At least 13 governors are facing tight races that could make or break their political careers as they defend their seats on August 9.
They are facing a major threat from their rivals who are determined to make them one-term county chiefs or destroy their political careers.
In the 13 counties, sitting governors are walking gingerly as a newcomers and seasoned politicians mount aggressive campaigns
They include governors James Nyoro (Kiambu), Francis Kimemia (Nyandarua), Ndiritu Muriithi (Laikipia), Hillary Barchok (Bomet), Joseph ole Lenku (Kajiado), Charity Ngilu (Kitui) and Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga).
Also facing stiff competition are Lee Kinyanjui (Nakuru), Amos Nyaribo (Nyamira), Wycliffe Wangamati (Bungoma), Kiraitu Murungi (Meru), Ali Korane (Garissa) and Wilbur Ottichilo (Vihiga).
The just-concluded party nominations have brought to the fore the cut-throat competition the county chiefs face.
Korane will face Nathif Jama of the Upya coalition, which is touted as among the popular parties in the Northeastern, while Wangamati is battling Senate Speaker Ken Lusaka who is keen on making a comeback in the county.
Nyaribo is facing stiff competition from ODM’s Timothy Bosire in an area backing Raila Odinga almost to a man. Ottichilo is in the race alongside big names such as George Khaniri, former Governor Moses Akaranga and Alfred Agoi of ANC.
In Kiambu, Nyoro is facing Senator Kimani Wamatangi, who has since clinched the UDA ticket. Perceived as a first-timer, it is yet to be seen if Nyoro’s new political networks will deliver the vote. Wamatangi won the Senate seat in 2017 with 732,625 votes.
Political observers say the governor, who is riding on the hope Jubilee will gain momentum, has an uphill task of winning a term on his own.
In Kitui, Wiper party has nominated ex-Governor Julius Malombe as its candidate for the governor's to face incumbent Charity Ngilu.
Ngilu is in Azimio la Umoja together with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. Pundits believe she will be rattled by the Kalonzo move to pick Malombe.
In 2017, Ngilu won with 169,990 votes, followed by David Musila’s 114,827 and Malombe who got 74,681 votes.
Prof Gitile Naituli, a political commentator, said Ngilu stands to face the wrath of Kalonzo in the ensuing circumstances.
“Kalonzo has solid support in Kitui. The primaries — the Machakos Senate by-election — showed how strong he can be. He won in the Kitui ward by-election and lost marginally in Makueni.”
“He is a force in Ukambani, therefore, Ngilu may lose the race to Malombe,” the former NCIC commissioner told the Star on Thursday.
In Nyandarua, Jubilee is yet to settle the duel between incumbent Francis Kimemia and former Water Cabinet Secretary Sicily Kariuki.
But already, danger is said to be lurking in the UDA choice of Moses Kiarie — famously known as Badilisha — for the ticket. He got 34,472 votes in 2017 against Kimemia’s 228,219.
Political analyst Martin Andati said the parameters have changed and may not work in favour of the incumbent.
“Kimemia is sitting on slippery ground. The mountain is tilting towards UDA. Badilisha is very strong. People expected so much from him as head of Public Service but his performance has been mediocre.”
“Added to his political alignment (Azimio), he will be among the first casualties in the mountain,” Andati said.
The Laikipia battle pits Governor Muriithi — chairman of the Raila Campaign Board — against his predecessor Joshua Irungu. The latter beat Patrick Mariru in the UDA nominations.
Irungu won in 2013 but Ndiritu made a comeback as an independent in 2017, though with a margin of about 2,000 votes. The governor has dared his competitor to a duel.
“I am a child of Mau Mau and if you want to compete with me, step forward…let us compete democratically and I will defeat you,” he said to his supporters recently.
He expressed confidence in defeating his rivals owing to his performance record.
Governor Lee Kinyanjui is facing stiff competition from Senator Susan Kihika, who is seeking to take over through UDA.
The governor recently told NTV that he has done a lot to deserve a second term, among them the facilitation of Nakuru to be elevated to a city.
He is also demonstrating successes in the health sector, water and ongoing expansion of the city’s sewer network.
“A lot would go to waste if we don’t run. The policies we started, such as tolerance, may be abandoned,” he said.
In an apparent acknowledgement of the imminent threat, the governor said, “For us to get the Nakuru seat, we have to make a certain retreat and see a way forward.”
Naituli said Kihika has a better chance than Lee.
“There is no way Kihika will lose. Her father, Kihika Kimani, employed many Kikuyus so they have a lot of respect for the family. He won in Nyandarua, Molo, Njoro and Laikipia.”
“People have not forgotten. Because people are grateful to the father, she may get a lot of votes. She is also quiet and looks harmless,” Naituli said.
In Bomet, the incumbent is facing off with former Governor Isaac Rutto, whose bid for a second term was cut short by ‘being on the wrong side in the 2017 race’.
It is believed that Barchok has the advantage of the UDA wave but his chances are said to be complicated in the face of Rutto supporting DP William Ruto for the presidency.
Rutto is said to have a solid track record, while Barchok “has no advantage of serving full term but is being compared with the first governor”.
“That is going to be a very tight contest. It can go either way. People may go against the UDA grain as was seen in Eldoret where the voters independently voted the governor candidate against Ruto choice,” Andati said.
In Kajiado, Andati said Lenku has a slim chance in the face-off with former Governor David Nkedianye.
He said the politics of the group ranches will come at a cost to Lenku, including in his own home where a number are yet to get title deeds.
He said the incumbent's only chance is if Nkedianye splits the vote with Katoo ole Metito, who has bagged the UDA ticket.
“Lenku can sneak through, if the clan is divided. But Kajiado has a heavy metropolitan vote. Running mates will matter in this race,” Andati said.
Lenku faces two giants in the race, with Katoo believed to have a strong grassroots§ network stemming from his 10 years as MP.
Analysts warn that if Jubilee and ODM split the vote, it will work against President Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
In Meru, Kiraitu is said to have a high chance of retaining the seat.
“His Imenti people are clever. They don’t divide the votes. If they stick together with Kawira Mwangaza, they pose a threat to Mithika Linturi,” Naituli said.
Waiguru’s chances, he holds, are dependent on former Cabinet minister Martha Karua’s moves in the August vote, he said..
“I don’t think Waiguru has a chance,"Naituli said, "not because of Ngirici but if Karua runs. If Karua doesn’t run, she has a chance. If Martha Karua runs, she will be governor having given Waiguru a run for her money in the 2017 election,” he added.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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