There will be tears in the coming elections. A lot of them.
You only need to consider how long these campaigns have been going on, and the frantic moves in the latest installment of defections to know that when the dust finally settles, thousands of candidates will be left holding huge debts, disappointments and a long list of enemies.
It is worse if the people who squandered your money promising you a direct path to power have moved on and left you only in the company of your warm tears. But let’s backpedal a bit to the here and now.
President Uhuru Kenyatta last week signed the Political Parties Bill into law. In this country, bills and laws can have very many chapters and clauses, but we remember only the parts that politicians sing about like parrots. Predictably, therefore, we only know this new law as permitting the formation of electoral coalitions.
Those who oppose it, however, hold that the law was created for one man, to help him fashion out coalitions of parties in such a way that he can secure support in unlikely zones without necessarily letting his hated party colours appear there.
This would be very clever if it was true. Except that there will be problems either way. Coalitions always have problems.
Back in 2002, Narc brilliantly conducted joint nominations. In fact, if not for the drama involving Raphael Tuju and Moses Owiti in Rarieda, as well as that of Fred Gumo and Betty Tett in Westlands, one wouldn’t have known the demarcations between the NAK, LDP and other factions of Narc.
It wasn’t until the falling out from the MoU saga in 2003, when the LDP wing summoned its troops that it was possible to know who had come to the coalition through which door. It is hard to imagine coalitions in 2022 are going to agree to conduct joint nominations as Narc did in 2002. It takes courage, and there is almost none in existence in today’s political sphere.
The emergence of briefcase and village parties also means that overrated tiny gatherings want their names to be part of the political conversations, complete with demands for concessions and Cabinet slots. For some of these political parties, the membership is comprised entirely of the party leader’s inflated ego, but don’t let him hear you saying that! There is an exception.,
The Democratic Action Party-Kenya, which is associated with Defence CS Eugene Wamalwa, had a January to die for. For all intents and purposes, DAP-K is an offshoot of Moses Wetang'ula's Ford Kenya, the proverbial phoenix rising fromthe ashes of the long wars, coups and counter-coups in the latter.
In outlook, it set out to inherit mostly the Ford Kenya zones, should the perennial stagnation in the latter lead to its death. DAP-K must, therefore, have been surprised by just how much they managed to harvest following the Musalia Mudavadi earthquake at Bomas of Kenya. If half of fleeing ANC legislators found a home in ODM, the other half nestled comfortably in DAP-K.
As if that were not enough, Kisumu West MP Olago Aluoch, who has repeatedly defied the ODM wave to win the seat on a Ford Kenya ticket along with Lwande Oneko, son of freedom fighter and Ford Kenya legend Achieng’ Oneko, were also reported to have crossed to DAP-K.
The underlying message was that the leopard party was replacing Ford Kenya beyond Luhyaland. And I guarantee you that many more politicians in Luoland, especially those who find ODM primaries too much of a headache for one electoral cycle, will be moving to the new outfit.
If we were to borrow football parlance, the marquee signing of DAP-K has to be former Rift Valley regional commissioner George Natembeya. Like a star player, the party has formulated their method of play around him. His homecoming was a passionate event with a larger crowd than the former Oka principals ever managed in their time.
It was near-presidential stuff, with the hands of the state clearly evident. The party had arrived. The hunting leopard had captured big game and was joining the premier league.
In a way, DAP-K is the living confirmation of the political mistakes of ANC leader Mudavadi and Ford Kenya boss Moses Wetang’ula. The flight from their parties is a manifestation of politicians signing deals that don’t conform to the desires of their people. In fact, aside from the one-way moves, there hasn’t been any remarkable defection from any of the other parties in Western to the new alliance between DP Ruto and Mudavadi. There are tougher times ahead, though.
Within the Azimio movement, the only one so far to indicate it will sign deals with all willing political parties, there will be very delicate balancing acts when the push and shove between parties in the regions starts.
No party considers itself small, so nearly all of them will attempt to create spheres of influence in their tribal bases, and demand the zoning of such areas for their candidates. The challenge for bigger national parties in these coalitions, such as ODM, will be when to draw the line on the need to have a strong majority in the next Parliament, while also making concessions to benefit the presidential vote.
At face value, it makes sense to let all parties in a coalition to run their own candidates below the presidential contest, because it means several popular candidates from different parties can help mobilise a larger presidential vote.
However, this would ultimately repeat the mistakes of Nasa, where partners divided the votes and lost several seats in the process. Nowhere is this going to be trickier than Western Kenya, the new hunting ground of the leopard party.
But if Azimio can find an agreeable formula to make all constituent parties happy, DAP-K is an example of a movement it will like to have on its side. All indications are that it is punching above its weight, and will be an integral part in helping Azimio lock out DP Ruto out of Western. It has effortlessly provided a holding ground for those fleeing the chaos in Western’s erstwhile political formations.
I wonder if it is too much of a dream to say it may be that region’s future political movement, but as things stand, the stealthy leopard is holding its own quite admirably. It’s hunting season in the Kenyan political jungle.
(Edited by V. Graham)
