Will Owalo win over Nyanza?

The media optics of Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo engaged in a hearty discussion with President William Ruto in Homa Bay, and those of Governors Gladys Wanga (Homa Bay) and Anyang' Nyong'o (Kisumu) warmly receiving the President in Nyanza came as a surprise to many.

Such scenes would usually be difficult to imagine, and even outright impossible to believe. Five months ago, few wiould have expected them.

Then, the hostile rivalry between Raila Odinga’s Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Alliance and Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance was in the thick of high political octane. Things escalated following the controversial tallying and announcement of presidential election results on August 15, 2022, and the subsequent upholding of the outcome by the Supreme Court.

Many will still recall the tension that existed as both parties argued that they were the rightful winners of the 2022 presidential election. The matter came to a head when Azimio contested Ruto’s victory before the Supreme Court but were unable to sustain their case. The court found their evidence weak and dismissed some of it as "hot air."

The rivalry between President Ruto and Azimio Raila has been in existence for many years, starting from the activities that led Ruto to leave ODM ahead of the 2013 elections. He had been reelected as Eldoret North MP on the ODM ticket in 2007. He later joined hands with Uhuru Kenyatta, then the Minister for Finance and a Deputy Prime Minister, to form the Jubilee Alliance, that later morphed into the Jubilee Party in 2016.

The bad blood between the two ace politicians was a factor of the aftermath of the post-election violence that followed the 2007 election. Ruto accused Raila of failing to stand with him during his moment of need, when International Criminal Court Prosecutor Louis Moreno Ocampo, listed him as one of the six suspects in the post-election violence. Indeed, the narrative soon turned around to be that Raila had engineered his indictment before the ICC.

Having lent Raila steadfast support in the 2007 presidential race, Ruto and his supporters accused Raila of betrayal. The relationship got steadily polarized and even hostile, as a result. The two leaders have since kept to the essential minimum their tours of what are perceived to be each other’s strongholds.

Whenever they have tried to venture into the opponent’s backyard they have met with either a very cold reception or violence. During the 2022 campaigns, Ruto ran into hostile crowds in Kisumu. Raila’s chopper, conversely, was damaged in Uasin Gishu. Simply put, it has been difficult for leaders from Nyanza to work wclosely with Ruto, while Raila has the same experience with the Rift Valley.

Today, one man seems to be changing the game in Luo Nyanza and making it possible for the two sides of the divide to co-exist – and with the possibility that they could work together, happily.

ICT Cabinet Secretary Eliud Owalo surprised many when he came out openly in July 2019 to declare his support for Ruto.

The then Deputy President was then a beleaguered politician, in the crosshairs of Raila and Uhuru. Against all expectation, for leaders from Luo Nyanza, Owalo displayed immense courage by throwing his lot with the Kenya Kwanza side of the campaign, thereby contributing to President Ruto’s victory.

In recent times, CS Owalo has again defied the odds, this time reaching out across the aisle and bringing together former foes and enemies “to work together for the sake of societal development,” as was the refrain at his homecoming and thanksgiving event last week.

The CS has muddled through the waters of Nyanza and is winning over the hearts of former ODM-diehards, changing the direction of the politics in the region, through political soft power. He has elected to engage rather than to confront. His style is friendly and persuasive, devoid of the trademark bickering and combative mudslinging.

Soft power is enabling him to begin emerging as a part of a new generation of comparatively youthful leaders in Raila's Nyanza turf. His close relationships are with both ODM legislators and several leaders perceived to have no more time for Raila. Through this initiative, a number of Luo leaders have now expressed interest to work closely with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

Also supporting the team is the fire-eating lawyer and political activist, Miguna Miguna, who recently jetted back into the country after a four-year stay in forced exile. Miguna has umpteenth times exuded confidence that he is capable of liberating the Luos from the grip of ODM leader Raila Odinga.

Ex-Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero and former Migori county boss Okoth Obado are also part of the team hell-bent on snatching the vote-rich region from Raila's decades-long grip.

The CS’s forays in the region have thrown residents into a political spin. Being among the few leaders from Nyanza in President Ruto’s government, Owalo is blossoming after gaining the President's trust. As a result, his public profile and influence seems to grow by the day.

His thanksgiving event in Gangu village, Rarieda, was certainly a huge statement to political observers as all the top guns from Kenya Kwanza government, including President Ruto, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, attended the event. It would appear that as political dynamics in Nyanza continue to unfold, the hand of Owalo in the region’s destiny will be difficult to ignore.

He has proved he is going to be a key player, a force to reckon with, having been pivotal in mobilizing the locals to support the government through his relief food distribution initiative and network connectivity.

The CS’s unwavering efforts to meet the local leaders are slowly changing the perception of people towards President Ruto and the Kenya Kwanza government. Slowly, but surely, he is causing the leaders in the region to realise that their communities can still benefit from the government by working closely with the Kenya Kwanza. Already, the benefits are real, with projects valued at over Sh3.2 billion so far commissioned.

Nyanza leaders are catching on, if last week’s activities and sentiments are anything to go by. They are now asking the President to increase the number of appointed leaders from the Nyanza region.

The next few months will be interesting to watch in Nyanza. And with them, CS Owalo is certainly the one man to watch, too, as he broadens his influence across the region.

This is particularly so as Nyanza begins waking up to the reality that at some point, a new kingpin will have to replace Raila, as he prepares for retirement from active politics.