Doubts arise whether the President is committed to not only campaign for Raila aggressively but also contain internal turmoil threatening Azimio.
The raging storm in Azimio may hurt Uhuru's own inheritance plans and hand Deputy President William Ruto an easy ride to State House.
A soft underbelly is the weakness of a person or institution, the spot where they are vulnerable and easily attacked. In the case of Uhuru, it could constitute his inability to bring rivals together against DP Ruto. And his own pride, ambition and desire to remain Mt Kenya kingpin when he leaves office. He wouldn't want to jeopardise that with a failed Raila presidential bid.
While the President has made it clear he prefers Raila to succeed him, a litany of what analysts have termed political blunders and miscalculations, is threatening to throw Azimio into disarray.
Reports the President may keep off Raila's presidential campaigns in his Mt Kenya backyard, where he has influence, may further complicate Uhuru's game plan against Ruto.
“Raila will have to do the heavy lifting in Mt Kenya without Uhuru. To me this is part of the indecisiveness by the President to firmly take charge of his own succession plans,” former Kasarani MP John Njoroge said.
Njoroge said the writing has been on the wall that the President was never to personally lead Raila's campaigns in Mt Kenya, as that would hurt his legacy. Uhuru himself perpetuated untruths that Raila would ruin the region. He can't unring that bell though he said he was wrong in demonising the ODM leader.
He may not wish to risk putting himself on the line for someone who, despite the glowing rhetoric, is not widely beloved or trusted. If Raila goes down in Mt Kenya, Uhuru by his side, it will be difficult for Uhuru to say he's still the kingpin of the Mountain and keep his traction in politics, teh former MP said.
From the failed push to steady the One Kenya Alliance, despite several secret meetings in Nairobi and Mombasa, to the botched bid to rally all the Oka bigwigs behind Raila, Uhuru's succession plans have been marred by confusion.
Initially, it was hoped that a solid political deal between Oka and Raila's ODM party would easily dwarf Ruto's bid to succeed his boss after a nasty falling out over succession. That didn't seem to work.
On Thursday, former State House Comptroller Franklin Bett said the President's failed move to firm up a political deal between Oka and Raila teams could have damaged his strategy.
“The Oka falling out and the ultimate reunion between Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula with Ruto threw the succession game plan into problems,” Bett said.
Oka was made up of Mudavadi's ANC, Wetang'ula's Ford Kenya, Kalonzo Musyoka's Wiper and Gideon Moi's Kanu.
The initial plan was to have Raila team up with Oka in a broad-based opposition alliance to face Ruto at the ballot.
However, citing plans to short change them to back Raila again, Mudavadi and Wetang'ula in January joined forces with Ruto and birthed the Kenya Kwanza Alliance.
Kalonzo and Gideon remained in Oka but with divided loyalty as the former crafted his own political future without Raila.
Observers say the President's inability to have Mudavadi and Wetang'ula stick together in Oka for a deal with Raila was a major political setback with far-reaching ramifications for his succession plans.
What is seen as part of Uhuru's flop is his failed bid to tame Kalonzo — a seemingly indispensable Azimio pillar in the State House game plan — from bolting from Azimio, 82 days to the polls.
After the Oka split, the President had managed to work out a strategy that brought on board 26 political parties under the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya umbrella, including Jubilee and ODM outfits.
Despite months of behind-the-scenes negotiations and push and pull over its brand, the alliance was unveiled at the KICC in March.
However, the push and pull over the selection of the running mate after Uhuru managed to broker a deal on the Raila presidency could be the straw that would break the camel's back.
Kalonzo is now playing hard ball against Uhuru's efforts to have him team up with Raila and he has rejected a proposal to take up the yet-to-be-created Chief Minister's position. Instead, he has declared he will be on the presidential ballot and has named a running mate, Andrew Sunkuli.
Kalonzo had claimed he needed talks with Raila and Uhuru to unlock the running mate puzzle but was forced to go for 'humiliating' panel interviews after a lot of pressure.
His allies claim the President would have talked to Raila, if he was really committed to have Kalonzo deputise him.
Kalonzo was offered a new position that will be created if Azimio wins the presidency.
“We will not agree to a position that is not anchored in any law,” Kalonzo ally Makueni MP Dan Maanzo said.
The MP said the Wiper boss, as it stands, remains a presidential candidate in the August 9 general election and will not yield to any talks that are not backed by law.
The Wiper boss unveiled Sunkuli as his running mate on Monday, moments before Raila named Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua as his deputy.
Kalonzo complained he had always been forced to sacrifice for Raila without any reciprocity, insisting he will face his rivals at the ballot on the Wiper ticket.
While Kalonzo's move threw Raila's game into jeopardy, it also exposed the President's weak grasp of his own succession plans when the DP's Kenya Kwanza machine was taking shape.
The decision also left the President with egg on his face, given that Kalonzo had claimed he agreed to join Azimio based on Uhuru's assurance that he would negotiate for his role in the coalition.
Kalonzo had insisted the President should be the guarantor of all the talks between him and Raila, given his serious trust deficit issues with the ODM boss since the days of Nasa coalition.
'It would be very tricky for the President because it was clear he was key in Raila's reunion with Kalonzo on the basis of a certain expectation of being named running mate,” analyst Alexander Nyamboga said..
Nyamboga argued that should Kalonzo go all the way to the ballot, then it would give Ruto an easy ride to State House .
Before Kalonzo unveiled his running mate, there were reports the President held talks with him and Raila to unlock the impasse and have him accept the chief minister position.
However, the talks, which included two at State House Nairobi and one at Kalonzo's Karen home, hit a dead end after the Wiper boss stuck to his guns.
Analysts now say Kalonzo's walkout has exposed the President's miscalculation, threatening to nosedive Raila's recent gains and complicate his fifth stab at the presidency.
There are fears that without the support of Kalonzo's key Ukambani nation —estimated to have nearly two million votes — Raila's bid to succeed President Kenyatta could become a pipe dream.
However, National Assembly Deputy Majority Whip Maoka Maore insisted the President is in charge of his succession.
"Wait and see, the President is firmly in control," he told the Star.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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