An age-old adage states, “It's not over until the fat lady sings.”
The 2022 elections are shaping up to be a pulsating conundrum of mystique, backstabbing, new alliances, and betrayal. We are only at the pre-game show before the real action commences.
The elephant in the room is the Mt Kenya vote and where it will go. A decisive voting bloc that is being courted by ODM leader Raila Odinga and Deputy President William Ruto.
The latter has staked his presidential bid on securing the Mt Kenya voting bloc to add to his Rift Valley co-ethnic voting bloc to gain a decisive advantage. Raila, on his part is counting on unhinging the Mt Kenya bloc from that of the Rift Valley to gain the political advantage. The critical question is whether Railaphobia in the region will cost him the presidency.
A quick background to the genesis of Railaphobia is rooted in the dynastic competition between Raila’s father Jaramogi Odinga and Uhuru’s father Jomo Kenyatta. Political mobilisation in the region, which was Jomo’s backyard, constructed the Odinga family as being anti-Kenyatta and by extension anti Kikuyu.
Almost 40 years after the unceremonious Limuru Conference that alienated Jaramogi, in 2007 his son Raila was locked in a bitter tussle with a Kikuyu leader — Mwai Kibaki. Raila’s mantra of 41 against 1 (meaning all Kenya’s ethnic nations against the Kikuyu), led to ethnic bloodletting that had heretofore not been experienced in Kenya. Five years later, in 2013, another Kikuyu politician — Uhuru — was facing a career ending trial at the International Criminal Court.
In Mt Kenya, Raila was painted as a ruthless and conniving politician who wanted to eliminate his biggest rival, Uhuru, by having him tried and convicted at The Hague. Raila’s electoral loss to Uhuru in 2017 did not help matters particularly because of his withdrawal from the second round of voting.
This was seen as more evidence he was not a fair player and had an axe to grind with the Kikuyu of Mt Kenya. Whether these historical memories and caricatures of Raila as a Kikuyu hater are real or perceived makes little difference. The political reality for Raila is that generations of Kikuyu have been conditioned to believe he does not have their best interest at heart. That he has an axe to grind with them. Raila’s perception as a hater of Mt Kenya is etched into the mind of many residents from the 2007, 2013 and 2017 elections. This will be a tough nut to crack in the run-up to the election. Perception in politics has a crude way of shaping itself into reality.
Raila’s biggest challenge will be to unhinge the Mt Kenya/Rift Valley political bromance started by Jomo and Daniel Moi and continued by Uhuru and Ruto. According to the IEBC, the GEMA or Mt Kenya vote bloc of about six million added to Rift Valley’s approximately three million, places the DP as a front runner, if past election patterns remain the same.
There is little reason to think these patterns will be different because Kenya is still very ethiciSed in its voting paradigms. For Raila to win, he would need to run a clean sweep of the Coast’s about 1.5 million, Nyanza’s 2.5 million, Luhya’s 2.5 million, Kamba’s two million and Kisii’s one million for a total of almost 10 million. Assuming both candidates split the remainder of the two million votes left, Raila starts as an underdog as clean sweeps are rare.
Raila desperately needs to eat into Ruto’s Mt Kenya vote, which is notoriously unpredictable and has repeatedly rejected him. The endorsement from Uhuru and the Mt Kenya tycoons is no guarantee that the popular vote will go to Raila. In fact, this endorsement could be counterproductive for Raila because Mt Kenya voters (like all others) do not like leaders imposed on them.
The friends of Raila or Railaphiles will need to convince Mt Kenya voters that the candidate they so vilified in 2007, 2013 and 2017 is suddenly their savior. This is a tough task.
However, one thing is for sure. When the fat lady stops singing, Kenya will have come through a remarkably close and hotly contested election race and Railaphobia in Mt Kenya could well see the Odinga dynasty never make it to state house.
Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York, US [email protected] @dmonda1
