No one can seriously argue Deputy President William Ruto does not have what it takes to mount a formidable presidential campaign.
He does and we have already seen it at play though indications are Ruto has likely peaked in his bid and things can only go south for him looking ahead.
Though the tale-tell signs were there initially, Ruto’s campaign stagnation or reversal of fortunes manifested during his rally in Eldoret, which is now remembered more for what Senator Mithika Linturi said than anything else.
When Ruto failed to admonish Linturi on the spot and only belatedly apologised for the senator’s reckless remarks, he saddled himself with baggage that has been there more as a tag-along nuisance from his perspective but now something that has awakened in many a voter’s minds.
When police were forced to use teargas to disperse a rowdy group at Ruto’s rally in Jacaranda, Embakasi, it was just another sign of what lies ahead, especially when things get more heated after campaigns officially start later in May.
This presents multiple layers of headaches and headwinds for Ruto, which the man he is trying to beat in August does not.
In fact, it is best to see the impending duel between ODM’s Raila Odinga and Ruto at the August poll as one between an advantaged and a disadvantaged candidate.
The advantaged candidate is ODM leader and presidential flag bearer of the Azimio movement. Raila’s advantages are numerous and unbeatable.
First, he has the backing of those who count the votes — or at least most of them. If you believe we have shaken the age-old notion that it is not the voters but those who count the votes that matter, then you are encouraged to shake loose of that notion.
Second, the vote counters only put their tools to use when a candidate they back is doing poorly or losing at the polls. If the candidate is doing just fine and is ahead in the vote count, there is no need to intervene.
Just going by who is lining up behind Raila and Ruto among all governors and other key politicians across the country, Raila has an insurmountable advantage to reach 50%+1 and carry more than 24 counties on his own and without the help of the “vote counters”.
Third, Raila has the experience of mounting successful presidential campaigns with proven leadership abilities that make everyone vying against him look like an amateur. Running a nationwide campaign is not just about experience and leadership skills, it is the network the best of them has and even though Ruto has done his best to establish one, he is at least more than 24 years behind Raila.
There are more but those three will propel Raila to State House.
For his part, Ruto has insurmountable disadvantages.
The biggest one is Ruto is daring those who control the levers of power to stop him from becoming president.
Yes, the late President Daniel Moi succeeded in thwarting efforts by some powerful individuals to stop him from succeeding Jomo Kenyatta but he did so not by daring them. He cleverly strategised with the help of then Attorney General, the late Charles Njonjo.
Some will argue that the system was defeated in 2002, when Moi’s then project and now President Uhuru Kenyatta was rejected. However, as I have said before, were Raila the opposition candidate, Uhuru would have been made president in 2002.
The other disadvantage Ruto has is that the house he built in Mt Kenya region was built on sand. The rain is yet come, neither has the wind to blow away Ruto’s house but as the Swahili saying goes, the sign of the rain is the clouds.
Then there is the power of incumbency Ruto has yet to get the full dosage.
