Having flanked Raila in 2013 and 2017 as running mate, while being downgraded to Prime Cabinet Secretary designate in 2022, Kalonzo will most likely not cower to any pressure to drop his drive for the big seat, which William Ruto occupies currently.
Back in 2006/2007, Kalonzo had big chances of becoming the compromise candidate for the opposition in the form of the Orange Democratic Movement- Kenya party.
Following disagreement with Raila -who was keen to run in 2007- Kalonzo managed to wrest control of the party through current Makueni Senator Daniel Maanzo. Raila had to buy the ODM Party back because it had been registered by someone else who probably wished to take advantage of its popularity following the referendum it had won.
By sticking with ODM-K, Kalonzo managed to rally troops in Ukambani and to emerge third in the 2007 election with more than 800,000 votes.
The disassociation from Raila propelled Kalonzo to the highest height he has scaled as a politician because he became Mwai Kibaki’s vice president, apparently spiting Raila who had blackmailed him in the famous heckling incident at Khadija grounds in Mombasa.
Some blamed the Wiper leader for this, believing that had he stayed put and not joined Kibaki, Raila would probably have found a way of ascending to the presidency as the bitterly disputed 2007 election would have been repeated.
However, objectively, Kalonzo cannot be blamed for abandoning Raila then. He had a right to take the direction he took because he had fallen out with Raila already.
The latter actually had had harsh words for Kalonzo where he had asked a section of the media, who had inquired whether Kalonzo was going to be the opposition’s choice for presidential candidate in 2007, whether it was a beauty contest. The words were rough and unpalatable for Kalonzo because the agenda was to portray him as one without substance and depth as far as top leadership was concerned.
Raila sorely paid for his sins of spiting Kalonzo because, with him, he would have triumphed by a major margin ahead of Kibaki in 2007 and averted the bloodbath that befell parts of the country.
At the same time, it was possible that Kalonzo would have won the election against Kibaki. A myriad of other parameters existed especially the interests of other opposition honchos who probably wanted a Raila presidency because it had benefit them in their own career plans.
This year, Maanzo, Machakos Governor Wavinya Ndeti and others have insisted that Kalonzo should be presidential candidate for 2027 and that Raila should prop him as early as now.
They are probably looking at Ruto’s triumph in 2022 and figuring that Kalonzo needs to go all out to meet the people and campaign for the biggest seat so as to enjoy the advantage of sufficient time. The latest update this week is that Kalonzo has declared that he will be on the ballot with or without Raila’s backing, quite a daring statement.
The biggest question begs now, whether Kalonzo can galvanise the support of critical communities such as the Luo, Luhya, Mijikenda and Kisii, among others, if he is to detach from Raila. There is no question that Kalonzo wields powerful political control over the Kamba considering the lofty number of elected politicians his party has in the region.
Is Kalonzo willing to pay the price that it would take to become a significant challenger against Ruto? Perhaps we need to consider what it really takes to pull what the indomitable Ruto did which even defied the wishes of the incumbency who did all there was to do to thwart him.
As we attempt our exploration, we must come from a perspective of appreciating that all it takes in taking power is doing all that it takes to do because what matters is to take power.
Money, for one, is an absolute overriding necessity and a willingness to spend it comes with it. Kalonzo does not have significant business interests that would show us a clear source of funding that would run a powerful presidential campaign. He will obviously depend on friends who must be willing to pay a price, but we all know that those ones would only come aboard if his candidature coagulates into a serious one.
Kalonzo will need men on the ground working for him 24/7 for him to reach the crucial corners of this country in 2027. Azimio came way short in this regard in 2022 which is why they can have nobody to blame for their failure to take power.
Ruto’s party, Kenya Kwanza, opened political bureaus in most of regions in this country at grassroots level for effective participation of the people. A powerful campaign cannot not be well-oiled.
Kalonzo, like Raila, must improve on the management of the people in his command centres. A command centre must run like a business centre when political business grinds in ways that can be determined, controlled measured.
It takes smart political minds to propel a command centre and its principle candidate to effectiveness and rapid growth. A good example was Ruto’s campaign scheduling and execution which meant a work rate more than two-thirds of what Raila would manage.
Bringing onboard tribal and regional kingpins is another task Kalonzo must ask himself if he can manage. The likes of Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, Hassan Joho, and others have ambitions of their own. The Luhya honchos are keen to consolidate support at the grassroots.
Maybe if Kalonzo managed to secure one of the two, especially Wetang’ula, he would reap some significant support. However, the Raila factor still resurrects here because he still wields significant support in the community where he claims to have blood roots in.
The politics of Kenya have morphed, and although Kalonzo has remained a player in it, he has wallowed in the miasma of powerlessness for more than 15 years now.
The lack of power in critical places means a loss of control of people who matter in pushing one to power. While Azimio claimed to have the support of the ‘deep state’ that ended in a whimper. Ruto had grown roots being a man who keeps his word and who gets things done straight on.
Uhuru could not curtail Ruto, and he was the President pouring vitriol against his deputy calling him a thief and all. Now Ruto is in power. It will take a powerful communication machine to weaken Ruto albeit the economy is struggling.
If Ruto can steady the ship and lower the cost of living, the communication strategy for Kalonzo or any other presidential candidate will need critical thinking. Most importantly, Kalonzo must succeed in private political communication which means winning over a significant chunk of the political class from key regions of Kenya if his candidature is to take off.
Winning over the Kikuyu and other Mount Kenya ethnic communities, who are close to Kalonzo’s Kamba, is another effort Kalonzo cannot make. Unfortunately, nobody is yet to establish themselves as Kingpin in the region except that Ruto’s deputy Rigathi Gachagua is devotedly making effort.
There is possibility that the region can be divided in political affiliation, but being ones who understand the benefits of proximity to power, they will align themselves with a candidate with a huge chance of winning which makes it highly unlikely that they will abandon Ruto.
A fallout between Ruto and Gachagua would benefit Kalonzo if he became the opposition’s candidate in 2027, but Riggy G will mostly want to stay firmly put behind Ruto until 2032.
Mudavadi may wish to join the opposition early if it becomes clear that Riggy G will want to enter the presidential fray in 2032, but Mudavadi or Wetang’ula can only be enticed by a Raila endorsement. Of the two, Wetang’ula is a better political thinker although Mudavadi might have a better standing nationally.
