But security experts have expressed their concerns that there is no evident sign of an exit strategy for Israel, that is assuming they plan to exit. Nobody really knows at what point Israel military campaign will consider that their goals have been realised and that it begin to hand over to a political authority.
Tel Aviv wants to stop rockets fire from Gaza. And they want to crush Hamas “terrorists” and possibly reoccupy Gaza as there short-term tactics.
Israel mobilised 360,000 reservists for the operation in Gaza Strip that is 360 square kilometres. Therefore, there is doubt that short-term goals like eradicating tunnels and maybe targeting Hamas leaders and killing them are achievable by force of that magnitude. But beyond that, what happens?
Hamas are not present only in the Gaza Strip, but it exists throughout Palestinian territories. It has supporters in the Middle East and beyond. So crushing Hamas is going to be very difficult for Israel, both militarily and politically.
The regional players equally can escalate the war. Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon, if they get involved, Israel will have to fight on different fronts. While many countries have labelled Hamas as terrorist organisation, others have not. These include Switzerland, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey, Syria, Norway, India and Philippines.
The US resolution at the UN Security Council in 2018 to label Hamas “terrorists” was supported only by the US, with European countries abstaining. In respect of Hamas’ onslaught and barbaric massacres, there can no longer be any excuse for not designating Hamas as a terrorist entity.
The last comparable mega ground offensive by IDF was in 2006, in Lebanon, when they crossed the border and went into south Lebanon to try and arrest Hezbollah forces who had captured Israeli soldiers. Israel had not come up against fighters like Hezbollah in the West Bank in previous decades.
The question is how ready is Hamas for them with its tunnels, with its booby traps, with its trained fighters? And how many casualties would they inflict on Israel? How many casualties would Israel inflict on innocent Palestinians? What of the tolerance level on warring and proxy players? All of this is unknown. How will that happen exactly?
Israel and Palestinians are currently embroiled in their fifth major war since Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip in 2007. Israel has not come close to destroying “Hamas’s war machine” in the previous four occasions, and it will not be any more successful now.
Once bombs stop exploding, Israeli government will be forced to enter a reconciliation with its nearly 1.9 million Arab citizens (20 per cent of the population). Similarly, it must make concessions, like stopping evictions in East Jerusalem and settlement growth in the West Bank, to bolster the moderate Palestinian Authority at the expense of the more radical Hamas.
Hamas rationalises its onslaughts on Israel by citing the struggle against Zionist “colonialism.” Israel rationalises its brutal assaults on Gaza Strip by quoting the struggle against Islamist “terrorists.” The endgame is that Israel will not defeat the Palestinians ‘militarily.’ It needs a political solution, not temporary military dominance.
The author is the national organising secretary, Ford-Kenya
