Ruto's delicate balancing act as pressure mounts

The President is in a situation in which he must accomplish various tasks at the same time but several factors, some not under his control, do not favour him.

His administration is faced with a banditry menace, a battered economy and a rejuvenated opposition that is now becoming a thorn in the flesh. 

The Kenya Kwanza administration was elected against a backdrop of increasing dissatisfaction in the former regime and Ruto has a huge task of restoring hope. People are already saying he is spending too much while still calling for a lean administration.

Political analyst Fred Sasia opines that the new administration might need to change tact soon to make alleviate Kenyans' lives instead of emphasising struggle and hard times

“The situation is tough, unemployment rate is high and life continues to be hard. Bandits seem not to be relenting and now there is a new problem creeping in — mass action from the opposition and activists,” Sasia told the Star.

The Kenyan economy, as in many parts of the world, has been hit hard by the lingering effects of the pandemic and the raging war in Ukraine.

There is no end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the global supply chains continue to be affected, thereby causing supply disruptions and a surge in inflation.

Ruto has maintained that his administration will remain focused on deliberately creating jobs, liberating enterprises from shylock-credit exploitation. He promises to do away with unfair regulation and empowering resource-poor farmers to produce and free them from indignity of relief food aid.

And as he prepares his first Budget, Treasury Cabinet Secretary Njuguna Ndung'u warned Kenyans to brace themselves for tough economic times. 

“From all the things we have analysed, the outlook for 2023 is not looking very good. There are clear signals that it is going to be a tough year,” Njuguna told a public hearing on the budget-making process in January.

Sasia asserted that a central puzzle in every new regime is how to ensure its supporters continue to hold onto hope.

“The opposition is casting aspersions on the belief that the previous regime was the problem. It is now evident that the problem is quite bigger than what politicians were voicing on campaign platforms,” he said.

Even as the President works towards reviving the economy and lowering the cost of living, the Opposition seems keen not give the President room to breathe.

Azimio leader Raila Odinga has issued six demands to Ruto, failure to which the Opposition will lead the country to mass action in 14 days.

Among other demands, Raila wants food subsidies restored to cushion Kenyans from the high cost of living.

He further wants taxes to come down within 14 days and the government to subsidise fees to realise a 100 per cent transition.

"If demands are not heeded within 14 days, we shall lead Kenyans to mass action across the country to restore sanity," Raila stated during a rally at Nairobi’s Jeevanjee Gardens on Wednesday.

Responding just hours after the rally, Ruto rubbished the list of demands saying nobody can threaten him or any other Kenyan.

He said his administration will end impunity, adding that everybody will obey the Constitution and respect the rule of law.

“Nobody is going to threaten Kenyans, nobody will drive this country using impunity,” the President said.

Luanda MP Dick Maungu told the Star the Opposition will not relent in pushing Ruto to make life bearable for Kenyans.

He said they will not watch as Kenyans continue to suffer at the hands of the Kenya Kwanza administration.

“We will continue to hold meetings with the people to push this government to deliver,” Maungu said.

Maungu criticised Opposition MPs who have since teamed up with Ruto, saying their move was informed by selfish interests.

Political commentator Daniel Orogo said Ruto could manage the Opposition by drawing MPs allied to Azimio to Kenya Kwanza.

“By doing this, he will render calls for mass action as insensitive and untimely,” Orogo, the African regional coordinator for Democracy Moves.

Ruto’s administration is also faced with a severe drought, which has continued to worsen in 21 of the 23 Arid and Semi-Arid counties.

The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance stands at 4.35 million based on 2022 Long Rains Food and Nutritional Security Assessment Report.

According to the latest report from the National Drought Management Authority, Kilifi, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Isiolo, Kitui and Kajiado counties are in the alarm stage.

Embu, Narok, Taita Taveta, Makueni, Meru, Nyeri and Lamu counties are in the alert drought phase.

Sasia said the hunger situation is more of a natural occurrence but the President told Kenyans it was a leadership problem.

“His supporters strongly believed his election was the solution in the offing; reality has started dawn, it's evident that the Kenyan hunger problem is bigger than was politicised. If the situation continues, the President might be forced to rescind his earlier cancellation of the subsidy programme,” he said.

In the recent past, Kenya has become increasingly insecure. It has experienced rampant banditry that continues to claim tens of lives.

Bandits have killed more than 100 civilians and 16 police officers in the six months, Interior CS Kithure Kindiki has confirmed.

Banditry in the arid and semi-arid north is a longstanding issue that Kenya has grappled with for decades, with authorities pointing to cattle raiding as the main cause.

Ruto has promised to act tough on insecurity in troubled areas of the North Rift region and other parts of the country, which have been hit  by banditry.

He has ordered the Kenya Defence Forces to conduct a joint security operation with the police in all banditry-prone areas starting Tuesday to combat lawlessness, which has hampered education and development and caused tensions among communities.

“We must do whatever it takes to bring peace to banditry areas. We will do everything possible to weed out a few criminals who must stop or we will force them to stop.”

In a bid to end insecurity, the military is also setting up a buffer zone along the borders of Turkana and Marsabit by building barracks in the two counties.

However, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride and Ruto's treacherous path would be like silk.

Sasia said banditry situation will not be won by guns and military artillery but by economic liberation.  

He said the government should focus on making a significant investment in elevating the lives of people from regions affected by the menace.

“The President, through relevant government institutions, should build schools, provide water, improve the roads network and use modern technology to practice agriculture. Once the troubled communities are no longer worried about basic needs and the younger generation is educated, banditry will die a natural death,” he explained.

Orogo held a contrary view, saying Ruto’s tactical approach and direct confrontation by ordering the joint security operation will make him a saviour. “If it succeeds, Ruto will come out the hero. Banditry is a problem that past regimes have not been able to eliminate,” he explained.

(Edited by V. Graham)