This strategy reportedly involves
behind-the-scenes efforts to encourage at least one major presidential
contender to break away from the opposition and run independently.
Such a
scenario could lead to a run-off in the 2027 elections, as no single candidate
would likely achieve the constitutionally mandated 50 per cent plus one vote.
In that case, the breakaway candidate could then endorse President William Ruto
in the run-off.
While controversial, this is not an
unsophisticated plan. However, barring unforeseen developments, all indications
suggest strong opposition momentum that could challenge Ruto’s re-election in
2027, regardless of political deals, and there appears to be only one
opposition figure who might fit the profile of such a spoiler candidate. Even
in a run-off, the electorate’s choice could still prevail.
It is against this backdrop that the
draft Assumption of the Office of the President and Transition of Executive
Authority Bill, 2025, has sparked concern. Critics view the Bill as an attempt
by political operatives to use legal means to bypass constitutional safeguards.
The constitution already provides
clear guidelines on how a president assumes office, including the transfer of
powers and security after a president-elect is sworn in.
However, the draft law
reportedly proposes granting a declared president-elect access to presidential
powers and security immediately, even if the declaration is under legal
challenge. Such a move, critics warn, could enable misuse of power during the
transition period.
There are also concerns about the
Bill’s provision allowing the Chief Registrar to administer the oath of office,
a role constitutionally reserved for the Chief Justice or Deputy Chief Justice.
Observers suggest this could undermine the judiciary’s role in safeguarding the
integrity of presidential transitions.
Furthermore, the Bill allows the
transition committee’s activities to remain confidential and imposes heavy
penalties, a maximum fine of Sh10 million or up to seven years in prison, for
non-compliance. Critics argue this secrecy could hinder transparency and accountability.
It remains to be seen whether
Parliament will support or reject the proposed legislation. One hopes there
will be enough sober-minded lawmakers to recognize the implications and act in
the best interest of constitutional democracy.
The writer is a political
commentator based in the US.
