It would be foolhardy for anyone to state with any certainty what lies ahead in 2023. Only God knows.
However, we can do the next best thing and predict based on the past and known facts. Certain things can be predicted just as good as predicting the sun will rise on the east and set on the west.
Before delving into what some of these predictions are from my bird’s eye view, a thing or two about what we know about the Ruto presidency thus far. Correction: a thing or two about the Ruto era, which is the first thing we know, namely, we are at the beginning of a long Ruto rule.
Following a piece in which I opined before the elections that William Ruto, then UDA presidential candidate, would easily change the Constitution and extend his presidency beyond the two-term limit, an objective and long-time supporter of the President told me I was off in my conclusion.
My friend, who lives in America, went on to articulate several reasons why this will not be the case. “It’s not in his character,” he told me, adding “he’ll have his 10 years and leave just as it should be.”
After the election of Ruto was settled by the Supreme Court, I returned to theUS and a few days later, I had a chat with my friend. One thing I immediately noticed—and this is quite consistent with who he is and why I call him an “objective” Ruto supporter — is he was not gloating.
He did, however, give me a mild version of “I told you so,” because long before Azimio and Kenya Kwanza formed, my friend told me Ruto will beat Raila and provided reasons not informed by the fact he is a Kalenjin. In other words, his support for Ruto had little or nothing to do with the fact the president is his tribesman.
The primary reason he provided for why Ruto will win which has been borne out by the facts is Ruto’s hustler narrative was too powerful to be overcome even by the system.
Like many, I was skeptical that was the case but, look who was right! Put another way he was walking with a swagger as if he had the proverbial bigger balls.
He has, in fact, proven he has them hasn’t he?
Which leads me to my first prediction: Ruto will be a more powerful and more effective President than Uhuru Kenyatta ever was. He may not extend his rule beyond the 10-year limit in the Constitution, but his stamp and authority as well as his legacy will continue to be felt long after he leaves office akin to that of President Daniel Moi.
By defeating Azimio leader Raila Odinga, who was backed by Uhuru and therefore the system, Ruto ran a more sophisticated and effective campaign and won against all odds. There are those who argue the system was not with Raila or that Uhuru played him but be that as it may, by winning he has already redefined Kenyan politics forever.
One need not be a rocket scientist to know Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has reached out to Ruto’s playbook left behind in Karen to start plotting his own survival and pathway to State House.
Ruto intentionally left the 2022 playbook behind because he has a new one for 2027 and beyond. Look for the President to methodically execute the plays in that playbook, which he already has with more to come.
Lurking somewhere in there is a genuine desire to end the rotation of the presidency between two communities.
That would be consistent with Ruto’s declaration that voters in 2022 finally slayed tribalism as the determinative factor in our presidential elections.
I agree and pray that’s the case.
