2022 elections, he ultimately lost. Notably, during this period, Raila was appointed the African Union's High Representative for Infrastructure Development.
Following the 2022 elections, Raila reverted to his familiar role of contesting electoral outcomes, triggering public demonstrations and initiating bipartisan talks. This strategic manoeuvre, reminiscent of past transitions, underscores his adeptness at seamlessly transitioning from a vocal critic to an active participant in deliberations when expedient. This facet should not be overlooked by keen political analysts and enthusiasts, as it provides a revealing insight into Raila's political character and commitment. Do interests of the people take center stage in Raila’s political outlook or they are not only peripheral but also the least of his concerns?
As Raila positions himself as the people's watchman, actively opposing the proposed sale of state parastatals and challenging the government on corruption allegations, questions linger about the authenticity of his advocacy. Dissatisfaction within Azimio honchos Martha Karua and Eugene Wamalwa rejects the report. In 2008, Raila fell out with his then-confidant William Ruto, denying him a deputy prime minister position. The ongoing talks on the cost of living raise questions about their true intentions. Can Azimio indeed lower the cost of living, or is it merely a political strategy? Only time will tell if Kenya Kwanza can achieve this.
Raila has repackaged himself as the people's watchman, defending citizens from what he deems an insensitive and fraudulent government. His vocal opposition to the proposed sale of state parastatals and clashes with Ruto over corruption claims highlight his renewed activism. As his focus shifts to 2027, Raila aims to stay politically relevant, even as figures like Kalonzo Musyoka push for the Azimio presidential ticket internally. Raila is synonymous with Azimio, likely retaining an unassailable grip on the presidential ticket. However, as Raila politically thrives, the fundamental question arises: have the interests of Wananchi ever been at the core of his manoeuvres?
Finding a consistent people's watchman in Raila Odinga remains a challenge. With almost 40 years of both opposing and being part of the government, Raila is likely to remain a force in Kenyan politics, credited with constitutional reforms and simultaneously implicated in the difficulties the country faced during the 2007/2008 disputed elections. The complexities of his political legacy continue to pose intricate questions for citizens seeking a steadfast advocate.
Irrespective of the developments in 2027, Raila and Kalonzo will place paramount importance on safeguarding their respective support bases. Their central goal will be to secure a significant representation of legislators in parliament and to establish a presence with governors in numerous counties nationwide. This strategic approach underscores their commitment to sustaining political influence and a bare minimum presence both at the national and regional levels while upholding political relevance and business.
The writer is a political commentator