From now on, the length of time left to the 2022 General Election will be referred to in months, rather than years.
It will feel closer by the day. The rhetoric will go up a notch higher, money networks will get more active, politicians who have been hanging on certain parties only for convenience will show their true colours and aspirants seeking to remove incumbents will get deploy every method outside the rulebook.
I’m sure witchdoctors’ shrines are about to get busy too.
If you live in a major urban centre in Kenya, you are probably already aware of a predictable pattern where vote seeking can include allowing hawkers to sell on the streets and boda boda operators to enter areas previously prohibited, as soon as their group leaders meet senior politicians and raise these matters.
My fear is that Covid-19 control protocols may disappear too, because politicians need crowds, while businesses such as bars and restaurants, which have borne the brunt of these control measures, have large number of votes.
The rulebook is taking leave, for the 12 months from hell start right now!
Let us move away from the issues around the race to the race itself. Allow me first to eat humble pie.
I argued here a few weeks ago that I didn’t see the need for ODM leader Raila Odinga to concentrate on placating Central Kenya voters, as it may all be vanity. But after a gig organised by media mogul SK Macharia in Gatanga two weeks ago, and starring the former PM, I have changed my mind.
There was a serenity and self-assuredness to the function that made it obvious that the “selling Raila in Central is impossible” may soon die a natural death.
The high-powered support cast, featuring at least five Mt Kenya governors, made it even more pronounced.
Usually, one pointer to the effectiveness of a function and fear caused in opposing camps are noticeable when opponents start disparaging the said function, or struggling to show how small a crowd there was.
This happened after the Gatanga meeting, which was officially to celebrate the success of the Skiza callback programme. In my view, this was an eye opener. It confirmed that selling Raila in Central is easier when you start with such controlled, intimate meetings, rather than public rallies.
When sanitising a figure painted black by generations of the elite in that neighbourhood, the messaging has to take the small to big approach. And what better way that to align with the one of the biggest media houses in the country?
There is near-universal agreement in the land that the next election will be between someone and Deputy President William Ruto.
Indeed, the common phrase around the search for a compromise candidate on President Uhuru Kenyatta’s side of politics is “who can beat Ruto”. The sub story in this has always been who exactly is acceptable among the President’s Kikuyu community.
If you dig deeply into the constant fights among the former Nasa parties, you will reach the murram where the true underlying gimmick is that some ex principals want to go all the way to the ballot, just in case the Kikuyu community prefers someone else over Raila.
It is obviously not a sustainable philosophy on which to anchor a presidential run, but not much in Kenyan politics really is. The declaration of support by five governors and the relaxed nature of the Gatanga meet provide evidence that those who bank on Kikuyu rejection of Raila may be shooting in the dark.
NASA JOINT CANDIDATE
I have to be honest. I am one of those who can’t see why the President needs to spend time trying to get the ex Nasa principals to agree on a joint run.
If you ask me, an independent run by Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi may even be a good thing for the handshake brothers.
A Kalonzo run may lock Raila out of Ukambani, but it also helps lock Ruto too.
In any case, roping in the three Ukambani governors — Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and Alfred Mutua (Machakos) — into Uhuru’s succession blueprint may as well neutralise the threat posed by a Kalonzo run.
As for Mudavadi, given ODM’s massive presence in Western Kenya, the threat is totally exaggerated. Indeed, the last two electoral cycles are evidence that the Luhya community will most likely settle for the “bigger” candidate who guarantees victory, than the “homeboy” candidate peddling shared vernacular as the unifying doctrine.
I submit that President Uhuru should let NASA die and possibly preside at its solemn mass, and the ODM boss should deny the former constituent parties any cent from the parties fund to accelerate their collapse.
By giving money to Nasa parties, ODM is unwittingly giving life to its own hurdles on the road to State House, yet their entry into obscurity should be the more welcome event for the party’s power ambitions.
I hold the view that if this is a two-horse race, then the reason the President’s side is still attracting so many candidates is because he hasn’t openly declared support for Raila, while the latter still insists it is not yet time to discuss 2022.
When, and if, the President finally makes it known that he has settled on the ODM chief as his successor, I foresee a countrywide realignment taking place around two clear fronts, that of DP Ruto and the Uhuru-Raila formation.
BBI FACTOR
In the absence of the unpredictable BBI, both sides will have only the presidency and running mate slots to dangle around. Without the BBI, there will be no prime minister and deputies positions to use in striking pre-election deals.
This means that even though each side will desire to have heavy hitter politicians on their side — if they are the type that will make demands about being the candidate or the running mate — the only thing they’ll manage to do is unsettle their side too long into the campaign season.
This is one more reason the President should add fuel to the Nasa burning house.
I am persuaded that a two-horse race is good for the country, because it helps confine small tribal parties to the political dustbin where they belong.
Since the Constitution removed the small window where one would run for President just to boost their chances of being elected MP.
Losing a presidential race these days is a very lonely undertaking because there is no MP seat to retire to and one has to disappear into civilian life with the rest of us while praying for a five-year relevance.
Many of the donkeys trying to neigh like horses will see this reality by January next year and will opt for seats lower than the presidency, if only to avoid the five-year lonely season.
This is my way of telling Uhuru and his brother, Raila, that they don’t have to bend their backs too much for some of these people. Once they unleash their candidates, the country itself will fall perfectly into two sides, and the donkeys will politely bray heading to the direction of one of the two horses.
You can take my word for it.